Will Utah State surprise this season? Ranking the Aggies’ opponents, plus season predictions

Saturday night in Logan, inside Maverik Stadium, all things will start anew for Utah State football.

The 2024 season will finally be here, and with it, many hopes and dreams for Aggie football.

Dreams like wins against rivals old and new, a conference title and maybe even College Football Playoff contention, no matter how realistic or unrealistic those dreams may be.

There will be no shortage of teams hoping to prevent USU from making its hopes and dreams reality, of course. Twelve teams in the regular season, to be exact.

Who are the Aggies’ toughest opponents? The easiest? How many wins can Utah State realistically expect to come away with this season?

Let’s talk about it, starting with the most difficult games on USU’s schedule.

1. At No. 23 USC, Sept. 7

• ESPN FPI prediction for USC — 7.1 wins, 5.1 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives USC a 90.3% chance to win against the Aggies, with USU having a 9.7% chance to pull off the upset.

The Trojans are not expected to be all that close to the team they’ve been the last couple of years during the Caleb Williams era. Of course, that team was highly inconsistent anyway, going 11-3 the first year followed by a disappointing 8-5 campaign last season.

The Trojans under Lincoln Riley have been elite offensively and have struggled defensively. Though quarterback Miller Moss put on a show against SMU in the Holiday Bowl last winter, there are a lot of unknowns surrounding the Trojans entering this season, Moss included.

Throw in the Trojans’ schedule to start the year — in Las Vegas against LSU Week 1 and then at Michigan in Week 3 — and it is tempting to suggest that Utah State may have a chance to pull off a major early season upset. USU is the classic look-ahead opponent for USC.

There is also the fact that under Riley, USC has appeared vulnerable at times against Mountain West Conference opponents to start seasons, including against San Jose State last year and Fresno State the year before. USC won both of those games but it took incredible second half surges powered by Williams.

And yet, a trip to the Coliseum early in the Nate Dreiling era looks to be the most difficult game on the schedule for the Aggies. It is hard for anyone to win against the Trojans in L.A. and the Aggies will still be figuring out who they are in Week 2.

At Mountain West media days, Dreiling said it would take about a month, three or four games at least, to figure out what kind of team USU has this season.

USC remains one of the most talented teams in the country too, at No. 15, according to CBS Sports .

Also needing consideration is the fact that if USC loses to LSU — a real possibility — the game against USU will be vital to the Trojans’ season. USC plays Wisconsin after the Michigan game, followed by Minnesota and the Penn State. It is possible that the only win for USC in the opening month of the season could be against Utah State. Not the kind of game to overlook, even if it traditionally would be.

Prediction: USC 45, Utah State 35. The Aggies keep it close early, but the Trojans simply prove too much to handle offensively.

2. No. 12 Utah, Sept. 14

• ESPN FPI prediction for Utah — 7.8 wins, 4.4 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives Utah 80.5% chance to win the Battle of the Brothers, with USU’s chances coming in at 19.5%.

The Utah Utes are a better team than the USC Trojans. Let’s get that out of the way first. And Utah will be a steep challenge for the Aggies. There is no question about that.

Utah will come into the game with a defense that has the potential to be elite nationally. And then there is an offense that could end up being one of the more dynamic in the country. The last time Cam Rising led the Utah offense — the 2022-23 season — the Utes ranked No. 17 in the country in total offense.

Utah is being picked to win the Big 12 Conference and make the inaugural College Football Playoff for a reason.

The thing is, though, the game against the Utes is in Logan and you can be certain Aggie fans will show up to that one. Moreover, there is familiarity between the two teams, with enough former Utah high school football standouts on both rosters to take away some of the intimidation factor Utah may have.

There’s also the fact that Utah tends to play things a bit conservatively before conference play and against an offense with the potential of Utah State’s. That opens the door somewhat.

Will Utah State upset the Utes? Probably not, but the Aggies will have the home crowd, rivalry emotions and will be a difficult team to scout, with only one real game for Utah to pore over beforehand to get a sense of USU.

Utah State is a new team this year in many ways and it could be a real benefit to them against Utah.

Throw in that Dreiling was a part of a major upset or two while the defensive coordinator at New Mexico State — most notably, those Aggies went to Auburn and upset the Tigers — and it is fair to say the Aggies have a chance.

Prediction: Utah 34, Utah State 28. The Aggies make the Utes sweat a bit in the first half, but a late score by USU makes the game look a little closer than it was in the end.

3. Boise State, Oct. 5

• ESPN FPI prediction for Boise State — 8.2 wins, 4.3 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives the Broncos given 77.2% chance to beat the Aggies, with USU given a 22.8% to hold serve at home.

Until proven otherwise, Utah State will not be given the benefit of the doubt against the Boise State Broncos.

Year after year — whether at home in Logan or in Boise — the Broncos handily defeat the Aggies, proving the better team in every facet.

Here are some of the recent scores:

• 2023 — Boise State wins 45-10.
• 2022 — Boise State wins 42-23.
• 2021 — Boise State wins 27-3.
• 2020 — Boise State wins 42-13.
• 2019 — Boise State wins 56-21.

The Broncos have beaten the Aggies in 20 of the past 21 meetings between the programs.

Could Utah State shock everyone and beat Boise State? Sure, it could happen. But it isn’t likely to. And Utah State hasn’t done enough to earn the benefit of the doubt. Not when it comes to Boise State.

Prediction: Boise State 45, Utah State 24. Another loss, in the same vein as the many that have come before.

4. At Washington State, Nov. 9

• ESPN FPI prediction for Washington State — 7.1 wins, 4.9 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives Washington State a 74.1% to defeat the Aggies, with USU coming in with a 25.9% chance to pull off the upset on the road.

Utah State isn’t a stranger to going into Pullman, Washington, and upsetting the Cougars. The Aggies did just that in 2021, a win that kickstarted the most successful season in Utah State history (as a member of the MW).

These Cougars could be vulnerable as the 2021 iteration was. Under head coach Jake Dickert, Washington State hasn’t won more than seven games in a single season and was 5-7 overall last year.

And though improvement is expected this season, much of that has to do with WSU playing a MW slate of games, as opposed to its former Pac-12 slate.

Washington State will be coming off a trip to San Diego State when it plays Utah State and it is possible that the Cougars will let their foot off the gas, what with the Aggies and then the New Mexico Lobos their opponents in consecutive weeks.

Oregon State, probably the biggest game — emotionally — on WSU’s schedule after its rivalry game with Washington, will be beckoning.

Washington State should be a better team than Utah State — the Cougars, until recently, were a Power Five program — but the Cougars were fairly mediocre on both sides of the ball in 2023 and that isn’t likely to change in a dramatic way this season.

Prediction: Utah State 48, Washington State 43. Neither defense does much stopping of the other, but the Aggies’ offense is just slightly more effective and explosive.

5. At Wyoming, Oct. 26

• ESPN FPI prediction for Wyoming — 5.5 wins, 6.6 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives Wyoming a 55.7% chance to win the Bridger Rifle, while Utah State has a 44.3% to come out with a rivalry win.

When Utah State and Wyoming meet, the games are all about who is on the latest run. Since the series renewed in 2001, the winner has usually been in the middle of a winning streak against their rivals. From 2001 to 2007, it was Wyoming on top. From 2011 through 2015, it was Utah State.

Wyoming won back-to-back against the Aggies in 2016 and 2017 and Utah State returned the favor with back-to-back wins over the Cowboys in 2018 and 2019.

Currently, Wyoming is riding a two-game winning streak in the series, which means the Aggies should win this year’s game, right?

The Craig Bohl era is over at Wyoming, with Jay Sawvel taking over. Traditionally, the coach after the legend rarely maintains success in the long term, but in the short term it usually works out.

The game being in Laramie favors the Cowboys, but they are a pretty big unknown at this point. Not too dissimilar from the Aggies themselves.

In recent losses, Wyoming has bullied the Aggies. And Utah State has tried to course correct with improved development and recruiting, particularly via the NCAA transfer portal.

Whether it will pay off or not will go a long way in determining whether the Aggies can get a key conference road win.

Prediction: Utah State 42, Wyoming 28. The Aggies’ offense proves too much for the Cowboys, while the USU defense does enough to limit Wyoming’s attack.

6. UNLV, Oct. 11

• ESPN FPI prediction for UNLV — 5.7 wins, 6.4 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives UNLV a slight edge over the Aggies, with 50.3% to claim the win. The Aggies are afforded 49.7% chance.

Without Jayden Maiava at quarterback, UNLV doesn’t have the same oomph it did a year ago. But with Barry Odom as the head coach, the Rebels are sure to remain competitive, even in something of a rebuilding year.

That UNLV comes to Logan favors the Aggies, but it is early enough in the season that the weather won’t make a real difference for the Aggies.

Last season, UNLV would have handled Utah State. This year, it doesn’t appear to be as cut and dried.

This is the second in what appear to be plenty of toss-up games in MW play for Utah State, given the information that is known right now about teams.

If USU is to have a special year, it will need to win the toss-up games. The majority, if not all of them.

If it is going to be more of a normal year for USU, then the Aggies will drop one or two close games that they shouldn’t.

And if it is a rebuilding year for the Aggies, they’ll lose the majority of games that they are competitively in.

Prediction: UNLV 28, Utah State 24. The Aggies lay something of an egg, letting the Rebels come into Maverik Stadium and leave with a close win.

7. San Diego State, Nov. 23

• ESPN FPI prediction for San Diego State — 6.6 wins, 5.6 losses.
• ESPN Analytics favors SDSU, giving the Aztecs a 52.7% to win, with USU standing at 47.3%.

With Sean Lewis as the new head coach, the Aztecs are poised to surge back up the MW standings. Maybe not this season, though.

Lewis was highly successful at Kent State as head coach — his team defeated the Jordan Love-led Aggies in 2019 in the Frisco Bowl — and his offense at Colorado was electric, at least until the Buffaloes faced a real defense.

There are a lot of expectations that Lewis will be able to turn around SDSU quickly, but the Aztecs were one of the worst teams in the MW last year. That isn’t hyperbole. The Aztecs fell fast and hard in the final year of the Brady Hoke era. And the team’s offense was simply putrid.

A trip to Logan in late November doesn’t bode well for the Aztecs, especially not with the Aggies boasting an effective and explosive rushing attack.

Of course, will USU’s defense have developed enough to stop what should be an improving SDSU?

Prediction: Utah State 35, San Diego State 31. The Aggies are able to do just enough on offense to take down the Aztecs, with a game-winning drive at the end of the fourth quarter deciding things.

8. At Colorado State, Nov. 29

• ESPN FPI prediction for Colorado State — 5.3 wins, 6.8 losses.
• ESPN Analytics believe the Rams will get the better of the Aggies, with 53.7% chance to win compared to 46.3% for USU.

Jay Norvell is slowly building something in Fort Collins and, given another year or two, the Rams might — key word being might — have ascended to the top of the MW. The potential is there for CSU.

The Rams should probably exceed expectations in 2024 as it is, with the return of starting quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. A year older and wiser, he appears primed for a breakout season.

Colorado State was good at home in 2023 and dismal on the road, making the game in Fort Collins all the better for CSU and worse for Utah State.

When Norvell’s teams have been at their best, they have been dynamic on offense, and a late season showdown could limit both CSU and USU’s offense.

Throw in the fact that something crazy always seems to happen when the Rams and Aggies meet up and this game is probably one to watch. Especially since one or both teams could still be in the hunt in the MW.

Prediction: Colorado State 24, Utah State 23. Things gets crazy when Utah State plays Colorado State and this time around, the crazy favors the Rams.

9. Hawaii, Nov. 16

• ESPN FPI prediction for Hawaii — 5.6 wins, 6.4 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives Utah State a 74.4% chance to win, Hawaii given a 25.6% chance.

The Warriors are definitely trending in the right direction under Timmy Chang. In a Week 0 matchup against Delaware, Hawaii was lively, and that was with an up-and-down showing from quarterback Brayden Schager.

Will Hawaii have one of the best offenses in the MW by the time it travels to Utah State? Probably not, but it won’t be a surprise if the Warriors’ offense has become one of the more dangerous in the league.

Hawaii is probably still a year or two away from actual contention in the MW, but the Warriors will hand a team or two a damaging loss.

This is the type of game Utah State has proven susceptible to in past years.

Prediction: Utah State 55, Hawaii 48. In another thriller, the Aggies come up with just enough offense to stay off the Warriors for a key conference win.

10. New Mexico, Oct. 19

• ESPN FPI prediction for New Mexico — 4.2 wins, 7.9 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives Utah State a 67.6% chance to win, with New Mexico coming in with a 32.4% chance to win.

Some may have expected Bronco Mendenhall to make a quick impact at New Mexico, the kind of turnaround that leads to an immediate bowl game. Based on the Lobos’ performance in Week 0 against Montana State, however, it is going to be a long-term rebuild for the Lobos.

The Lobos were underdogs entering the game — Montana State is a great FCS program — but they could have walked away with the win if not for a second half collapse.

New Mexico is one of the more difficult places to win in all of FBS. The job is hard, and consistently good teams hard to come by.

That the Lobos have to travel to Logan, and Utah State will likely need a win to put some shine on a slow start to the year, doesn’t bode well for the Lobos to trouble the Aggies.

Prediction: Utah State 38, New Mexico 21. An easy win for the Aggies, who run away from the Lobos early and then cruise to victory.

11. At Temple, Sep. 21

• ESPN FPI prediction - 3.0 wins, 9.0 losses.
• ESPN Analytics gives USU a 65.3% chance to win on the road against Temple, while the Owls have a 34.7% chance to pick up a big nonconference win.

Temple is no longer the team that once contended for championships in the American Athletic Conference. In fact, the Owls have fallen so far as to be projected to be the worst team in that league, by far.

Utah State will have to travel cross country but the Aggies have done that before and recently, defeating UConn on the road last season.

This is the kind of game that Utah State must win if it wants to make a run at bowl eligibility.

Prediction: Utah State 34, Temple 17. The Aggies start slow, but they wear down the Owls, and in the second half, things are all USU.

12. Robert Morris, Aug. 31

• ESPN Analytics gives USU a 98% chance to win.

Little needs to be said about this game. Robert Morris isn’t a top-tier FCS program. In fact, it is a middle-of-the-pack team in the Northeastern Conference.

Utah State should handle Robert Morris, without having to show too much either ahead of the trip to USC.

Utah State has proven vulnerable to FCS opponents before — Weber State in 2022 — but Robert Morris isn’t that Weber State team and this isn’t the same USU team.

Prediction: Utah State 45, Robert Morris 14. An easy win for the Aggies to start the season.

Final win-loss prediction for Utah State in 2024

7-5 overall, 4-3 in MW play.