Tropical Storm Francine is expected to reach hurricane status at landfall

Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to reach hurricane status Tuesday as it moves through the western Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday, bringing significant impacts to the U.S Gulf Coast and southern regions, according to reports.

Each May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its Atlantic hurricane season outlook for the predicted number of tropical storms and hurricanes we can expect during the forecast season. For the 2024 summer and fall months, “NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season , with 17-25 named storms (average is 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3),” per NOAA Climate.

Hence, we’ve seen an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with a 90% probability rate, meaning 2024 only has a 10% chance of a “normal” hurricane season, according to the NOAA.

Intensity potential increases need for evacuations

The National Hurricane Center announced a Category 2 hurricane in Louisiana on Wednesday night. As Fox Weather reported , mandatory evacuations have been ordered in multiple parishes across the state.

According to the National Weather Service, a Category 2 hurricane carries surging winds of 96-110 mph. It is expected that “Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding for far northeast Mexico into the far southern coast of Texas today and across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday,” per NHC .

While the strength of a storm is often measured by its wind speed, it is the water — through storm surge , heavy rainfall, and flooding — that typically causes the most damage and poses the greatest threat to life. In the case of Tropical Storm Francine, the same principle applies: despite its wind strength, the risk of severe flooding and water-related hazards is a significant concern.

CNN reported that Francine will force ocean water onto land, causing a storm surge. This will affect normally dry areas along the western Gulf Coast. Watches and warnings are in effect from northeastern Texas to the Mississippi-Alabama line. The storm surge threat is the main reason behind mandatory evacuation orders in Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast.

As Francine approaches landfall, specifically along central Louisiana, water levels could rise up to 10 feet above normal, leading to the potential dangerous threat of widespread flooding.

According to The Weather Channel , Tropical Storm Francine is currently about 400 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana. At 7 a.m., it was moving slowly northwest with winds of 65 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen to a Category 2 at landfall.

Preparing for Francine

Louisiana’s governor released a statewide emergency announcement ahead of Francine’s arrival.

“‘Now is the time for Louisianans to prepare for impacts from Tropical Storm Francine, which is expected to become a hurricane … so get your game plan in place, monitor the news, and take advice from local officials,’ said Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, issuing a state of emergency that allows parishes statewide to have the resources needed to help protect the lives of residents,” per Fox Weather .

Mandatory evacuations were issued on Monday and expand along Louisiana’s coast.

WHDH reported that evacuations were ordered in parts of Lafourche Parish on Tuesday, while mandatory evacuations were issued for Zone 1 in Terrebonne Parish, according to the parish government.

Terrebonne and St. Mary started to close off floodgates and administer sandbags on Monday.

All of Cameron Parish is under mandatory evacuation orders, per an official’s social post .

“Both mandatory and voluntary evacuations were ordered farther east in Jefferson Parish’s town of Grand Isle , which was decimated by the Category 4 storm Ida in 2021,” per 7 News

Several schools are closed across Louisiana parishes on Wednesday and Thursday.