College Football 25 simulation: No Rising, no problem for Utah against Utah State?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah and Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.

It’s been a long time — back in 2015 — since Utah and Utah State last met on the football field.

Who will win in what is expected to be a battle of quarterbacks who started the year as the backup?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game — and it went about as expected.

How the simulation was set up

There were a couple ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters — I adjusted it down from 12 minutes last week, with the option to adjust that if necessary in future simulations — and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented, and this week it especially impacted the quarterback rooms for both schools.

With Cam Rising injuring his hand in Utah’s win over Baylor last week, it looks like true freshman Isaac Wilson will get his first college start.

For Utah State, I pegged Bryson Barnes getting the start for the Aggies for the second straight week in place of an injured Spencer Petras.

I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?

The actual score: Utah 23, Baylor 12

College Football 25 simulation final score: Utah 20, Baylor 17

My analysis: The actual game and the simulation actually played out in similar ways — the Utes took an early lead, then held off the Bears in the second half.

The video game matchup was a bit closer, though, as Baylor’s offense was misfiring most of the day against Utah in real life.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?

The actual score: USC 48, Utah State 0

College Football 25 simulation final score: USC 45, Utah State 23

My analysis: The computer had it right that USC would blow out the Aggies.

The actual game was even more lopsided, though, as the Utah State offense showed up better in the video game version over the real-life game.

How did the simulation between Utah and Utah State play out?

Final score: Utah 40, Utah State 17

Key sequence: Moments after Utah built a 14-3 lead with a few minutes left in the second quarter, Barnes had Utah State driving with the possibility to make it a one-score game again.

The Utes, though, forced an incompletion on third-and-2 at the Utah 34, then stuffed a Utah State run for no gain when the Aggies went for it on fourth down.

Wilson then successfully executed a one-minute offense, capping a five-play, 66-yard drive — all passes — with a 5-yard touchdown pass to Mycah Pittman with 24 seconds left in the half to make it 21-3 Utes.

How the simulation transpired: There were a lot of long drives for the Utes, with running back Micah Bernard motoring the offense and Wilson showing poise in his first start.

The Utes, meanwhile, finished with six sacks on Barnes — including a key one to start the second half (more on that in a minute).

Both teams were slow to get going offensively before Utah put together a 78-yard drive that ended with a Bernard 2-yard touchdown run with under a minute in the first quarter.

Utah State responded with a long drive of its own, though it ended with a 40-yard Elliott Nimrod field goal.

The Utes capitalized on the chance to build a double-digit lead, marching downfield for another touchdown, this time a Bernard 12-yard run.

A Money Parks 27-yard catch on third-and-3 early in the drive built up momentum, and Bernard later converted a third-and-3 inside the Utah State 25.

Bernard had 81 rushing yards at halftime as Utah led by 18.

The Utes didn’t give the Aggies a chance to take the opening possession of the second half for a score, as defensive end Connor O’Toole had back-to-back sacks. The second one was a safety, after his first one — a 10-yarder — pushed the line of scrimmage back to the USU 7.

That safety set the tone for the next quarter, and Pittman caught another short touchdown and Utah added a 48-yard field goal before Barnes led a couple late touchdown drives, where he hit Utah State tight end Broc Lane for a pair of touchdown passes.

Zemaiah Vaughn added a 41-yard pick-six in between the two Lane touchdowns to account for Utah’s final points.

Star players: O’Toole had a monster game, finishing with seven tackles, six tackles for loss and five sacks.

Bernard ran for 133 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 4.4 yards per carry, while Parks had a team-high six receptions for 100 yards.

Wilson threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns in an efficient outing.

Barnes, on the other side, threw for 308 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for Utah State.

Rahsul Faison added 61 rushing yards and 55 receiving, while Lane added four catches for 61 yards.

Key stats: The Utes outgained the Aggies 367 to 321, though almost half of Utah State’s yards came on their two late touchdowns after Utah had already built a 33-3 lead.

Utah went 8 of 12 on third down, while Utah State was 3 of 10.

The Utes also held Utah State to 13 rushing yards, while Utah had 138 itself.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: This seems totally plausible.

The ranked Utes were never in danger, and while Utah State hung around for awhile, Utah was able to pull away in the second half.

Wilson, who’s just three games into his first season, also had some impressive throws and an overall strong game, mixed in with some inefficiency — what you’d expect and be grateful for in your first road game as a collegian.