College Football 25 simulation: Will Utah exact some revenge on Arizona?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah game against an FBS opponent this season.

Utah is riding high after going into Stillwater, Oklahoma, last week and beating Oklahoma State on the road.

The Utes, mind you, did it without a handful of injured starters and still led by 19 midway through the fourth quarter.

Up next is a matchup against Arizona on Saturday, with a chance for the Utes to get some payback after losing to the Wildcats 42-18 last season.

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and it provided some fireworks.

How the simulation was set up

There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. That helped to create more realistic numbers.

Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.

With Cam Rising considered a game-time decision again this week, I went ahead and subbed in Isaac Wilson for his third straight start — different from last week, when I had Rising in at quarterback, but he ultimately didn’t play.

Also, Karene Reid and Connor O’Toole were moved out of the lineup as they continue to nurse injuries.

One Arizona running back, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, was also kept out of the simulation — he is still waiting on the NCAA to make a determination on his eligibility status.

Utah’s new Dark Mode throwback jerseys weren’t available on the video game, so I used the Utes’ alternate black uniforms, with black from head to toe. Arizona is wearing all white on jerseys, helmets and pants.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah’s last game?

The actual score: Utah 22, Oklahoma State 19

College Football 25 simulation final score: Oklahoma State 12, Utah 6

My analysis: I ended up believing Rising would play, though that wasn’t the case. Instead, Wilson played in the actual game and helped lead Utah to the victory in its Big 12 opener.

The simulation was more reserved about the offenses for both teams, which did prove true for a while in the actual game. In the end, though, the simulation failed to give an accurate portrayal of how Utah’s offense — particularly guys like Micah Bernard and Dorian Singer — impacted the game.

How did the simulation between Utah and Arizona play out?

Final score: Utah 31, Arizona 17

Key sequence: With the game tied at 17-17 in the fourth quarter, Mycah Pittman made the biggest play of his Utah career.

The Utes had just forced a punt after knotting the score early in the quarter, and on the punt, Pittman found a lane, then cut from right to left across the field on his way to a 65-yard return for a touchdown.

That gave Utah a 24-17 lead with 6:42 to play and the Utes later added a game-sealing touchdown.

How the simulation transpired: After a slow start — there were five combined punts to begin the game — Utah controlled the second quarter and Arizona bounced back in the third before Utah put the contest away in the fourth.

The Wildcats got on the board first, turning a Wilson turnover into points. Utah finally moved into the red zone, before Arizona’s Treydan Stukes intercepted Wilson at the Arizona 11 and returned it to the Utah 39.

The Utes defense locked down, though, and didn’t allow a first down, though the Wildcats’ Tyler Loop hit a 55-yard field goal to make it 3-0 late in the first quarter.

Utah’s first points were delivered by the defense — on the Wildcats’ next offensive possession, Zemaiah Vaughn intercepted a pass intended for Tetairoa McMillan and returned it 46 yards for the pick-six in the first minute of the second quarter.

Both defenses dictated the pace over the next several minutes, before Utah again produced a long drive. Again, though, Wilson was intercepted inside the Wildcats red zone, thwarting a scoring opportunity.

The Utes, though, forced a punt and got the ball back with 18 seconds until halftime. From there, Wilson completed passes to Brant Kuithe and Munir McClain to get Utah to the Arizona 42. Then Cole Becker drilled a 59-yard field goal as the half ended to make it 10-3.

Utah’s first possession of the second half stalled at midfield, then Arizona went on their most promising drive of the day, marching 88 yards to tie the game. A 32-yard pass to Malachi Riley on third down extended the drive, and Arizona used a blend of passes and runs before scoring on a Quali Conley 1-yard run.

Moments later, things looked uneasy for Utah after Wilson threw his third pick — Dalton Johnson intercepted him at the Utah 45 and returned it to the Utes’ 2-yard line. That set up another short Conley touchdown run and a 17-10 Wildcats lead.

That momentary lapse got the Utah offense to wake up, though. The Utes marched downfield and Wilson found Kuithe for a 26-yard catch and run touchdown that capped a seven-play, 90-yard touchdown drive.

With just under nine minutes left, it was 17-17.

That set up Pittman’s game-changing punt return for a touchdown, which again shifted the momentum.

The Wildcats couldn’t get much going after that and were stopped on a fourth and 1 on their own 40-yard line, giving Utah offense the chance to wrap up the victory.

The Utes delivered — Bernard picked up 14 yards on a third-and-8 play, then he scored on a 1-yard run with 1:53 to play on a clock-killing nine-play drive to make it 31-17.

Nate Ritchie then ended Arizona’s final drive, intercepting a Noah Fifita pass that had been tipped.

Star players: Vaughn came up big defensively, finishing with five tackles and the pick-six, while Tao Johnson added seven tackles and a tackle for loss. Logan Fano had four tackles and 1.5 sacks.

Bernard paced the Utah offense, running for 129 yards and a touchdown.

Wilson threw for 162 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, finding Kuithe six times for 45 times and the score. Singer also had five catches for 56 yards.

The Utes held Fifita to 214 yards passing and intercepted him twice. The star wide receiver McMillan had six catches for 124 yards, though he never scored.

Key stats: The Utes outgained the Wildcats in total yards, 316 to 231.

Utah sacked Fifita six times and only allowed Arizona to convert 4 of 16 third downs.

The Utes also stopped a pair of fourth-down attempts, helping to offset losing the turnover battle three to two.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: While you’d hope Wilson doesn’t have a tough three-turnover day like this, a two-touchdown victory for Utah seems like a good result.

There were a lot of chunk plays and big scores for Utah — the pick-six and the punt return for a score, in particular. You’d hope for the Utes to show a bit more consistency on offense in the actual game, mixed with some big moments in clutch situations.