The drought in the West and what’s next for the weather

A briefing Tuesday detailed how this last water year for Utah was good in terms of precipitation or snowpack, as August brought record monsoonal moisture in some areas, and while the fire season has been active in Utah this year, there’s been a lack of huge fires in the state.

All of these factors are good signs as Utah prepares to navigate another water year that began Oct. 1, and the hope is the last two years will do a repeat in the coming months.

The “Intermountain West Drought and Climate Outlook,” was virtually hosted by a number of entities including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the national drought network or the National Integrated Drought Information System and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

It is that entity that provides water supply outlooks throughout the water year, including data on snowpack, soil moisture content, how each basin is doing and the status of reservoir levels.

In this briefing, Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist and with the atmospheric science department at Colorado State University, said conditions have changed from a year ago at this time.

For the Intermountain West, 31% of the land mass was listed in the moderate drought category 12 months ago, while 17% was classified as in severe drought.

As of Oct. 1 this year, 37% is in the moderate drought classification, with much of the impact coming from regions in eastern Wyoming, Overall, 74% of the West is abnormally dry.

Much of Utah is abnormally dry.

Goble said the percentages are driven in part by warmer than normal water and record warm temperatures dogging wide swaths of land.

As a comparison, Utah hovered around 130% to 140% of normal as of April 1 this year, the end of the water accumulation year. In eastern Wyoming two of its basins were below 45%, Goble said.

In 2024, the inflow into Lake Powell was 84% of normal — a good thing — but presenters noted it will take many, many years of above average snowpack or drastic cuts to water consumption to get the lake out of its lousy condition.

Like other agencies, these groups are in a wait -and see mode to map out the fall and winhat it brings, again, emphasizing they’d like to keep up the trend of plentiful snowpack.

Jon Meyer, with the Utah Climate Center at Utah State University, said water watchers keep a keen eye on the summer monsoon season.

“It’s rather critical,” Meyer said, adding it is an important tool at “mitigating drought.”

The season started out slow, but then changed.

“Moving into August, we really flipped a switch. We went from a fairly depressing start to the monsoon season to all all of a sudden, feeling pretty flush for many areas of the Intermountain West when it came to ongoing, persistent precipitation.”

Like other agencies, these groups are in a wait-and-see mode to map out the fall and winter and see what it brings, again, emphasizing they’d like to keep up the trend of plentiful snowpack.