Utah growth trend continues; state expected to surpass 4M mark by 2033

Utah’s growth is expected to continue in the years to come, though, at a slightly lower rate than in recent years, expanding by more than 500,000 and is expected to surpass 4 million by 2033.

Growth rates are "moderating, and they have been for quite a while," said Mallory Bateman, director of demographic research for the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. According to new numbers released this week, Utah's estimated population of 3.51 million for 2024 is expected to reach 4.03 million by 2033, an annual growth rate of around 1.5%.

The 1.5% figure trails annual population growth rates in Utah of around 1.7% between 2020 and 2023, and the lower expected growth rate, Bateman said, stems partly from the state's larger population base. As Utah's numbers rise, it takes more people to maintain the same growth rate. She also cited lower expected birth rates, a national trend.

Despite it all, the state is expected to expand even as the populations of other U.S. states contract, and the new report cited "Utah's robust economy" as the key driver. This week's report comes two years since the release by the Gardner Policy Institute in early 2022 of 40-year population estimates covering the 2020-2060 period and the last 10-year report, released in 2019.

"Utah's economy is projected to add 330,000 jobs by 2033, a 13.4% increase from an estimated 2.47 million jobs in 2024," reads the report. New jobs draw people to Utah, and the resulting net migration, "historically a smaller share of growth, is projected to be a consistent driver of Utah's population growth," it went on.

Among the key economic spurs in the coming years will be the 2034 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. "Significant economic activity for the Games begins in 2028," reads the report.

The report also cites the arrival of a National Hockey League team in Utah, the "associated construction activity" and a planned sales tax hike of 0.5% meant to help with upgrades in downtown Salt Lake City.

Looking at a more micro level, Utah County is projected to get the single largest bloc of new residents among the state's 29 counties through 2033, 164,247, which would boost its population to 911,167. Next is Salt Lake County, up nearly 125,000 to 1.36 million; Washington County, up nearly 63,000 to 268,790; Davis County, up 43,000 to 423,820; and Weber County, up more than 27,000 to 299,397.

According to the report, the number of households in Utah is expected to grow by around 2.4% per year between 2024 and 2033, from 1.2 million to more than 1.4 million. Median age is expected to increase from 32.7 to 35.2, reflecting “an increasing adult population and a declining youth population,” according to a statement accompanying the release of the report.