College Football 25 simulation: Can Utah State hang with UNLV?

Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, the Deseret News is simulating every Utah State game against an FBS opponent this season.

Utah State finds itself in desperate need of a win — or at least some momentum — as the Aggies host UNLV on Friday.

The Aggies have lost four straight games and are facing a Rebels team that is 4-1 and was ranked in the top 25 before losing in overtime to Syracuse last week.

Which team will get the much-needed victory Friday night in Logan?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game on the EA Sports College Football 25 video game, and while Utah State hung around for some time, the visiting Rebels eventually took control.

How the simulation was set up

There were a couple of ground rules in place: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game with no user interference.

CPU ratings have also been adjusted a bit from the standard to make pass defense more realistic — in my opinion, passers were completing an unrealistic amount of attempts in previous simulations, so I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35, then adjusted pass defense ratings from 50 to 75. That helped to create more realistic numbers.

Injuries and depth chart changes were also implemented.

For Utah State, there are several players on the defensive line that are banged up and thinned out the depth there. Defensive tackles Miguel Jackson and Taz Williams, as well as defensive ends Enoka Migao, Blaine Spires and Gabe Peterson were all moved off the depth chart due to injury and didn’t play.

For UNLV, the Rebels had quarterback Matthew Sluka to start the year, but a couple weeks ago, he chose to redshirt the remainder of 2024 over a reported NIL issue. His replacement, Hajj-Malik Williams, isn’t in the CFB 25 game, but since Sluka and Williams have similar stats and dual-threat abilities in real life this year, I kept Sluka as QB and am just inserting Williams’ name in his place for the game summary.

I also matched up the uniform combos we’ll see in the game the best I could.

UNLV is going with white jerseys and gray helmets and pants, while Utah State is wearing blue jerseys with white helmets and pants. The Aggies are wearing a white version of their throwback helmets in the actual contest, which isn’t available in the game, so I used their traditional white helmet.

How accurate was the simulation of Utah State’s last game?

The actual score: Boise State 62, Utah State 30

College Football 25 simulation final score: Boise State 24, Utah State 6

My analysis: The simulation accurately predicted that Boise State would win handily, though the simulation wasn’t nearly as offense-friendly as the actual game.

In the real contest, the Aggies fell behind 49-17 at halftime and never seriously challenged the Broncos.

How did the simulation between Utah State and UNLV play out?

Final score: UNLV 38, Utah State 21

Key sequence: The Aggies managed to keep it a 14-14 ball game into the third quarter, but a costly fumble ended up giving the Rebels the lead for good.

With Utah State facing a third and long inside its 25, the Rebels’ Johnathan Baldwin strip-sacked Spencer Petras around the Aggies 12 and UNLV’s Kodi DeCambra fell on the ball at the Utah State 2-yard line.

One play later, Jai’Den Thomas scored on a 2-yard touchdown run to make it 21-14 Rebels.

How the simulation transpired : While Utah State struggled to get UNLV’s offense off the field, the Rebels made a handful of mistakes early that helped keep the Aggies around into the second half.

The Aggies struck first, using a balanced mix of run and pass to score on the game’s opening possession when Kyrese White caught a 21-yard touchdown pass.

The Rebels responded with a touchdown drive of their own. Like Utah State, UNLV marched on a long, time-consuming drive before scoring on a 6-yard Michael Allen run to make it 7-7 late in the first quarter.

UNLV had a chance to take the lead for the first time as the quarter ended, but a short field goal missed wide right.

Utah State took advantage of that miscue, driving 80 yards for a touchdown and a 14-7 lead. The drive included a 17-yard pass to Jalen Royals to get Utah State to the UNLV 31, and two plays later, Rahsul Faison caught a 29-yard pass for a touchdown.

The Rebels, who squandered a few scoring opportunities and missed four field goals, eventually capitalized on their efforts to move the ball when Corey Thompson Jr. caught a leaping 34-yard touchdown grab.

That led up to the aforementioned game-swinging moment when Utah State fumbled deep in its own territory and UNLV scored on a short TD run to make it a 21-14 game.

Ike Larsen briefly gave Utah State some hope early in the fourth quarter when he intercepted a pass in the end zone, but after the Aggies couldn’t move the ball and were forced to punt, the Rebels finally made it a two-score game with a 1-yard Thomas touchdown run.

A handful of Utah State penalties then helped UNLV add another touchdown — this one on a 12-yard Jacob De Jesus reception — to take a commanding 35-14 lead with six minutes to play.

Utah State finally countered with a quick, four-play scoring drive that ended with a Faison 2-yard touchdown run.

The Rebels, though, took several minutes off the clock on their next drive and scored on a 34-yard field goal with under two minutes to play to put the game away.

Star players: Faison was the Aggies’ offensive star, finishing with 81 rushing yards and a touchdown to go with one catch for 29 yards and a score.

Petras threw for 277 yards, two touchdowns and an interception for the Aggies, while Royals had four catches for 50 yards and White finished with five receptions for 34 yards and a touchdown.

Williams threw for 305 yards, two touchdowns and one interception for the Rebels — De Jesus was his top pass catcher with 10 receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown, while Ricky White III added four catches for 90 yards.

Key stats: Both teams were able to move the ball relatively well, with UNLV putting up 410 yards of total offense compared to 337 for the Aggies.

The Rebels were a bit better on third down — going 7 of 16 compared to the Aggies’ 6 of 17 — and forced two Utah State turnovers, while the Aggies forced one.

UNLV also sacked Petras five times, with four of those coming in the second half once the Aggies fell behind.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: I could see the game playing out like this, other than it felt at times like UNLV was a bit more mistake-prone than you would expect from a team that just a week ago was being mentioned as a potential contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff as a conference champion.

The Aggies’ defense couldn’t do enough to get itself off the field in key situations, and the Rebels made them pay eventually.

Utah State gave itself a shot, but couldn’t put together enough sustained drives after a strong start.