Series: Utah State has won seven consecutive games against New Mexico, six of those by double digits. All-time, USU holds a 17-13 edge on New Mexico, with a 9-2 advantage over the Lobos since the teams became Mountain West Conference foes.
Weather: Clear, sunny skies with temperatures in the mid-50s at kickoff.
The trends
For Utah State: The Aggies are 1-5 overall and 0-2 in MWC play. USU has lost five straight since winning its opener at home against Robert Morris, though the quality of opponents the Aggies have faced is notable — USC, Utah, Temple, Boise State and UNLV. Utah State has shown flashes of solid play this season, including in the second half of last weekend’s loss to the Rebels, but the Aggies have yet to come close to putting together a complete game.
For New Mexico: The Lobos are 2-4 overall, 1-1 in MWC play. New Mexico started the season — its first under Bronco Mendenhall — 0-4 with losses to Montana State, Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State. Since then, the Lobos have reeled off back-to-back wins over rival New Mexico State and MW foe Air Force. In both of those wins, NM scored 50-plus points, riding an explosive offense to victory.
What to watch for
Offense, offense and more offense.
Entering Saturday’s game, Utah State and New Mexico boast two of the four most prolific and explosive offenses in the Mountain West this season.
The Lobos have done most of their damage on the ground, either with running back or in the quarterback run game, while the Aggies have been much more balanced in their approach with regular 300-yard passing games from the quarterback position and consistent 100-yard rushing games from running back Rahsul Faison.
Either way, both offenses put up a lot of yards and points and in a hurry, too.
The defenses for both teams, on the other hand, struggle. A lot. It depends on what statistic is looked at, but New Mexico and Utah State alternate between being the worst- or second-worst defense in the MW in every category.
All of which sets the stage for a high-scoring shootout in Logan.
Shootouts, while highly entertaining, usually come down to mistakes. Whichever team makes the fewest offensively should walk away victorious.
Defense could play a small role, if one defense is able to force turnovers better than the other.
Special teams could also be a difference maker.
But if you like offensive football, USU versus New Mexico is the game to watch. There should be lots of it, in all varieties.
Key player
Spencer Petras | Tyler Tate
Spencer Petras, Utah State quarterback: The reality of Utah State and New Mexico is that neither team is capable — or at least has proven capable this season — of playing good or even adequate defense. Which means a shootout between two explosive offenses is the likely outcome of Saturday’s game.
For Utah State, that means putting the game in the hands of quarterback Spencer Petras, which has been a hit-and-miss proposition thus far in his Aggie tenure.
When at his best, Petras has been an effective and efficient passer, spraying the ball across the field to many different Aggies. Against UNLV, he threw for over 450 yards and completed more than 40 passes. He also threw multiple touchdown passes.
The issue was that he also turned the ball over four times, via a fumble and three interceptions.
If Utah State is to have a chance to outscore New Mexico, it needs Petras to be turnover-free. He has proven capable of running the Aggies’ offense this season, but turnovers and mistakes at the worst times have slowed USU’s offense. Arguably those mistakes are the main thing that has slowed the Aggies down when Petras has been under center.
If Utah State gets the best version of Petras against the Lobos, it should win the game. If the Aggies get the mistake-prone version, even for a portion of the game, they probably lose.
Quotable
“They have been very successful with (Devon Dampier) and I think when you look at their schedule, it has been very similar to ours. They’ve played some really good teams and have kind of gotten on a roll the last couple of games against easier opponents. They are way better than their record. We know that. And their offense has been rolling. We have to be able to get some stops and force some turnovers to get our offense on the field and get some points.” — Utah State coach Nate Dreiling
“They are explosive. Utah State has a great scheme, capable players. They score a lot of points and are capable of scoring a lot of points. Yardage accumulation, you can see what those are. They are very impressive.” — New Mexico coach Bronco Mendenhall
Next up
Utah State: at Wyoming
New Mexico: at Colorado State
Utah State schedule
Aug. 31: Utah State 36, Robert Morris 14
Sept. 7: USC 48, Utah State 0
Sept. 14: Utah 38, Utah State 21
Sept. 21: Temple 45, Utah State 29
Sept. 28: Bye
Oct. 5: Boise State 62, Utah State 30
Oct. 11: UNLV 50, Utah State 34
Oct. 19: New Mexico (2 p.m., TruTV)
Oct. 26: at Wyoming (5 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
Nov. 2: Bye
Nov. 9: at Washington State (TBA)
Nov. 16: Hawaii (1 p.m., Spectrum Sports)
Nov. 23: San Diego State (1:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network)
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