Spencer Torkelson had a pretty sound alibi at this point last season. Despite stats that said otherwise, Torkelson was making a ton of hard contact at the plate. The numbers eventually reflected it. This year, the numbers confirm exactly what we're watching: a hitter who's apparently lost his way.
"It’s definitely fixable," A.J. Hinch said Wednesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "This guy’s still really young and learning his way. He didn’t hit 30 homers last year by accident. The talent is in there. The consistency has been tough this month and he’s paying the consequence of it with less performance than what he's capable of. We’ve stayed really patient with him and we’re going to continue to stay patient with him, but there’s no doubt that he needs to be better for us to be the best team (we can be)."
The way Torkelson closed last season fueled hopes of a banner year in 2024. 40 homers felt legitimately within reach : "If he goes the way he did late in the season, anything’s possible," new GM Jeff Greenberg said ahead of spring training. "The adjustments he made and what we saw down the stretch was really exciting. Looking for him to a be a huge driver of our offense." Torkelson had 26 homers -- and an .818 OPS -- in his final 100 games last season. More than a month into this one, the former No. 1 pick is stuck on zero.
Out of 180 qualified hitters, Torkelson ranks 152nd in OPS (.588) and 166th in fWAR (-0.4), which factors in his sub-par defense, and most worrisome of all, 179th in live-drive rate. The batted ball data is so distressing largely because it was so encouraging last season. It offered hope, like the light on the horizon. Right now, things look bleak.
Torkelson ranked 17th in the majors last season in hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He ranks 188th this season. He was tied for seventh in barrels -- the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle -- trailing only Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna. He's tied for 218th this season. He barreled a ball in 9.1 percent of his plate appearances, same as Mike Trout. He's barreled a ball in 1.6 percent of his plate appearances this season, same as Andres Gimenez. You get it.
"I think some of it is timing, some of it is, he gets caught in between quite a bit, and that’s a very natural mistake for a hitter who’s trying to do a little bit too much and cover everything," said Hinch. "He's late on fastballs where it’s either swing and miss or a pop-up, or early on breaking balls where he has to commit without seeing the pitch. In some ways I think Tork could sell out either way and have a plan to attack something, as opposed to try to cover everything."
Torkelson got on the fastball last season. He slugged .497 against it, with an expected slugging percentage (based on quality of contact) of .570. He's slugging .273 against it this year, with an expected mark of .309. Great hitters tend to make things look easy, as we're beginning to see with Riley Greene. Torkelson currently looks lost. Is it time to send him down to Triple-A, for a confidence boost if nothing else?
"I’m not sure that coming into the manager’s office and getting sent down builds confidence," said Hinch. "I think that’s actually quite the blow to a player. We’ve done that before with him a couple years ago."
The Tigers are committed to letting their young hitters find themselves in the big leagues. They are sticking to the plan that Scott Harris laid out in the offseason, for better or worse. Torkelson, 24, is hardly alone in his early-season struggles. 22-year-old Colt Keith and 24-year-old Parker Meadows have been even worse. By almost any measure, including wRC+, wOBA and OPS, Keith has been the single worst hitter in the majors. Meadows isn't far behind him. Despite this, the Tigers are 17-13 entering May.
When it comes to Torkelson, "mechanically, I think we need to make some adjustments," said Hinch. "And in the approach I think we need to make some adjustments, and then the numbers will come."
"It’s going to take him a while to get the numbers back, so we’re going to watch the process and see how those adjustments come. Like I said, we’re all very open about him needing to pick up his production for us to be our best team. Nobody knows that more than Tork. There are no threats (about being sent down). We have not even talked about that, Scott, Greeny and I, other than we’re pretty open about needing him to be a center part of our offense," said Hinch.
A year ago, there was reason to believe that Torkelson would break through. He eventually did, and this year he still might. But right now, a month into his third MLB season, his pedigree and a power surge last summer are the only pieces of hope. Those lights aren't on the horizon.
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