Caputo: Goff extension has risk

Jared Goff isn’t complicated. You don’t need to be a quarterback savant to figure him out.

If you give Goff time, he will slice through a defense with remarkable efficiency. But if he is rushed a bit, he tends to become a turnover machine. While it is like that for all NFL QB's to varying degrees, the discrepancy is bigger for Goff.

The Lions have an outstanding offensive line, a strong running game and an offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, whose scheme plays to Goff’s on-time-and-target strengths.

The best part of the Lions signing Goff to a four-year extension is they know exactly what they are getting. Goff is a Top 10 NFL quarterback in the right situation, and the Lions will likely present that to him the next few seasons.

Quarterback is the NFL’s ultimate knot-in-the-stomach. There is plenty of logic to knowing what you’ve got instead of entering the land of uncertainty. So it does make sense for the Lions to give Goff this contract.

But it’s unwise to confuse that aspect of Goff’s extension with the risk involved. It’s considerable, and it’s possible that the Lions will ultimately regret not waiting until after this season to do it.

Goff’s career has not been a straight line of consistency. He had a couple excellent seasons with the Rams, but then faltered. He has essentially had a strong season-and-a-half with the Lions.

At 29, there remains a possibility Goff still hasn’t played his best football. Yet, NFL history is full of quarterbacks who had a couple hot years, but weren’t able to sustain it.

Truth is, we don’t know for sure which category Goff falls in. But we likely will after this upcoming season.

There are ways to maneuver the salary cap so that Goff isn’t hogging too large a percentage. Goff must stay healthy to make this work. Also, the Lions did this without fully knowing what backup Hendon Hooker brings to the table.

Goff led the Lions to within a half of the Super Bowl last season. Obviously, the organization is justifiably grateful.

But the NFL’s salary cap structure harshly punishes teams who misread the future of a high-priced player based on his past. While Goff’s extension is a classic “better safe than sorry” move, it really only guarantees he is much richer.

It was more calculated than a gamble, though, and understandable from the Lions’ standpoint.