Jeff Greenberg's first season as general manager of the Tigers looks a lot like Scott Harris' first season as president of baseball operations, which looked a lot like all the losing seasons that preceded it. The Tigers have the most losses in the majors since they opted to slash and burn the organization in 2017. The soil still feels barren in Detroit.
Speaking Monday at the Detroit Economic Club before the Tigers' 8-1 loss to the Phillies, Greenberg tried to sew a few seeds of hope: "I think we have an exciting young team. I think the future of this organization is incredibly bright." Which, if you've been listening, sounds a lot like everything they've been selling over the course of their soon-to-be 10-year playoff drought.
"Our job in the front office is to keep a pulse on the greater direction of the organization: things that are going well, things that aren’t going as well and areas where we can get better," said Greenberg, hired last September as Harris' top lieutenant. "We are constantly obsessing over ways to get better. Often times in those conversations, it helps to preserve that 30,000-foot view of what is happening across the organization and across the industry."
The micro view as that the Tigers are 36-42, 15 games out of first in what was supposed to be a highly-winnable division -- credit the Guardians for raising the bar -- and fading quickly in the wild card race. They are closer in winning percentage to the moribund A's than the rebuilt Orioles, who just three years ago were the worst team in baseball.
"I think across the organization there is a lot of really exciting stuff happening, starting at the big league level," said Greenberg. "We have a young team that is hungry. We are not where we want to be yet. There is a lot of work that goes into what our guys are doing every day to get better and push forward. I think you’re seeing that across the team."
Greenberg touted Detroit's rotation, which boasts a 3.79 ERA led by the trio of Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson. He also pointed to the bullpen, which has struggled after a strong start and fallen out of the top half of the majors in ERA. As for the offense, whose .673 OPS ranks among the worst in the league in a year where the MLB average is .704, "We have one of the four or five youngest lineups in baseball," said Greenberg.
"And the offensive environment in baseball right now is really unforgiving for young hitters," he said. "You see it across the league. There are adjustments taking place throughout our group, and I think you’re seeing a lot of exciting progress in a lot of different areas."
Greenberg cited 23-year-old Riley Greene, who has a career-best .848 OPS, along with "guys like Matt Vierling, younger players coming up like Wenceel Pérez, Colt Keith, some of the adjustments he’s worked through."
Vierling and Pérez have been pleasant surprises as everyday players, Pérez in particular in his first MLB season. It'd be a stretch to call either one of them everyday players on a playoff-caliber team. Keith has been hot and cold in his rookie season, warmer of late.
Meanwhile, Spencer Torkelson has sunk to the point of another demotion to Toledo, Parker Meadows drowned a month into the season and Justyn-Henry Malloy is struggling to keep his head above water in Detroit. Whenever he gets the call, is Jace Jung making a splash?
"There is a ton of uncertainty that goes into the exercise of building for the future," said Greenberg. "There are just so many things that we cannot control, whether it’s injuries, how a player may develop, the adversities that players are inevitably going to have to handle as they come up, potential changes to the rules, other things that affect the day-to-day mechanics of an MLB season."
The Tigers do have a degree of control over player development, an area where they must improve for Harris and Greenberg to ever build something of substance in Detroit. And they could remove some of the uncertainty in building for the future by adding more proven hitters in the present. If that's not on their agenda this offseason, in an age where Harris likes to point out that the gap between Triple-A and the majors is wider than ever, then their plan boils down to hope.
"But it comes back to creating an environment of relentless development at every area of the organization," said Greenberg. "It starts with our players, who want to be great, want to win, want to push each other to get better. I think we’re absolutely seeing that right now throughout the organization."
Just not to the level -- and at the level -- that matters most.
"There’s no shortcut," said Greenberg. "There’s no silver bullet that just gets you there faster. It’s day by day, that slow build. But if we can do those things consistently and stack them on top of each other across the organization, it’s going to leave us in a better spot."
In looking across the organization, the Tigers do have one of the stronger farm systems in baseball. That includes two premium prospects in 21-year-old pitcher Jackson Jobe and 19-year-old outfielder Max Clark, the third overall pick in last year's draft. They should add another high-level prospect with the 11th overall pick in this year's draft. But all that potential doesn't matter unless it's fulfilled in Detroit.
If the Tigers even had a league-average offense, they might look more like the Royals, who are 12th in team ERA, 15th in OPS and very much in the AL playoff race. Detroit is 11th in team ERA and 24th in OPS and all but out of it at the halfway mark.
The accelerant for the Tigers would be making meaningful offensive upgrades this winter, unless they consider that a shortcut. That's the dirty little secret of rebuilds, which provide cover for losing execs: they can drag on as long as you want them to.
"The work never stops. That effort to get better and attack each day never stops," said Greenberg. "But I think we’re at an exciting point for the organization."
Really, they're stuck. Their words are just an answer for inertia, and the sound of an organization that keeps falling for the future.
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