New poll shows tight race as Harris, Trump prepare for key debate

A bit more than 48 hours before Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump battle it out for the first time on a Philadelphia debate stage, a new poll shows the two opponents essentially neck and neck.

But the poll, conducted by the New York Times and Sienna College and released on Sunday, set off some warning signs for Harris, including that 71% said they know what they need to know about her, compared to 90% for Trump.

The two face each other in a debate hosted by the ABC television network on Tuesday at 9 pm (0100 GMT).

Overall the survey of likely voters showed Trump with 48% compared to Harris with 47%. Looking at all registered voters, Harris is at 46% and Trump at 48 %, which is within the 3% margin of error.

The newspaper noted that while Trump has had a tough month following US President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race, his support is remarkably stable. But that these results show that support for Trump has not dwindled should be a warning sign to Harris, the paper suggested.

T V debate will be a test for Harris

In the run-up to the presidential election on November 5, just about every new poll makes headlines in the United States.

The current poll is being watched particularly closely because it shows a lead for Trump in a major non-partisan national poll for the first time in around a month.

However, it is impossible to say for certain at this stage whether support for Harris has faltered or if the hype surrounding her has died down since she entered the race - or both. More polls are needed for that.

Polls with limited significance

An analysis by US broadcaster CNN of several polls conducted since the Democratic Party convention in August also shows a close race between 59-year-old Harris and 78-year-old Trump, with no clear frontrunner.

According to these polls, Harris has 49% support, while Trump has 47%.

In the complicated US electoral system, national surveys are just one barometer of public opinion.

Most observers are focusing on the so-called swing states, which include Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and a handful of others.

The two candidates are roughly tied in these key electorates.