The Memorial Tournament 2024: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The Memorial Tournament 2024 presented by Workday begins on Thursday, June 6, at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. Muirfield Village, also known as "Jack's Place", was designed by golf icon Jack Nicklaus and has hosted the tournament every year since its inception in 1976. The course stretches 7,569 yards and features tight fairways, thick four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass rough, lightning-quick Bentgrass green complexes, and 13 holes with water hazards.

After Patrick Cantlay reached 19-under to win at Muirfield Village in 2019, Nicklaus immediately went to work on a remodel to ensure the course provided more of a challenge to the best players in the world. Nicklaus tore up all 18 green complexes to add new slopes and contours, added over 150 yards in distance (mostly on the par-5s), restructured tee boxes, pinched in the fairways, and repositioned fairway and greenside sand bunkers to account for modern technology. Over the past three years, Muirfield Village has ranked in the top 10 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour.

The 80-player field this week is loaded with star power, as World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler , Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, and defending champion Viktor Hovland are all teeing it up at Jack's Place. Patrick Cantlay, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Sam Burns, and Sahith Theegala are also in the field.

Related: The Memorial Tournament 2024: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds

Last time, Viktor Hovland defeated Denny McCarthy in a playoff to earn his first U.S.-based victory on the PGA Tour. Hovland made an incredible 30-foot birdie putt on the 17th hole on Sunday -- the only birdie of the day on that hole — to fire a 2-under 70 and tie McCarthy for the lead at 7-under. McCarthy bogeyed the 18th hole in regulation and again on the first playoff hole to fall just short of his first win on Tour. Scottie Scheffler, who gained over 20 strokes from tee to green, missed out on the playoff by one stroke and finished third.

Let's get into my picks this week at Muirfield Village!

FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS

Collin Morikawa (+1600 BetRivers Enhanced)

After a lackluster start to the 2024 season, Morikawa has been trending in the proper direction over the past couple of months. The two-time major champion has six consecutive top-25 finishes, highlighted by a T3 at The Masters, while also coming ninth at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the PGA Championship, and fourth at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Morikawa's biggest asset has always been his iron play, and he's starting to flash his elite upside in that area once again. The 27-year-old California native gained 5.1 strokes on his approach shots at Augusta in mid-April, and he's popped for over three strokes in his past two outings. With minuscule targets into the greens this week at Muirfield Village, Morikawa's precision should allow him to have a leg up over his competition.

While short-game woes have held Morikawa back in his young career, he's made notable strides this season. Among all players in the field, Morikawa ranks fourth in Sand Saves, sixth in SG: Around The Green, and 29th in SG: Putting over the past 24 rounds. He's also gained strokes in the short-game categories in five straight starts, the first time he's accomplished that feat since joining the PGA Tour. Four of those five outings have led to gains of over three strokes.

Morikawa's ability to play a clean game from tee to green should do him wonders on a tricky track this week. He ranks first in Good Drive Percentage, first in Fairways Gained, and sixth in SG: Tee To Green over the past 24 rounds. Morikawa also ranks third in SG: Nicklaus Designs, third in SG: Muirfield Village, and fourth in SG: Hard Courses.

It shouldn't be surprising to see Morikawa's past success on this course, as he won the Workday Charity Open in 2020 here and lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay in 2021. He was also just two shots off the lead heading into the final round last year before a back spasm forced him to withdraw shortly before his tee time. Given his track record at Muirfield Village, past success on Nicklaus-designed courses, and his well-rounded form entering this week, there was no way I passed on Morikawa to kickstart my card.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4500 FanDuel)

Hideki isn't getting a ton of love entering this week, and I've learned over the years that's kind of when you want to be betting on the 32-year-old Japanese superstar. He's only played once since the Masters in mid-April, which came at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla. While the result shows a mediocre yet respectable T35, Matsuyama was playing great through 36 holes and was just five shots off the lead before plummeting over the weekend.

It's been over two months since we've seen Hideki play elite-level golf, but he's quietly been uber-consistent all season. The 2021 Masters champion has gained over four strokes to the field in seven of his past nine starts and still rates out as one of the top 10 players this week according to my model. Among all players in the field, he ranks first in SG: Around The Green, first in SG: Par-4s (450-500 Yards), fourth in SG: Tee To Green, sixth in Bogey Avoidance, 10th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 11th in Par-3s (200+ Yards), 12th in SG: Hard Courses, 16th in Scrambling, 16th in Greens in Regulation, and 18th in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds. I know that was a lot... but it's tough to ignore all those impressive statistics.

Hideki picked up his breakthrough victory at Muirfield Village in 2014, and he's also racked up two top-six finishes and a pair of top-16s here in his 10 starts. While there are two missed cuts and a DQ in 2022 sprinkled in there, I believe he's plenty comfortable at Jack's Place and is more than capable of popping up out of nowhere to win this tournament.

Another interesting tidbit when researching Matsuyama's season thus far is he's on a semi-similar path to when he won back in February at The Genesis Invitational. Like this week, he was flying a bit under the radar after being popular in the betting market the few events prior. Hideki also had lost strokes with his irons in two consecutive events (Phoenix Open & Pebble Beach) and was coming off a shotty showing with the driver in his previous outing. Well, that's precisely what he did at the Masters and PGA Championship leading into The Memorial. I'm aware that doesn't mean it WILL happen again, but at 45/1 odds on a course where he's found tremendous success, I don't think I can stay away. Let's ride, Deki.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Byeong Hun An (+5500 BetRivers Enhanced)

An quietly still sits in the top 10 in the FedExCup Standings, as he's been playing the most consistent golf of his entire career. The 32-year-old South Korean's season has been littered with impressive finishes, coming runner-up at the Sony Open, third at the Wells Fargo Championship, fourth at The Sentry, T4 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T16 at The Masters, and T16 at the Genesis Invitational.

The ball-striking numbers have been sharp all year for Benny An, losing strokes to the field in that category twice in 14 outings. Since a painful missed cut at THE PLAYERS Championship though, An has kicked it into another gear, as he's popped for over three strokes in five of his last six starts. Among all players in the field, An ranks in the top 10 in Total Driving, Proximity From 200+ Yards, SG: Par-3s (200+ Yards), and Greens In Regulation Percentage. His total driving prowess and splendid long-iron abilities are perfect for Muirfield Village's layout.

Perhaps more encouraging is the recent uptick An's made with his short game. After a painful stretch in which he dropped nearly 15 strokes on the greens in three starts, An has bounced back nicely and ranks seventh (!) in SG: Putting over the past 12 rounds. He's responded by gaining strokes in the short-game category in three consecutive appearances and ranks 27th in Sand Saves and 34th in Bogey Avoidance over the past 24 rounds.

As someone who's backed An numerous times this season, I feel it's necessary to give him one more opportunity at a course where he's found plenty of success in his career. An has amassed five top-25 results in eight starts at Muirfield Village, including a playoff loss in 2018 to up-and-coming superstar Bryson DeChambeau. He's gained over five strokes to the field in all five top-25s.

With countless close calls this season and outstanding history at Jack's Place, I'm willing to roll the dice with Benny for one more week.

Shane Lowry (+7000 DraftKings)

Lowry struggled out the gate last week in Canada but put together a solid final three rounds en route to a ho-hum T33 finish. While there wasn't anything to write home about, Lowry quietly gained strokes across the board and recently came T6 at another Jack Nicklaus design in Valhalla Golf Club.

Lowry's not known for his power but he consistently finds fairways from off the tee, ranking 12th in Total Driving over the past 24 rounds. The 37-year-old Irishman hasn't lost strokes with his driver since the Cognizant Classic in early March, and he's paired that by gaining over two strokes with his irons in six of his last eight appearances. Lowry also ranks fifth in the field in Greens In Regulation Percentage.

Like Morikawa and Benny An, there have been encouraging developments in Lowry's short game, as he's gained strokes around the greens AND with the putter in two straight starts for the first time since 2022. When diving into his history at Muirfield Village, it's also worth noting he hasn't lost strokes on the greens since Nicklaus' remodel in 2020. If Lowry can hover around field average with the flat stick this week, I expect him to be in the mix to win the tournament.

It's also worth mentioning Lowry has been outstanding in his career at Nicklaus-designed tracks, with a T6 at Muirfield Village in 2021 along with two additional top-20s, three consecutive top-fives at PGA National, and a T12 at Glen Abbey GC in 2018. Not to mention his recent T6 at Valhalla for the 2024 PGA Championship. Lowry often contends on these setups where accuracy off the tee and long-iron precision can separate him from the pack.

With his tee-to-green game in great shape and fine history around Muirfield Village (specifically on the putting surfaces), I'll take a chance on Lowry at 70/1 odds this week.

All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *

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