La Niña is stirring as fall bustles with activity, and before we realize it, winter will be upon us. This season could be starkly different from last year's El Niño dominated winter, with the stage set for a more frigid season, courtesy of a weak La Niña.
This anticipated La Niña is set to leave its mark on temperatures, precipitation, and consequently, snowfall patterns across the United States.
What is La Niña?
It is a natural climate pattern characterized by cooler than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It plays a substantial role in weather changes, with the effects being exceptionally pronounced during the Northern Hemisphere's winter months.
Looking back, the last winter was the warmest on record for the Lower 48 thanks to the events counterpart - El Niño.
This resultant prolonged warmth played a part in minimizing heavy snow events in the Northeast and Midwest, leading to a winter 'snow drought'.
Arrival of La Niña
La Niña isn't a certainty yet, but the odds are stacking in her favor. The Climate Prediction Center sees a 60% chance of La Niña making her presence known come November. Should she arrive, she's expected to overstay her welcome right through winter and likely into the early spring of next year.
However, the strength of La Niña, when it does form, matters significantly. According to Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami , a stronger La Niña can cause a more "consistent" impact on weather.
Although other weather and climate phenomena might disrupt a weaker event, La Niña, whether El Niño or Niña, typically exerts an outsized effect on winter weather in the US.
The current forecasts suggest a weaker La Niña, but the situation remains fluid. Regardless, the Climate Prediction Center's recent forecast shows the classic signs of typical La Niña winters.
Embracing the winter chill
The winter we are about to receive could be anything but mundane. As Jon Gottschalck, chief of the center’s operational prediction branch, predicts, it could be one filled with frequent weather changes rather than prolonged periods of consistent weather.
Two key factors guide the behavior of La Niña winters - temperature and precipitation trends. The jet stream often shifts north during a La Niña winter, moving stormy weather from the South to the northern parts of the US.
Weather forecasts across the U.S.
The Climate Prediction Center's forecasts show a likelihood of the northern U.S. receiving more rainfall this winter, key in battling ongoing aridity and drought, particularly in the Midwest. In contrast to last year's wetter South and drier North, we're in for a significant flip.
Higher than usual precipitation doesn't necessarily mean a heavier snowfall. Temperatures must still be cold enough for snow to fall and remain on the ground.
A weaker La Niña often allows for increased snow in the Northeast, but stronger La Niñas can lead to more limited snowfall due to warmer temperatures creeping up the East Coast.
The upcoming winter is predicted to be warmer across the southern U.S. and much of the East. While some may rejoice, snow lovers in the Northeast might not find this forecast favorable.
Drier and warmer conditions across the South suggests that the existing drought conditions could worsen throughout the season.
Midwesterners, the Plains, and the Rockies might experience standard winter temperatures. Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Dakotas might have to embrace cooler climes.
Upcoming winter of extremes
The wetter and cooler condition combination could potentially translate into more snow for the Pacific Northwest. This would be good news for winter tourism and to ensure an adequate water supply for the warmer months.
Southern California, however, could expect a drier, warmer season - quite typical for a La Niña winter. The area would certainly benefit from a soaking rain period to put an end to wildfire season.
With a La Niña winter in the offing, we can expect a winter seasoned with a fair share of weather extremes, warns Michael Morgan, NOAA’s assistant secretary of commerce for observation and prediction. As we countdown to winter, keep an eye on the evolving forecasts to know what to expect.
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