Michigan State Spartans Preview 2024
After a rough run of three losing seasons in the last four, here’s where it starts to turn back around for Michigan State football.
It'll take a little bit, but everything will be fine in the new world of the Big Ten and in college football as a whole.
Other than having to play a loaded Ohio State in September - Michigan State hasn't won in the series since 2015 - and having to deal with a trip to Oregon, there are enough breaks to be happy.
The Big Ten loaded up with fantastic former Pac-12 programs, but there's no USC, Washington, or UCLA on the slate.
There's also no Minnesota, Wisconsin, or improved Nebraska and Northwestern teams. Making things even better, the “rivalry” against Penn State that the Big Ten tried to make a thing was so vital that the two don’t play this year.
Michigan State also misses Jim Harbaugh, whose Michigan teams beat the Spartans over the last two seasons by a combined score of 78-7.
The Wolverines will still be great with its former head coach off to the Chargers, but they'll almost certainly take a wee step back into being mere mortals again.
Meanwhile, the Spartans got a head man who's used to dealing with the monster other in-state school while coaching at the place with the word State in it.
Not only did Jonathan Smith figure out how to make Oregon State dangerous and competitive in the Pac-12, but he did it as Oregon rose up again into near-superpower status.
But for now, forget about that team down the road, and that other one in Columbus. Focus on a just-manageable enough schedule to get the program back on track.
There were key personnel losses after last year's meltdown disaster, but the transfer portal was kind enough to at least get back to the 7-6 days of the final two seasons under Mark Dantonio.
Smith’s Beaver squads were tough, hard-nosed on the lines, and had an underdog us-against-the-world thing going - and it worked. Michigan State is about to have that, too.
Michigan State Preview 2024: Offense
- Not surprisingly, the offense fizzled after all of the problems with the coaching staff kicked in. The line wasn’t totally awful, but the running game was the worst in the Big Ten, the passing attack couldn’t make up for it, and … yeah, the line was pretty bad.
That should be one of the biggest changes under offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren - Michigan State will block. The Oregon State offense under Lindgren wasn’t a dominant force, but it was good enough.
Bringing in all-star C Tanner Miller from the Beavers to go along with OG Andrew Dennis from Illinois should make an immediate difference.
- The running game will be far, far better. Nate Carter wasn’t bad last year considering he didn’t have much room to move. He led the team with close to 800 yards and four scores, and in comes Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams, a former Rutgers back who ran for 1,157 yards and 12 touchdowns last year for UMass. But …
- The season revolves around do-it-all quarterback prospect Aidan Chiles. The star get for Oregon State last season got in a little work in a bit of a rotation with DJ Uiagalelei, and now he’ll be the Michigan State franchise under his familiar coaching staff.
The receiving corps was okay last year, but Chiles will make it better. TE Jack Velling comes in from Oregon State and will be an All-Big Ten performer, MSU leading receiver Montorie Foster will be a go-to veteran in the slot, and Jaron Glover is back on the outside after averaging 18.6 yards per catch.
Michigan State Preview 2024: Defense
- The defense was obliterated by the top teams - Washington rolled up 713 yards in East Lansing, Ohio State and Penn State combined for over 1,100 - but for the most part things weren’t all that bad. It was decent against the run, solid on third downs, and there was enough of a pass rush to matter.
Now it’s up to the transfer portal to try making things even better.
- The defensive front seven welcomes in nine new options to work in a rotation. It starts in the linebacking corps where Jordan Turner (Wisconsin) and tackling machine Wayne Matthews (Old Dominion) should be terrors right away around Cal Haladay, the team’s leading tackler with 307 stops over the last three years.
Quandaries Dunnigan (Middle Tennessee) on the outside and D’Quan Douse (Georgie Tech) and Ben Roberts (Oregon) inside will help overcome a slew of key Spartan losses to the portal.
- The secondary is a bit more home grown. Much maligned over the last few seasons, there should be more production even with a few key departures.
Losing top safety Jaden Mangham to Michigan stings, but second-leading tackler Malik Spencer is back in a nickel spot and Dillon Tatum is a nice safety when the ball is in the air. The corners are more questionable, hoping Arizona State transfer Ed Woods can handle a starting spot right away.
Michigan State Key To The Season
Start converting third downs.
And it’s not a given that it’ll be better under the new coaching staff.
Oregon State had a good ground game and a decent passing attack, and yet it was totally mediocre at keeping things moving, converting just 38.5% of its third down chances. But yes, things will be better after Michigan State had the lowest third down conversion percentage - 30.9% - in decades.
Michigan State Key Player
WR Montorie Foster, Sr.
The receiving corps had to undergo an overhaul, and it showed. You don’t get better with the passing attack after losing Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed, but Foster did what he could as a steady producer with a team-high 43 catches for 576 yards and three scores.
With Chiles under center the receiving corps should be more dangerous, and getting more big things out of Foster as a No. 1 would be a huge help.
Michigan State Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss
Top Transfer In: QB Aidan Chiles
A great dual-threat get for Oregon State, he became one of the biggest players in the portal. There was never any real drama; he was following Jonathan Smith to East Lansing.
He’s tall, can move, and is deadly accurate. Michigan State has had a slew of good passers, but Chiles has a different type of skill set - he should be special.
Top Transfer Out: DE Derrick Harmon
It’s never a plus to lose a 6-5, 330-pound defensive tackle who came up with 70 tackles over the last two seasons. The Spartans should be okay on the inside, but nose the other side of the ball gets to deal with Harmon on the nose on October 5th at Oregon.
Michigan State Key Game
at Maryland, Sept. 7
It’s a winnable Big Ten game before dealing with a murderous conference run. This is early, and it comes before two non-conference games, but lose in College Park and there’s a real shot at an 0-5 Big Ten start. So who’s next? Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Michigan.
Michigan State 10 Best Players
1. Aidan Chiles, QB Soph.
2. Tanner Miller, C Sr.
3. Cal Haladay, LB Sr.
4. Jordan Hall, LB Soph.
5. Malik Spencer, S Jr.
6. Wayne Matthews, LB Jr.
7. Nate Carter, RB Jr.
8. Jack Velling, TE Jr.
9. Dillon Tatum, S Jr.
10. Ryan Eckley, P Soph.
Michigan State 2023 Fun Stats
- Penalties: Michigan State 84 for 728 yards, Opponents 56 for 575 yards
- 2nd Quarter Scoring: Opponents 124, Michigan State 56
- 2 Point Conversions: Opponents 2-for-3, Michigan State 0-for-2
Michigan State 2024 Season Prediction, Win Total, What Will Happen
It took a while before Jonathan Smith was able to get Oregon State going.
He suffered through three straight losing seasons before things turned in 2021. 2022 was terrific, and last year the team was ranked tenth during the season before finishing 8-4.
It’s not going to take quite that long for Smith to make Michigan State good again, but Spartan fans might have to wait for November before things start to happen.
Don’t get freaked out by a bad early record. At Maryland, at Boston College, Ohio State, at Oregon, Iowa, at Michigan - win two of those and the Smith era will be off and running.
Indiana, at Illinois, Purdue, Rutgers - that’s November, and that has to be a 3-1 run. Take that with likely wins over Florida Atlantic and Prairie View A&M in the first three weeks, and after three losing seasons in the last four the Spartans will get back to a bowl game.
Set The Michigan State Win Total At … 7
Likely Wins: Florida Atlantic, Indiana, Prairie View A&M, Purdue
50/50 Games: at Boston College, at Illinois, Iowa, at Maryland, Rutgers
Likely Losses: Ohio State, at Oregon, at Michigan
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