Padres should tread carefully with Jurickson Profar extension

The Padres have gotten an incredible season from Jurickson Profar, especially considering his lack of a major hit to the payroll. Now that deal is set to expire, the Padres need to tread carefully when considering an extension and a pay raise.

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When the Padres signed Jurickson Profar to a measly $1 million contract this spring, most assumed he was a stop-gap in left field until the Padres could acquire an upgrade.

There is no way anyone saw what has transpired in the 2024 season.

In short, Profar has been the team's MVP. He leads the team with a 135 OPS+, .835 OPS, and .380 on-base percentage. Even as other players have emerged, like Jackson Merrill and Manny Machado, have returned to form, Profar was consistent for nearly the entire season.

Obviously, a man playing on a $1 million deal who notched his first All-Star bid and is one of the top hitters on the team will expect a raise next year. And he deserves it.

However, the Padres need to exercise caution in approaching Profar about an extension. It's clear he loves playing in San Diego. It's equally clear his teammates love having him around in the Padres clubhouse.

A.J. Preller and the Padres have not been afraid to issue out extensions in the past. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Jake Cronenworth, and Robert Suarez all received extensions with the team.

However, that is not always a good thing. Jake Cronenworth will make over $11 million next season and has been a league-average bat. Joe Musgrove will get $60 million over the next three seasons. He has struggled to stay healthy and when healthy, he has posted a pedestrian 3.75 ERA and 112 ERA+. Those numbers need to be better, and he needs to stay healthier, given how much money he is getting.

With Profar, it's not necessarily about health. He's been very durable, even playing through some pain throughout this season. That is to be commended and admired. Clearly, he is one of the straws that stirs the drink of the 2024 Padres.

A player who is putting together a season above an .800 OPS would likely command north of $20 million on the open market normally.

With Profar, it's not that simple. First, he is 31 years old. It's fair to wonder how big his window is for this kind of production, given he is on the wrong side of 30.

Secondly, while this season has been incredible, it's hard to ignore a decade's worth of data suggesting he is not an MVP-caliber player. In over 900 games before this season, he had a .239 batting average, .706 OPS, and 92 OPS+. He is dwarfing those numbers this season.

Also, we can't ignore the fact that he has been in a gigantic slump since the beginning of August. In 35 games since August 1, he is batting .209 with a .706 OPS. However, he is currently on a five-game hitting streak, hitting .300 with a .864 OPS in that time.

Did he finally unlock something that he can sustain? Or he is riding a prolonged hot streak with a clubhouse he enjoys being around? That is what A.J. Preller must consider when working on an extension for Profar.

Let's be clear- Profar belongs on the 2025 Padres in some capacity. He has earned that. He earned an extension with stellar play. That doesn't mean the Padres should blindly throw money his direction. Especially with where the finances have been this season and where they want to go moving forward, the Padres need to be smart about this.

So, what would a savvy extension for the Padres and Profar look like?

Profar deserves a raise, to be sure. He adds value as a switch hitter. As a bat-first outfielder who is middling defensively, there is certainly a ceiling to his value. Then, of course, there are the intangibles of what he means to this team. Clearly, he has a positive influence in the clubhouse. That has value.

The Padres already have around $184 million committed to next year's payroll, which would be just under $50 million shy of the tax threshold. That's also with more pending free agents other than just Profar, with Tanner Scott and Ha-Seong Kim, among others, set to hit the open market. How much of that free money should the Padres commit to Profar?

There is another All-Star, switch-hitting outfielder, we can model the deal after. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates signed an eight-year, $106.75 million extension ahead of the 2023 season. That averages out to about $13.3 million per season. Given Reynolds is younger with a bit longer of a track record of success than Profar, that deal would be the max ceiling.

Given Profar's age and decade-long history of average-to-below-average play, he shouldn't be offered an extension with the average annual value north of $13 million.

If both sides can agree on a two-year extension that could add up to $24 million with some incentives, that would be ideal. The Padres need to protect themselves against Profar, possibly bottoming out, but also reward him for further stellar play.