Padres vs. Diamondbacks Series Preview (September 27-29)

The final series of the season takes the San Diego Padres to Arizona to face off with the division-rival Diamondbacks. San Diego has a magic number of one to clinch the top wild card spot, while Arizona attempts to end a recent skid.

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Lining up ...

Arizona is 5-5 over their last ten games but has managed to maintain a grasp on the second Wild Card spot. This series is crucial for playoff seeding, as San Diego needs one win to secure home-field advantage in the Wild Card. If Arizona is able to sweep the Padres, then they would win the season series and hold the tiebreaker. The Diamondbacks will likely send out a lineup like this against Padres right-handers this weekend:

Corbin Carroll - RF

Ketel Marte - 2B

Joc Pederson - DH

Christian Walker - 1B

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.- LF

Jake McCarthy - CF

Eugenio Suarez - 3B

Gabriel Moreno - C

Geraldo Perdomo - SS

Arizona has one of the league’s best offenses over the second half of the season and is one of few teams in baseball that can lean heavily on speed. The D-Backs made a living off the stolen base in the postseason and have continued to thrive on wreaking havoc on the bases. The D-Backs’ offense has played a major role in their success in the second half, and with Eugenio Suarez and Corbin Carroll returning to form, this lineup could be dangerous in this series and beyond.

Padres with RISP:

This series - .120 (3-25)

Last 10 - .186 (14-75)

This season - .273

Third highest season average with RISP. Guess who's first? The Arizona Diamondbacks.

— Darnay Tripp (@DarnayTripp) September 27, 2024

In order to have a successful series, it is in the Padres’ pitching staff’s best interest to limit the running game. The Padres’ staff is not the best match on paper for Arizona, as the lone announced starter for San Diego (Yu Darvish) has ranked as below-average at holding runners. To amplify the issue, Padres catcher Kyle Higashioka has been below-average at throwing out base stealers this season. While the Padres’ batteries this weekend will have a tough task, it is not impossible.

On the hill…

The starting pitchers for the series have been announced by both teams, and the matchups leave some questions. Both teams have only announced starters for Friday night, and the matchups appear as follows:

• September 27 - Yu Darvish (SD) vs Merrill Kelly (AZ)
• September 28 - TBD (SD) vs TBD (AZ)
• September 29 - TBD (SD) vs TBD (AZ)

Merrill Kelly has been announced as the Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher for Friday night’s game. Kelly is coming off two strong starts where he has allowed one run over eleven innings, and in September, Kelly has scattered 14 hits across 22 innings, striking out 22. Kelly has pitched very well against the Padres in his career, with a 3.05 ERA across 82.2 innings, but he has allowed 11 runs in 17.1 innings in his last three starts against San Diego.

The Diamondbacks have yet to announce starters for the weekend games, as there is a chance the Padres clinch home field for the Wild Card Series on Friday. Ryne Nelson is a candidate to start one of the two games, as the right-hander was just activated off the 15-day injured list on September 26. Nelson has faced the Padres three times this season, allowing ten earned runs in 15 innings (6.00 ERA). Jordan Montgomery is a candidate to start the final game of the series, but the Diamondbacks could turn to an arm like Slade Cecconi to take the mound should their playoff spot be locked in.

Notables:

• The Padres are 5-5 against the Diamondbacks this season, and this series has a major role in seeding.
• The Padres haven’t announced a starter for September 28 or 29, and it is possible they turn to an arm like Randy Vasquez if they manage to clinch the fourth seed in the playoffs with a win on Friday.
• Padres starter Yu Darvish has not faced the Diamondbacks this season. He has faced Arizona an whopping 13 times while donning the brown and gold, posting a 3.82 ERA in that span.

The series kicks off Friday, September 27, with Yu Darvish on the mound. Watch live on Padres.TV or listen on 97.3 The Fan