Political analyst shares insight into future for Biden ahead of DNC

EL PASO, Texas ( KTSM ) — More Democrats are calling for President Joe Biden to drop out of the 2024 presidential election amid concerns over his ability to continue leading the nation.

After a poor performance during the first 2024 presidential debate and recent Covid diagnosis, more than 20 Democratic leaders have publicly voiced their disapproval of nominating Biden for a second term as president at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).

With the DNC one month away, Dr. Richard Pineda, political analyst and director of the Sam Donaldson Center for Communication Studies, explained what the party divide could mean for the election.

What does a divided front for democrats portray to voters?

Pineda:

Well, it’s incredibly challenging, and especially since we just finished with the Republican National Committee’s big convention where they nominated former President Trump. So, the conventions for both parties are very much like pep rallies. I’ll be looking to see whether or not President Trump got a bump in the polls after this convention, but that makes the situation for President Biden even more complicated. If he goes into the Chicago convention and is still the candidate and insistent that he is the person to be the nominee, there’s a good chance that the convention becomes contested. There’s a good chance that a lot of support continues to drop off. That’s the real problem for the Democrats, as a whole right now, is not only are they worried about support for the president, but you’ll hear this more and more, concerns that having the president in the state that he’s in, stand as the nominee, will also affect down-ballot races. In other words, any of the places where Democrats are on the ballot in Senate or congressional seats or even local elections, there is some concern that this lack of attention, lack of excitement will just keep rolling down to those ballots.

What are the main concerns Democrats are expressing when calling for Biden to step down?

Pineda:

I think the biggest concern is age. I think that that was heightened by the debate. You know, the debate sort of showed the president in what seem like a weakened state. So right after the debate, I mean, as quickly as that first hour after the debate, people expressed concern and they said this is exactly what we had been talking about, concerns about health, concerns about his stamina to be able to do the job. I think those have only picked up. Then, of course, the recent announcement that the president has COVID. This is just terrible timing. It’s less about catching COVID and those side effects, but more about the idea that it’s just one more thing. So, I think all of this is piling on. I think there were already concerns about the age before, but I think the debate really was an unfortunate moment in the presidency in that it was a very public space in which the president had a very difficult time, at least at the beginning of the debate.

Would Biden have to drop out before the DNC for Democrats to pick another nominee? If he drops out after securing the nomination would what that mean?

Pineda:

Well, one thing that’s interesting and important for viewers to remember is that the rules, the convention are not laws. They are essentially policies that are driven by the respective committees. The DNC can make rules however they see fit going into the convention to determine the nominee. I think the most efficient path, for lack of a better description, is the president stepping down before the convention. That is handing power over to the vice president. She goes into the convention as the nominee and then they pick a vice presidential running mate to be on the ticket with her. I say the easiest because in some ways that ensures a kind of continuity in terms of the process. There are, however, other alternatives that are being discussed and that’s where it gets really messy, really quick. So, you’ve got a lot of different people whose names are being tossed out. Gavin Newsom from California. Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan. But at that point, it really does become about the rules the DNC sets for the convention. But in some ways, it’s almost impossible to figure out what happens. But remember, all of this relies on the president himself saying that he is not going to stand for the nomination or potentially even step down as president. Otherwise, he could say he wants to be the nominee. They could get to the convention; the convention floor could open up and then, it really is anybody’s guess at that point.

At this point would a new nominee sway a voter at all?

Pineda:

I think that that the other thing that a lot of viewers forget is that at this point, you really have two pools of voters that are, for the most part, locked up. And I think even when enthusiasm on the Democratic side is low, you have, I think, the bulk of Democratic voters that are still going to vote Democrat. They’re not going to change unless there’s some radical departure. Even folks who are saying that they’re worried about President Biden, aren’t saying, ‘I’m going to switch parties.’ So, what you’re really looking at are a pool of potential undecided voters or as I’ve described, these very important pools of voters like moderate white Republican women who might be concerned with the drift of the Republican Party. So that’s really who you’re thinking about the most. Here is the upside, if there is one to thinking about a transition in the Democratic ticket. You would get a major bump in enthusiasm and a major bump in excitement, even if it was guardedly optimistic. The reason is because it would be such a game change at such a late time. That comes with a lot of potential landmines as well. But, the idea that you would have a new candidate at the 11th hour, possibly Kamala Harris, and in that case would be the move to have a potential female president again. I think that that kind of excitement is probably what the strategists in the party are hedging on. I don’t think that any change in the party is likely to lose them voters. I think what might happen is that you diminish the excitement. But truly, right now, if the president looks the way that he does and there are concerns, I think that any change actually results in a positive shift for the Democratic Party. I think that’s probably part of the reason that the calls for him to step down have been snowballing, because I think a lot of people are saying, ‘Look, this may not be worse than what we have right now. So, let’s try, plan B, if you will.’

Has something like this happened before in previous elections?

Pineda:

No. Contemporarily I mean, the conventions have often been, as I said, very much pep rallies. So, it’s a couple of days to kind of see the candidates, to get people unified on the party themes. You know, you’ve got some historical examples where there have been contentious floor fights, but nothing like this. And I think the other thing that’s significant for viewers is to think about the role that media and social media are playing in this conversation. So, one of the things that was true immediately after the debate, for example, was the sort of outcry of media outlets like The New York Times essentially saying the president should step down. I mean, that really does talk about the power of media, and I think that’s significant. I also think the idea of social media at this particular moment. So, you had memes that were making fun of the president and names that were sort of poking at the sort of the inability to articulate answers on stage. I think we’re in a really unique era. So not only is it unprecedented in terms of the history of what a convention and a nomination and a campaign process looks like, we’re also, I think, in an unprecedented and remarkable times in terms of media and technology and the way that people are using it, the way that that’s being used to stoke certain kinds of reactions. I mean, that to me, I think, is also incredibly important.

The 2024 Republic National Convention wrapped up with the GOP nominating Donald Trump as their candidate.

The 2024 DNC will take place in Chicago from August 19 through August 22.

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