Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips . MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET , and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring .
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
The workload watch begins
Paul Skenes has been a fantasy sensation throughout this, his rookie season. Since debuting in the majors on May 11, he has the third-most fantasy points among starting pitchers (280), and is the major league leader in ERA (2.30). He was the National League's starting pitcher in the All-Star Game and places among the top five in WHIP, quality starts, strikeouts and K rate.
Skenes is the betting favorite for National League Rookie of the Year honors, though the Pittsburgh Pirates will soon begin reining in his workload. Per multiple sources, the team plans to do this more via shortening his outings than skipping his starts or shutting him down entirely, a plan that could begin with his scheduled Wednesday start.
Though the Pirates have provided Skenes a long leash thus far in the majors, affording him at least 91 pitches in all but the first of his 16 big-league starts and an average of 97.5 across all 16, they have also done so having him pitch on a strict pattern of at least five days' rest each turn. Three times, the team required a spot starter to grant him the extra day's rest, and in his year-plus professional career, he has pitched on five or more days' rest in all but three of his 28 appearances, with only one of those with him having thrown more than an inning in his prior outing.
That's not to serve Skenes' panic button on a plate, ready for you to push it! He might well have similarly excellent production yet to give, at least over his next few outings. But facing facts, Skenes has amassed 125 1/3 total innings between the minors and majors this season, within range of the 129 1/3 he amassed between LSU and the minors in 2023. Many teams prefer to cap their pitching phenoms at a 30 inning boost, meaning 34 more available innings to spread across a probable seven more starts (projecting he pitches exactly every sixth day the rest of the year).
This tees Wednesday's start up as a dual "must" for all fantasy managers, first that you should start Skenes, who has remained excellent despite a recent blip (3.13 ERA, 25.4 K% since the All-Star break), but second, that it's imperative that you monitor how the Pirates manage his workload in that game for future matchups analysis
Everything else you need to know for Wednesday
- Justin Verlander will mark his return to the Houston Astros ' rotation, following a 72-day absence due to neck discomfort. He hasn't performed nearly to the level of his 2022 Cy Young season, his first following Tommy John surgery, in the two years since but had been reasonably productive for fantasy purposes before his IL placement in June. Despite a 21.3% K rate and 3.95 ERA, his worst in a season since 2014, his 105 fantasy points between his two IL stints tied for 40th among pure starting pitchers. Verlander's rehabilitation stint was promising enough as well, totaling seven innings allowing three runs (two earned) with eight strikeouts over two starts. He is, however, shaping up as more of a matchups than every-start type for our purposes, which is important considering he'll probably be capped in the 75 pitch range while facing a Boston Red Sox lineup that the projections grade one of the 10 toughest matchups. It's best to keep Verlander benched for evaluation tonight.
- The scorching-hot Arizona Diamondbacks , whose 6.29 runs per game in August are most in the majors, get another dream hitting matchup against the Miami Marlins and rookie right-hander Roddery Munoz . Munoz has a 6.67 ERA and has averaged 4.5 innings per start since the All-Star break, and he's backed by a trade- and injury-depleted bullpen with the majors' sixth-worst ERA in August (5.22). Despite the loss of Ketel Marte to the IL, the Diamondbacks have numerous fantasy options for this game, most notably Jake McCarthy , who should benefit from starts out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup against righties while Marte is sidelined. McCarthy, available in roughly two-thirds of ESPN leagues, has batted .373/.433/.627 with four homers and 19 RBIs in 17 games in August.
- Regardless of the identity of the Los Angeles Angels ' Wednesday starter, the opposing Kansas City Royals lineup should benefit from the rotation spot vacated when Jose Soriano landed on the injured list. Johnny Cueto , a Royal himself during the team's 2015 championship season, is likely to get the nod, which tilts thing significantly in the home team's favor considering Cueto has a 4.26 ERA and 18.0% strikeout rate in the majors since the beginning of 2020, with a similar level of performance in the minors this year (4.76 ERA, 17.9 K%). This is a good opportunity to scoop up widely available free agents like MJ Melendez or Dairon Blanco for the spot start.
- Zach Eflin has pitched excellently since joining the Baltimore Orioles via trade on July 26, going 4-for-4 in quality starts while averaging 17.8 fantasy points. Wednesday's road assignment against the New York Mets will represent his toughest matchup since his July 19 loss at Yankee Stadium, when he scored minus-1 points, but the Mets are only an above-average offense and are one of the better offenses for pitcher strikeouts. Eflin's hot streak should earn him a spot in every lineup, and bear in mind that he's available in roughly 15% of ESPN leagues.
Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart , which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
- Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 17%) at Roddery Munoz
- Michael Massey (KC, 2B -- 2%) vs. Johnny Cueto
- Taylor Ward (LAA, LF -- 40%) at Michael Lorenzen
- MJ Melendez (KC, RF -- 5%) vs. Cueto
- Zach Neto (LAA, SS -- 24%) at Lorenzen
- Jake McCarthy (ARI, RF -- 30%) at Munoz
- Jake Burger (MIA, 3B -- 45%) vs. Jordan Montgomery
- Logan O'Hoppe (LAA, C -- 41%) at Lorenzen
- Anthony Rendon (LAA, 3B -- 1%) at Lorenzen
- Xavier Edwards (MIA, 2B -- 50%) vs. Montgomery
Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday
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