Matchup rankings: Stafford, Kupp, Nabers poised for success in Week 2

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

Let's get the bad-news response out of the way first: Week 1 is the toughest week as far as evaluating matchups. It's commonplace for fantasy analysis to rely heavily upon the previous year's statistics, even though that completely ignores how quickly and dramatically this game changes, especially over a seven-month offseason.

The matchup ranks below provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

For the first three weeks, these rankings are entirely my opinion of how favorable or unfavorable I consider that matchup, though 2023 full-season data is provided to give you another snapshot into the strength of that particular matchup.

"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings .

All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Matthew Stafford , Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals ) . The Cardinals' pass defense is a mess, best evidenced by the ease with which Josh Allen orchestrated the Buffalo Bills ' second-half comeback in Week 1. No defense had a worse pass rush win rate than the Cardinals' opening-week 11.8%, and their thin cornerback corps -- their best is probably Sean Murphy-Bunting , who graded below average in coverage in 2023 -- should elevate the matchups for Stafford's receivers, who could stand a boost with Puka Nacua (knee) sidelined. Specifically, Cooper Kupp should be a go-to target for Stafford, a borderline QB1 considering the matchup. Kupp typically lines up in the slot, and the Cardinals afforded 85 yards and two touchdowns to Bills slot receivers in Week 1.

Others to like: Justin Fields , Pittsburgh Steelers (at Denver Broncos ); Jared Goff , Detroit Lions (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ).

Matchup to avoid: C.J. Stroud , Houston Texans (vs. Chicago Bears ) . Week 2 is lacking in elite fantasy names at this position facing dreadful matchups, with the next-closest candidate being Dak Prescott , though Prescott's matchup against the New Orleans Saints would become significantly softer if cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) is unable to play. Stroud, however, faces a fully healthy and underrated Bears secondary that limited the Tennessee Titans to 104 yards and one touchdown passing in Week 1. Yes, Stroud is a significantly more-skilled quarterback than the Titans' Will Levis , but the Bears' 71.0% pass rush win rate in that game was the league's best, and Stroud hasn't put up eye-popping numbers when under pressure (five of his 25 career touchdowns and a 44th percentile QBR).

Running backs

Matchups highlight: Najee Harris , Steelers (at Broncos) . He had a significant role in the Steelers' opening-week victory in Atlanta, playing 58% of the team's offensive snaps while absorbing 20 of the 26 rushing attempts dished out to running backs. Sure, Jaylen Warren could see a larger role in Week 2, being another week removed from his preseason hamstring injury, but this is another game in which the Steelers should largely control the clock. They're favored by 2.5 points on the road and dish out a similarly sizable rushing load. The Broncos surrendered 31.0 PPR fantasy points to the Seattle Seahawks ' running backs last week, fifth most at the position, and Kenneth Walker III had three carries that went for 10-plus yards.

Others to like: Josh Jacobs , Green Bay Packers (vs. Indianapolis Colts ); Brian Robinson Jr ., Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants ).

Matchup to avoid: Rachaad White , Buccaneers (at Lions) . The Lions, who held opposing running backs to the fewest PPR fantasy points last season (266.4), had a similarly strong opening-week performance against the Rams and 2023 breakout Kyren Williams (14.4 points). Williams only once exceeded 10 yards rushing on one play and three times was stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. White, meanwhile, continued his 2023 trend of delivering disappointing metrics, his minus-2.2 average yards over expectation per rushing attempt was worst among 48 positional qualifiers.

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: Malik Nabers , Giants (at Commanders) . On a per-play basis, no team had a worse Week 1 against wide receivers than the Commanders, who surrendered 3.3 PPR fantasy points per target to the position. That was fueled by four touchdowns, two by Mike Evans and one apiece by Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan . Cornerback Benjamin St-Juste , who typically covers perimeter receivers (of which Nabers is one), surrendered two of those scores as the nearest defender. Nabers might've taken a back seat to Wan'Dale Robinson in terms of targets (12 to 7) in Week 1, but Nabers still figures to be the team's leader in the category most weeks. Expect a big game from the rookie and a moderate bounce back by quarterback Daniel Jones .

Others to like: Terry McLaurin , Commanders (vs. Giants); Demarcus Robinson , Rams (at Cardinals).

Matchup to avoid: Courtland Sutton , Broncos (vs. Steelers) . His Week 1 usage was bona fide WR1 caliber, as he played 91% of the offensive snaps, ran 42 routes and had 12 targets, all of those easily team bests. Sutton's fantasy production was nevertheless held back by the struggles of his rookie quarterback, Bo Nix , as Sutton scored only 7.8 PPR fantasy points. Both appear likely to struggle against the Steelers' secondary, but for Sutton, he's specifically in a tough spot due to what should be a hefty amount of facing cornerback Joey Porter Jr . in coverage. Porter lined up across from Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London on 15 snaps in Week 1 and afforded London only a 7-yard catch.

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: Trey McBride , Cardinals (vs. Rams) . Week 1 was a quiet one for tight ends -- at least those not named Isaiah Likely -- but McBride's usage continued to signal a potentially top-three-at-the-position season upcoming. McBride played 85% of the snaps, ran 31 routes (third behind only Marvin Harrison Jr .'s 33 and Michael Wilson 's 32) and saw a team-high nine targets. That's good news for what is an extremely favorable matchup for tight ends against a Rams team that last season struggled mightily against those who ran a good share of their routes out of the slot, as McBride does. Dallas Goedert (25.7 PPR fantasy points), Likely (19.3), Juwan Johnson (14.8) and McBride (13.0) were four such examples from 2023.

Matchup to avoid: Evan Engram , Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns ). No defense was tougher against tight ends last season than the Browns (155.9 PPR fantasy points allowed), who were at it again in Week 1, limiting Jake Ferguson to only 4.5 PPR fantasy points on five targets before his third-quarter exit due to injury. Engram, who was scarcely used in the passing game last week (four targets for 1.5 points), should see a larger role in this game, but he's unlikely to put forth the kind of numbers on a per-play basis that'll make him a slam-dunk start.