Observations from the NBL Blitz: King's breakout; Early alarm bells for who?

And, just like that, another NBL Blitz is in the books.

We saw all 10 NBL teams in action -- some looking more promising than others -- with the Brisbane Bullets ultimately walking away with the Loggins-Bruton Cup as the champions of the event.

Of course, the outcomes don't mean as much as the indicators we picked up along the way, and there were many. From the Sydney King who looks primed to skyrocket up draft boards, what to make of the 36ers pulling off a high-profile signing, and other whispers around the traps, there's never a dull moment on the Gold Coast when the Blitz is in town.

Here are 11 observations from the NBL's annual preseason showcase.

A breakout tournament for a King

There's no player who helped his draft stock more than Alex Toohey.

To say Toohey stole the show at the Blitz, while also completely shifting the perception of his NBA prospects -- with dozens of scouts and executives in the building -- is an understatement.

Toohey sat out the Kings' first game with an ankle injury, but was good to go for the team's final two matchups; he was empowered by his coaching staff over the course of the week, and the 20-year-old made the most of it. In his first outing, against the South East Melbourne Phoenix, Toohey dropped a game-high 26 points -- shooting 8-of-11 from the field, including 4-of-4 from downtown. He followed that up with 24 points and three assists in a win over the New Zealand Breakers, shooting 7-of-14 from the field, 2-of-4 from beyond the three-point line, and 8-of-9 from the free throw line; his Blitz showing amplified by an emphatic poster dunk in that second game.

The week for Toohey was informative on many levels. There was value in the heap of scouts and executives in the building, including Brooklyn Nets GM Sean Marks, to see his size in person; Toohey added 6 kg (13 lbs) over the off-season, he told ESPN, and showed off his length over his two games. The other important development was what appears to be a shooting leap for Toohey this coming season. The majority of the NBA scouts in the building cited Toohey's shooting as his swing skill, so going 6-of-8 from three-point range -- emerging as a real catch-and-shoot threat -- while also looking very comfortable at the free throw line, is a notable indicator.

The thing NBA personnel seemed most encouraged by over the week, though, is a microcosm of all of those things: it's the clear signs of development Toohey fostered over his off-season. The ability to have such stark improvement between your first and second pro season is an indicator of a prospect's potential, as well as his work ethic, so that sentiment got quite a loud tick of approval from around the gym.

Toohey was No. 57 on ESPN's mock for the 2025 NBA Draft in late June and, after this Blitz, a rise of some sort seems like a real possibility.

We're tracking for another Gold Coast Blitz

Get ready for another NBL Blitz on the Gold Coast... probably.

The early word is that the Gold Coast is, once again, the favourite to host the Blitz when the preseason tournament rolls around in 2025.

NBA personnel continue to approve of the location -- though, practically every stakeholder (scouts, players, team staff, etc) lamented the fact that games weren't at the Gold Coast Convention Centre -- and players largely enjoy the fact that, if there's going to be a preseason event that lasts as long as the Blitz does, it's in a place with a very palatable climate.

The NBL was hoping to be in a position to announce an expansion team in the Gold Coast during this Blitz, but didn't secure the requisite financial commitment from the government to go ahead with it. At the time, there was hope for a Gold Coast franchise to enter the NBL ahead of the 2025-26 season; that's now been pushed back a year, and it'll still be a battle, of sorts, to make sure that gets over the line. Until then, the league's preseason tournament being in the Gold Coast will have to suffice.

For better or worse, Adelaide isn't resting on any laurels

ESPN's initial reporting of the Adelaide 36ers' signing of Montrezl Harrell reverberated across the lobby of the hotel where all teams were staying.

There had been word that the team was looking to sign an injury replacement for Jarell Martin, but there was zero indication they'd end up with someone of Harrell's calibre.

It's a fascinating signing. Harrell immediately becomes one of the most credentialed players to ever join an NBL team and, at 30, is theoretically still in his prime. What makes it so intriguing is that it comes with some question marks. What does Harrell look like roughly 13 months after surgery to repair an ACL and meniscus tear? Will he slot in right next to Isaac Humphries, and how will his non-shooting impact arguably the best big-man in the NBL? Harrell's talent and competitiveness over his career is undeniable, but is the fit right? Will he just go back to his sixth man role when Martin gets healthy? We'll find all of these things out soon enough.

Throw in Harrell's famously intense demeanour and a pair of high-volume guards, and there's no guarantee it works. What can't be questioned, though, is the 36ers' propensity these days to absolutely go for it and be creative.

New GM of Basketball, Matt Weston, immediately entered the team and made it in his vision, with no care for the criticisms of a notoriously passionate and reactive fanbase. It began with signing a young point guard out of the NBA G-League in Kendric Davis, who had never left the United States -- he didn't own a passport -- and no experience in the FIBA game. Davis is a supremely talented offensive player, but it's a gamble, not knowing if his game can help facilitate wins at the NBL level. We'll see if it does. Still, it was a process Weston put significant time into, with the hope that Davis' game translates. The firing of head coach Scott Ninnis was always going to be received poorly, but it ultimately came down to a lack of trust in his capacity, along with an admiration for what Mike Wells brings to the table.

All of these decisions are bold -- some unpopular and slightly against the grain, too -- and may end up being the wrong ones, but there are legitimate basketball reasons for them and the team is being proactive about pulling the trigger.

Sky's the limit for Sydney who have a very real roster crunch to sort out

There was a moment in the Sydney Kings' first game of the Blitz where some were puzzled the team didn't put their bench on for garbage time. Only, they did; it just so happens that their bench is very talented.

Thus is the extent of the depth on this Kings team.

Their final game of the tournament was what ended up as a relatively comfortable win over the New Zealand Breakers. The context is important, though; none of Xavier Cooks, Jaylen Adams, Bul Kuol, Izayah Le'Afa, and Kouat Noi suited up for that game. The far-reaching talent on Brian Goorjian's team is immense, and will make for some fascinating moving and shaking from a rotation perspective. We've discussed the positional versatility being the true strength of this group, but there's 240 total minutes to be handed out and unfortunately not everyone will be satisfied.

The emergence of Toohey into what's looking like a high-level NBL starter makes things even more difficult from the perspective of getting adequate minutes into deserving players. Still, there's expected to be an understanding that, in effect, everyone's minutes will be slightly below what they should be for the betterment of the group.

Where that depth will truly be felt is when the Kings have two games in a round -- Round 2 will be a good example: in Perth on Friday evening, before facing the Hawks at home on Sunday afternoon -- so we may see a wider spread of those minutes to keep players as fresh as possible.

Right now, Sydney is looking like a dynamic and versatile defensive team, with a high-powered offence; they had an offensive rating of 120 points per 100 possessions over three games at the Blitz. The offence looks in more of a rhythm than the other end of the floor at this moment, but there's an overwhelming expectation that the defensive end will be what really stands out as the identity of Goorjian's group. The Kings did drop a game in the middle of the Blitz, but all of the indicators continue to point to this team entering the regular season as one of the favourites to contend for the title.

Some whispers

Here's some of the word around town; basically, things to keep an eye on as the regular season gets set to begin.

The first is on the New Zealand Breakers' import, Matt Mooney, who only signed a short-term contract with the team, sources told ESPN. The Breakers left the door open to perhaps find a high-level import during their NBA preseason games -- like they did with Anthony Lamb last year -- so didn't guarantee the entirety of Mooney's contract. A probationary period used to be quite common for first-year NBL imports, so this circumstance isn't completely out of the ordinary. What makes it interesting to track is that Mooney was really effective over the course of the Blitz, so there's good reason to stay with him for the remainder of the season.

Let's move over to Adelaide, where the status of Jarell Martin was one of the big talking points over the course of the Blitz. The big-man suffered a set-back in his recovery from a patellar tendon rupture, developing a 'hot spot' in his foot, a team spokesperson told ESPN. While the initial injury is no longer a concern, the foot complaint is the thing that's keeping him off the floor; likely for, conservatively, six-to-eight weeks, sources said.

Now, with effectively all NBL decision-makers on the Gold Coast, the Blitz provided an opportunity for Roman Siulepa -- a prospective Next Star who recently agreed to a mutual release with the JackJumpers -- to conduct meetings with other teams. Siulepa and his management met with the Illawarra Hawks, Adelaide 36ers, and Cairns Taipans, sources said, while multiple NBA and NBL teams sent representatives had the opportunity to watch the athletic wing play in some junior games during the week.

The 36ers feel like the team to keep a particularly close eye on in the Siulepa sweepstakes; the 18-year-old has an existing relationship with Jason Cadee, while the organisation privately feels that they have the resources to help the young Australian reach his potential.

A leap from Lachlan Olbrich + the other prospects on show

Another draft-eligible prospect who NBA teams were impressed by over the week was the Illawarra Hawks' Lachlan Olbrich, who put together an unbelievably efficient Blitz.

The 6'10 forward averaged 15.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game over the tournament, while shooting 19-of-21 (90.5%) from the field, including 2-of-4 from downtown. That's not a typo: Olbrich didn't miss a two-point field goal at the Blitz.

NBA scouts still aren't entirely sure what Olbrich is at the next level. He's effectively a hyper-mobile big who can finish around the paint with his elite touch, put the ball on the floor, and has shown glimpses of being a respectable three-point shooter. Who he guards in the NBA is uncertain, and the jump-shot will be the swing skill for him, but what's not in question among those in attendance is that he's a high-level basketball player, and is primed for a heap more opportunity with the Hawks this season.

When quizzing the NBA personnel in the building, there was also a lot of love for the South East Melbourne Phoenix's Next Star, Malique Lewis. At 6'8, Lewis already fits that mould of the prototypical NBA wing, so it's just about consistently demonstrating that complementary off-ball skillset. The athleticism and rebounding was on show, as well as the defensive versatility and ability to finish through contact at the rim. Like seemingly all of the draft-eligible forwards, the shooting will be the primary determinant of Lewis' draft outcome.

The Perth Wildcats' Ben Henshall has shown some development from year one to year two, and his performance at the Blitz did manage to draw some intrigue. A 10-point performance off the bench in his first game was followed up with an 18-point, 10-rebound showing where he was also 4-of-8 from downtown. There's still a heap more development in his future, but Henshall has clearly taken a positive step forward from a physical standpoint -- that bolsters his capacity on the defensive end, which kept him off the floor last season -- as well as how deliberate he is when he gets to his spots on offence. One NBA scout commented, in passing, that Henshall may end up as the best player of all the young prospects on show; and, while bold, a 6'5 combo guard who can really shoot it and has a high-level offensive feel is the idea of one hell of a player.

The unfortunate thing is that the player NBA scouts and executives were most excited to get their eyes on was hampered by injury for much of the Blitz. Rocco Zikarsky has an immeasurable amount of intrigue from NBA teams because of his 7'3 frame, and he opened the Blitz with a bang, dropping eight points, three rebounds, and two blocks off the bench against the Tasmania JackJumpers. Unfortunately, an ankle injury meant he was largely sidelined in the practices NBA scouts went to watch, and didn't suit up for the Bullets' second game. The 18-year-old big-man did play in the Bullets' final game, but was a non-factor in that matchup. The value in having a good Blitz is that a prospect can make the most of that moment in time on the scouting calendar -- it's an extremely popular event for NBA personnel -- so this is a missed opportunity for Zikarsky; still, he'll have ample opportunity to show his worth once the regular season begins.

Tyrell Harrison tracking for a career year

It's been brewing since the start of the preseason, but it's become quite clear that Bullets big-man Tyrell Harrison is primed for a pretty substantial season.

The early portion of the 25-year-old's young career was hampered by injuries, but he put together a healthy, and effective, season over his 2023-24 campaign. That's seemingly set the stage for a leap.

What we've seen going into the 2024-25 NBL season is the healthiest, most in-shape version of Harrison, who projects as one of the league's most imposing post threats and an anchor for the Bullets on both ends. As it stands, he's the Bullets' best and most effective player, and, if he remains healthy, has the potential for a substantial uptick in production.

He walked away from the Blitz as the winner of the Ray Borner Trophy -- given to the MVP of the tournament -- and will be one of the most intriguing players to watch this season because it's a contract year for the centre. Teams around the league are keeping an eye on Harrison's impending free agency, while the Bullets are hoping that never eventuates; they're currently engaged in extension talks with the big-man, sources said.

There's a lot to like about Rob Edwards and Tanner Groves

At least two of the Cairns Taipans' imports are projecting as really effective NBL players, and the other showed some flashes.

The first is Rob Edwards, who already looks frighteningly comfortable on an NBL floor. The 6'5 guard can score at all three levels, has done an elite job thus far finding his shots in the midrange, and plays with a physicality that makes him a handful to contain. The shot-making and strength are the two things that have stood out thus far, and he projects as an ideal fit next to the playmaking of Taran Armstrong and the type of spacing the Taipans should be able to play with at all times. He had some trouble with fouls in the Taipans' final game of the Blitz, and Adam Forde probably doesn't want to give him bulk minutes at the point, but Edwards is already projecting as an All-NBL level talent.

The other Taipans import that's impressed in the preseason is Tanner Groves. There were questions around the league about whether Groves' playstyle would translate to the NBL, and whether he's at the level. Those queries have been largely quashed, because the early returns have been extremely encouraging. Groves brings a motor and what he told ESPN was some "sneaky athleticism", along with his ability to use his touch inside the paint and hit the three-ball outside of it. We saw some playmaking glimpses from Groves, too, and the big-man is projecting as a double-double threat every time he hits the floor.

As for the Taipans' third import, Pedro Bradshaw, there were some ups and downs, but some of that can be put down to a lot being asked of him in Armstrong's absence. There's a three-and-D skillset Forde will want to tap into, while leaving some of that volatile self-creation at the door. It's definitely worth seeing more from Bradshaw before making a judgment on just how effective he can be in the NBL, but, at the very least, it's looking like the Taipans have upgraded from an import perspective -- especially when putting consideration into team balance -- which significantly lifts their ceiling going into the season.

We know some floors... but what will determine the ceilings?

Teams around the league think this coming season will, at least, have nine teams capable of legitimately competing for a play-in spot.

That's because there's some trust in the floor of the teams that aren't widely projected as being in the top half of the ladder; the two most intriguing of that bunch: the Brisbane Bullets and Cairns Taipans.

Let's take the Bullets as an example. They won the Blitz -- which has historically not really been an indicator of regular season success -- after a jam-packed preseason schedule, and do have an impressive local cohort to lean on, like they did in 2023-24. There's still a lot of unknowns with their imports, though. James Batemon has shown flashes, but the jury is still out on whether he's an All-NBL level talent. Keandre Cook finally found his shooting form in the Bullets' final game of the Blitz, but can he do it consistently? If both hit the higher end of their ceiling -- on top of the reliability of their Australian and Kiwi contingent -- then the Bullets will be a legitimate contender. If not, they'll be grinding for one of those play-in positions.

For the Taipans, there's trust that a more balanced import trio makes the Taipans more reliable, and this has the look of one of those Adam Forde teams that will just have that knack for staying in games. Where real success will come for the Taipans is once we determine how significant Armstrong's leap is -- he's being given the keys -- and if Sam Waardenburg can rebound from a below-par season to provide consistent production.

The 36ers are also a team whose ceiling will likely be determined by the play, and fit, of their imports, while the South East Melbourne Phoenix may be the execution of a defensive identity away from being a legitimate title contender.

Early alarm bells for the Breakers

The indicators for the New Zealand Breakers have been less-than-ideal to start the Petteri Koponen era.

The team has played five preseason games -- one behind closed doors -- and lost them all, while an injury to Parker Jackson-Cartwright in their second game of the Blitz put somewhat of a pause on the progress the team was making.

The reasons to tamper expectations, at least early on, are plentiful. The Breakers already didn't have the most talented team on paper, before Freddie Gillespie -- who was starting to finally find his footing in the NBL -- got suspended for a headbutt. Koponen is a rookie head coach, at the helm of a team he largely didn't build, about to go and play preseason games against NBA teams instead of continuing to drill his group in a FIBA environment.

If all of the imports hit, then there's reason to believe a local contingent that includes Jonah Bolden, a revitalised Mitch McCarron, a revamped Mojave King, and Sam Mennenga, among others, can make them consistently competitive from game to game. What's concerning is that the Breakers still have so much growth to embark on, as they get set to begin a pretty gruelling schedule.

Is Melbourne being slept on?

There was an interesting sentiment around the Gold Coast this week: it was a general lack of belief in Melbourne United.

The reasoning was a mixture of a things. There's a feeling that they've downgraded in talent; of course, losing Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. and Luke Travers is significant. The sentiment of father time approaching the likes of Chris Goulding and Matthew Dellavedova was also cited.

What may be overlooked is what United is expecting to be a career season from Shea Ili, after the point guard was hampered by a shoulder injury over the majority of his 2023-24 campaign. There's also perhaps a misunderstanding of where Jack White is in his development compared to Travers, and that a more experienced, refined forward should make for more production and two-way impact from that position.

When building this roster, Dean Vickerman and the decision-makers within the franchise opted for balance, as opposed to just talent, which meant signing complementary players at the five-spot, re-signing the two-way perimeter threat that is Ian Clark, and bringing White back into the fold.

At the very least, United should be one of the best defensive teams in the NBL -- it'd be a major surprise if they're not consistently in the top-three in defensive rating -- and we know that excelling on that end of the floor is a reliable barometer for a team's overall success. They are, without question, a contender from day one.