Inside Arnold's Socceroos exit, and the arrival of Popović

There's a lot of clarity in hindsight, especially surrounding Graham Arnold's exit from the Socceroos and the arrival of Tony Popovic.

There's plenty, for instance, around Arnold's last public comments before he left the role earlier this month, uttered after his side had been held to a 0-0 draw with Indonesia in Jakarta. He hadn't even wanted to do the press conference initially and he ended up just facing two questions alongside an opening statement to get it over and done with as quickly as possible. It was during these that he remarked: "I've got to go home and do a lot of thinking."

It is easy to recognise now that they were the words of a tired coach, one whose race was run and who, in the weeks ahead, would tender his resignation and end effectively four decades of alignment, be it as a player or as a coach, with the Socceroos.

But the prevailing thought at the time was that his comments augured a period of reflection, rather than separation, especially at the end of a difficult and frustrating window. The Socceroos had been defeated 1-0 by Bahrain on the Gold Coast before heading to Java and held by a Tim Garuda unit that, though rising in Asia and backed by a vocal crowd in steamy conditions, shouldn't have been beyond them. Adding to the whole series-of-unfortunate-events vibe, the day before the Indonesia game the team had been forced to hastily relocate their final training session from the stadium due to concerns surrounding the state of the surface amidst a heavy downpour -- Arnold shaking his head with angry incredulity as he made his way onto one of the training pitches surrounding Gelora Bung Karno. It hadn't exactly been an international window to soothe a tempestuous spirit.

Two years into a four-year contract extension and just a pair of games into the third phase of Asian qualifiers for the 2026 FIFA World Cup , with matches against China and Japan in only a month, the prospect of him stepping away had seemed remote. Not only did it seem out of character for a coach that has almost revelled in being doubted but it didn't feel like the right time. If change was to come -- be it instigated by Arnold or by Football Australia -- after the November international window, when the Socceroos would have played every side in their group at least once and there wasn't another qualifier until March 2025, felt a more natural inflection point.

That's what made the news of Arnold's decision to step down as coach of the Socceroos so shocking. While there had been plenty of criticism of the coach following the window, calls for his ousting continued to be restricted to social media. Such was the sudden nature of the announcement, friends and colleagues even began to reach out to make sure Arnold was ok, worried that his departure had something to do with his health. Thankfully, that wasn't the case and, aside from the battering his vocal cords have taken over a near-thirty-year coaching career, he's probably healthier than most 61-year-old Australian men.

As it turns out, Arnold had already been doing plenty of thinking before he ever landed in the Indonesian capital. In the hours following his resignation, Arnold revealed that he had been battling to maintain enthusiasm and drive ever since January's Asian Cup in Qatar, where the Socceroos were eliminated in the quarterfinals by South Korea 's "zombie football." At the time, the coach said his side's efforts were "a huge pass" and that with 14 players having played in their first major tournament in Doha, he'd hit his goal of keeping "one eye on the Asian Cup and two eyes on the World Cup."

But nine months on and with little cause for pretence, the framing was different. Not backtracking, per se, but an acknowledgement that it hadn't met his expectations.

"I've got to be honest, and I always am, I have struggled a little bit since the Asian Cup loss," Arnold said. "I truly went to that Asian Cup thinking that we were going to win it. Probably over the last six months, I've tried to convince myself to keep going, to keep going, to keep going. And as I said, in my gut, this just hasn't felt right."

While some figures that have spoken to ESPN suggest that change may have been on the cards after future windows had there not been a turnaround -- and that there could have been cognisance of this on Arnold's part -- this wasn't a sacking dressed as a resignation.

Football Australia chief executive James Johnson had vociferously backed the coach to turn things around the week prior, what we now know to be just days before he informed the federation of his decision to stand down. And while public backing from one's superiors can often mask a swinging axe, that Football Australia, which has not sacked a single national team coach -- senior or junior international -- since the arrival of Johnson, would suddenly shift from being such a passive force to possessing the ruthlessness to make a change less than a month out from a crucial qualifier in Japan is fanciful.

"I was surprised, as everyone else was," Steve Corica, one of Arnold's long-time collaborators and successor as Sydney FC coach, told ESPN. "I only texted Arnie after he left and he seems happy with what he's doing. I'm sure he'll move on and go somewhere else."

In an interview on Fox Sports program The Back Page , Arnold would reveal a conversation with long-time friend Wayne Bennett in the immediate aftermath of the loss to Bahrain. That defeat was just the second time that Australia had lost a "live" home World Cup qualifier since 1981 -- the other occasion coming in a 2022 defeat to Japan in Sydney, also under Arnold -- and it seems his conversation with the NRL coaching doyen was a Rubicon moment for Arnold.

"I've got a great relationship with Wayne and I always have," Arnold said . "I spoke to him straight after the Bahrain game, because I've been feeling this way not just for one game, I've been feeling this way for a number of months."

Arnold departed the Socceroos as one of its most successful leaders. His 72 internationals coached across two stints were more than others in the history of the side, as were his 43 wins. His 64.91% winning percentage was the third-best in the team's history and was achieved whilst simultaneously giving debuts to 48 new players, with the likes of Harry Souttar , Riley McGree , Jordan Bos , Alessandro Circati , Connor Metcalfe , and Nestory Irankunda all breaking through under his watch. Wins over Tunisia and Denmark at the 2022 World Cup enshrined him as the only coach to ever guide Australia's men to two wins (and clean sheets) at the footballing showcase and, in time, the scenes from Doha and back home will likely come to define a favourable legacy.

"Gave us all memories of a lifetime and created history together. Thanks for everything Boss," Souttar wrote on his Instagram following Arnold's exit.

Coming back to hindsight, though, a consensus has emerged -- both publicly and among those ESPN spoke to -- that the highs of the run to the knockouts of that tournament would have represented the optimal time for Arnold to part ways with the national team; becoming a free agent when his stock was at its highest and before the day-to-day grind of Asian football saw the same problems that had almost sunk them on the road to Qatar resurfaced. If not then, following the Asian Cup, where these challenges had been on show, but it was still the likes of Son Heung-Min , Lee Kang-In and Hwang Hee-Chan knocking Arnold's side out of the tournament.

Instead, the foibles that had dogged the team throughout Arnold's tenure -- well known by Football Australia at the time of his multi-million-dollar contract extension -- were on show during the clashes with Bahrain and Indonesia. And six years into his time as coach, it wasn't clear just where the impetus for improvements could be found. He wasn't going to get any extra time with the squad -- the limited contact hours that come with working in international football were frequently raised by Arnold as the tide turned -- and any new talent that could be plugged in still had to operate within the coach's existing, reactive philosophy.

In the past, Arnold had blasted through, and the team had found a way. When the loss to Japan provided a nadir, there was a shootout win over Peru that followed. After the World Cup hammering by France , there were wins over Tunisia and Denmark. Before the game with Indonesia, Souttar told ESPN that this ability to respond was one of the defining features of the side under Arnold.

This time, however, the Socceroos could only conjure up a draw after that chastening defeat to Bahrain. Six years is an age in the international realm, and it appeared the players weren't responding the same way that they once had. Arnold wasn't responding the way he once had, either, bemoaning that he couldn't put the ball in the back of the net those on the pitch, a stark shift from a coach who had deliberately made himself a lightning rod in years past.

"Obviously, after the two games against Bahrain in Indonesia, and I said after the Indonesia game, that I had some big decisions to make," Arnold said. "I followed my gut, and have gone with the decision that, after 40 years' service and six years at the helm of coaching the Socceroos, it's time for change and time for me to move on.

"And it's been a tough decision, but once again, it's a gut decision -- something that I've always followed -- and I believe it's the right one."

The day after Arnold's exit was announced, Johnson made it clear that the federation would not be appointing an interim as they searched for his replacement. Whereas time and a caretaker were a luxury afforded in the search for a new Matildas coach -- their next competitive fixture is not until the first game of the 2026 Women's Asian Cup -- it didn't exist here. With games against Japan and Saudi Arabia to come in the next two months and a clash with China just 20 days away, the fate of the Socceroos' hopes for automatic qualification for 2026 during this phase could rest on the next couple of windows, forcing their hand.

Johnson said Football Australia were ready to act quickly, that they were familiar with the market and knew what they were looking for. We now know that the federation had already begun the search for a new coach at that point, with Arnold having informed them of their decision earlier in the week. That very day, a report emerged from the Sydney Morning Herald revealing that Shanghai Port manager Kevin Muscat -- performing wondrously well in the Chinese Super League -- had ruled himself out of contention, shifting the focus of speculation to the likes of Popovic, John Aloisi, Peter Cklamovski, and Nick Montgomery. Former Saudi Arabia men's and France women's coach Hervé Renard was also floated, and the Sydney Morning Herald would report that Carlos Queiroz also made enquiries about the role, but the federation was already locked in on replacing Arnold with another Australian. Aloisi, for his part, was not contacted by Football Australia.

"If you want peace, prepare for war," Johnson remarked at the time. Given Popovic's rapid arrival, Johnson's paraphrasing of the Latin maxim would indicate that the former Melbourne Victory boss had been long identified as one of the leading candidates for the Socceroos role -- even if Johnson maintained at Popovic's unveiling that the first formal conversation had taken place after Arnold's resignation.

It's easy to see why Football Australia felt comfortable with Popovic, too, given he met several of the criteria listed by the executive -- familiar with Asia, familiar with the players, was available, and wouldn't rock the boat to change things up too much. And if Arnold had indeed been struggling since the Asian Cup, it would have been negligent of the federation, even if it didn't want their incumbent to depart, to not have the foundations laid to move quickly should he exit. A News Corp report suggested that there had been some level of interest in Popovic since June when he became a free agent after leaving Victory -- reports of a fallout between him and Victory director of football John Didulica came as news to them both -- which would track with this.

Of course, when Arnold was asked on Fox Sports if he was surprised that Football Australia had moved as quickly as they did to replace him his response did leave room for some level of intrigue, remarking: "I'm here to do The Back Page, I don't want to end up on the front page."

Not that he had much of a choice, given how soon his first game in charge will be, but Popovic has got to work quickly on making this Socceroos outfit his own. On Friday, Football Australia confirmed that there would be an almost complete shuffle of the staff beneath the new coach, with assistants René Meulensteen and Luke Wilkshire, goalkeeping coach John Crawley, head of sports science Fabian Ehrmann, senior technical analyst Adam Barbera and advisor Michael Zappone to no longer be involved with the senior men's program. Some will find other roles within the organisation, with talks underway around what that may look like, but others -- such as Meulensteen -- will depart entirely.

With the announcements on who Popovic will add to his staff expected to come imminently, the same week he hands down his first squad as the national team coach, the rumour mill has linked figures that have a history with the coach, be it in the A-League Men or in his brief forays in Turkey and Greece. However, with access to the budget of Football Australia, as opposed to the austerity-driven treasuries of recent domestic campaigns, the chance to dip into the international market and bring in fresh eyes -- as Arnold did with Meulensteen -- also exists for the new coach. Further, the tone the 58-time international struck in his opening press conference, where he emphasised the honour and the privilege he felt wearing the shirt and that nobody was entitled to it -- which has been interpreted as a shot across the bow of members of the current squad that may have become accustomed to the Arnold administration -- has led to speculation he will look to infuse his squad with as many former Socceroos as possible, with names such as Hayden Foxe, Željko Kalac, Paul Okon, and even Harry Kewell fitting that profile.

"You don't realize how special playing for the Socceroos is until it's gone," said Patrick Kisnorbo, an 18-time Socceroo and now Popovic's replacement as coach of Victory. "And now [Popovic is] the head coach, now he can maybe restore that feeling that as players that we felt. I'm not saying they never did but he was obviously a leader in that camp. He's been around in a long time, so the things that he wants to implement can only be a positive for our game."

What is also certain is that there will be a shift in the vibe when the Socceroos next come into camp.

Arnold maintained a strong focus on a "Socceroos family" during his time in charge, creating an atmosphere where the mood was relaxed and player-led, and in which he maintained a sense of loyalty to players that he trusted and was connected with. In his farewell on the Socceroos website, he would say: "I'm their father. They're my sons."

That's not to say that Popovic won't care for his players. And few things matter more to Popovic than family. But his methods and his approach will differ. The coach is known for a more austere approach to management, where if players are failing to meet expectations, he won't hesitate to move on. He demands professionalism and a steadfast commitment to excellence and given that he holds himself to these standards too, expects it to be reflected by those surrounding him, both internally and externally. He might not always come across as jovial or bubbly but if you do your job with professionalism and a desire to improve he recognises that and gives you the respect he believes it deserves. He has little patience for those he deems to not meet those standards and places more emphasis on what you have done against what you might do.

"I can't handle poor training attitude because that leads to bad performances," Popovic said in a team talk in his first year at Victory, captured in the club's Dream Big documentary. "You can train s---, I can accept that, and me and the staff will work hard to help you get better. I can accept that every day of the year.

"When I see in someone's eyes that they want to get better every day, I'll do anything for you. Anything. On the park, off the park, for your family, whatever your kids need, I'll f------ do it.

"But give me the wrong attitude, and you're gone for me."

"Five years ago, I wasn't ready for this role. Three years ago, or two years ago, I wouldn't have looked at this role," Popovic remarked during his introduction.

That's notable both because it seemingly indicates that the coach is cognisant of the challenges that come with switching from club football to the international realm and is prepared to face them, but also because it wasn't five years ago that he was first linked to this role. Instead, it was 11, as back in 2013, when in the aftermath of Football Federation Australia sacking Holger Osieck he was one of three reported finalists for the role, alongside Ange Postecoglou and Graham Arnold.

If one was being charitable, one could call it a remarkable bit of talent evaluation that the federation was able to identify the next three Australian coaches across more than a decade. If one was being less charitable, it could speak to the levels of comfort that the federation, despite the changes in personnel over the years, has with the familiar. And this has been one of the early questions surrounding Popovic's arrival. If the time was right for a refresh -- as Johnson himself called it -- said, just how much of a departure will the new coach offer?

For while Popovic may have more in common with Postecoglou on man-management, he's generally perceived to share more similarities with Arnold's on-pitch product.

Both have overseen teams that have scored plenty but their best achievements as coaches -- the World Cup for Arnold, the Asian Champions League for Popovic -- have come when their sides served as the reactive side in possession, rather than figuring out a way through packed defences.

During his time at Victory, Popovic's standards helped rejuvenate a stagnating football department but also drew the ire of an expectant fanbase for the moribund attack his side would display in games, especially when confronted with the type of low blocks he will now face in Asia. Despite the 10-year age gap, both Arnold and Popovic have shared influences on their coaching, too: the duo having played together during the 1989-90 NSL season with Sydney Croatia -- Arnold even having a brief, two-game stint as player-coach during that campaign before Tony Vrzina arrived to replace Ron Corry -- and both having been influenced by Hajduk Split legend Vedran Rožić, who served as both a player and coach at Edensor Park from 1984 to 1989.

Popovic, nonetheless, has promised to bring a "speed and dynamic type of play" to the coming window and given the switch from domestic to club football, judgement will have to wait on how he'll set his sides up.

"From my experience working under [Popovic], we've always had so much freedom going forward." Victory attacker Daniel Arzani told ESPN. "It's something that I really enjoyed. I think it brought the best out of me. I think it's really good for attacking players, he lets you express yourself.

"He's big on having his tactics and the way he likes to set up defensively, but he lets you play with freedom up front and that's very important for creative type players such as myself."

Arnold's exit, however, hasn't just left a void in the Socceroos' coaching ranks. After taking on the Olyroos job in tandem with his Socceroos responsibilities in his first four years in charge, Arnold's contract renewal following the 2022 World Cup imbued him with significant, hands-on influence over the entire men's and boy's national team setup at Football Australia, to the extent that he was effectively serving as something close to a hybrid ambassador/technical director alongside his Socceroos responsibilities.

What role Ernie Merrick, Football Australia's chief football officer, has had in recent weeks isn't clear. The veteran mentor's day-to-day focus has largely been on recalibrating the federation's pathways and coaching education -- FIFA's shift to annual Under-17 World Cups signalled a back-to-the-drawing-board moment on that front -- but Johnson, when pressed on what the 71-year-old's role is, has often said that Merrick has input into all footballing decisions. Nonetheless, given that it was only the chief executive and chairman Anter Isaac who fronted the media throughout the process surrounding Arnold's exit and Popovic's arrival, the scope of Merrick's contribution to the hiring process remains known only to those within the federation.

Just over 18 months ago, when Football Australia renewed Arnold's contract, Johnson remarked that no other candidate had been talked to since the end of the 2022 World Cup. The federation made a significant investment of capital, both monetary and intellectual, in the coach. Now they have been forced to not only bring in a new coach just weeks out from a set of crucial World Cup qualifiers, but will need to replace one of the key drivers behind the entire program just two years into a four-year cycle. It's a significant disruption.

With the World Cup swelling to 48 teams in 2026, and Asia's allotment growing to 8.5, if ever there was a time for a sudden period of upheaval during a qualifying campaign, now was probably the most fourtunate timing for Football Australia.

Hindsight, however, is 20/20, and one wonders how much the federation will actually learn from all this.