Matchup Rankings: Baker Mayfield, J.K. Dobbins among players to upgrade

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.

My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.

"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor every unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings .

All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Quarterbacks

Matchups highlight: Baker Mayfield , Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Baltimore Ravens ). The second-highest-scoring quarterback for the season, by total fantasy points scored (135.16) and points per game (22.5), Mayfield has thrived in new offensive coordinator Liam Coen's offense. Under Coen, the Buccaneers have had a man in motion on 58% of Mayfield's dropbacks this season, and the quarterback has completed nine of his league-leading 15 touchdown passes on those plays. Mayfield is throwing with even greater comfort than he did during his breakthrough 2024, and that's likely to continue against a Ravens defense that has surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Others to like: Kirk Cousins , Atlanta Falcons (versus Seattle Seahawks ); Drake Maye , New England Patriots (at Jacksonville Jaguars ).

Matchup to avoid: Jared Goff , Detroit Lions (at Minnesota Vikings ). After back-to-back games in which he exceeded 25 fantasy points, completed multiple passing touchdowns and wasn't intercepted, Goff would figure to have earned a more permanent space in lineups. Unfortunately, he faces one of the toughest remaining schedules of any quarterback, beginning with this matchup against the hot-starting Vikings. Jordan Love is the only one of five quarterbacks to exceed his seasonal fantasy point average against the Vikings thus far, with the other four falling more than 2.5 points shy of their seasonal marks. Additionally, the Vikings have held quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest points per passing attempt (0.29), an issue for a pocket passer such as Goff.

Running backs

Matchups highlight: J.K. Dobbins , Los Angeles Chargers (at Arizona Cardinals ). Judging by the numbers, Dobbins' backfield takeover appeared complete last week, as he played 73% of the Chargers' offensive snaps and had 25 carries, both of those career bests. Dobbins also delivered 27 rushing yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats, and had three explosive runs (10-plus-yard gains), giving a look of his Weeks 1 and 2 performances (combined 139 rushing yards over expected, seven explosive runs) but across a much larger sample. He arrives at this matchup at a particularly opportune time, as the Cardinals have surrendered the most rushing yards over the past four weeks (735) and the sixth-most explosive runs for the season (24).

Others to like: Austin Ekeler , Washington Commanders (versus Carolina Panthers ); Tank Bigsby , Jaguars (versus Patriots).

Matchup to avoid: Jordan Mason , San Francisco 49ers (versus Kansas City Chiefs ). He and Aaron Jones (versus Detroit Lions) are big-name running backs who enter Week 7 with injury questions and face poor matchups, but Mason's is especially tough. The Chiefs are the only team to have not afforded an individual running back more than 13.2 PPR fantasy points in a game, and bear in mind that they've done that despite facing the Nos. 1 ( Alvin Kamara ), 2 ( Derrick Henry ) and 7 ( Bijan Robinson ) scorers for the season. Mason got off to a hot start to the season, but he has averaged 13.2 points the past four weeks and might see a more limited role due to the AC joint sprain in his left shoulder that he suffered last week.

Wide receivers

Matchups highlight: DeMario Douglas , Patriots (at Jaguars). "Patriots wide receivers" hasn't been a well fantasy managers have gone to much this season, as last week was the first time they placed any within the top 25 among positional scorers -- and they placed two , Douglas (eighth) and Kayshon Boutte (24th). That coincided with Drake Maye's installation at quarterback, a decision that breathed additional life into the Patriots' offense. A matchup with Jacksonville should only extend the team's passing success, as the Jaguars have seen eight different wide receivers score 15-plus PPR fantasy points in six games, including multiples in three of those games. Douglas, who has had at least a 28% target share in each of the past two weeks, should again deliver a productive fantasy score.

Others to like: Zay Flowers , Ravens (at Buccaneers); Diontae Johnson , Panthers (at Commanders).

Matchup to avoid: George Pickens , Pittsburgh Steelers (versus New York Jets ). Amidst all the Jets' struggles, the one aspect of the team that has excelled the past four weeks has been its pass defense. New York's 149.5 passing yards allowed per game are easily the fewest and they have seen only one wide receiver, Justin Jefferson (15.2 PPR fantasy points, Week 5), exceed 15 points. Pickens will have his hands full with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed in coverage, and his fantasy appeal is further threatened by talk that the Steelers might change quarterbacks from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson .

Tight ends

Matchups highlight: David Njoku , Cleveland Browns (versus Cincinnati Bengals ). His workload increased last week in his second game back from injury, running 22 routes, seeing a 30% target share and scoring 8.1 fantasy points, and that's likely to continue following the trade of Amari Cooper to Buffalo. Njoku should again be heavily involved against the Bengals, who have afforded tight ends the fourth-most points per target (2.05). In the past two weeks alone, tight ends have totaled 16 targets and 47.4 points against this defense.

Matchup to avoid: Dalton Kincaid , Buffalo Bills (versus Tennessee Titans ). Cooper's arrival will cut into Kincaid's target share, though the tight end might ultimately benefit from Cooper's ability to stretch the field, opening up more routes over the middle. Nevertheless, this isn't the week to expect a breakthrough from the second-year player, as the Titans have been one of the best at defending tight ends thus far. They've afforded the position only 1.18 points per target, fewest in the league, and shut down both Cole Kmet (1.4 points, Week 1) and Tucker Kraft (4.4, Week 3).