2024 Hurricane Season forecast has highest number ever predicted

2016's Hurricane Matthew making landfall in South Carolina.Photo byNOAA

A well-above average hurricane season is in the forecast for 2024 according to the prediction issued this week by scientists at Colorado State University. The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in a forecast by the University since it began issuing its April predictions in 1995.

The prediction for the upcoming season says there will be a whopping 23 named storms and a total of 11 hurricanes; five of which will be at a Category 3 strength or higher; and a 34% chance that the Southeast U.S. will see one.

An average season normally has 14 named storms, around 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.

Residents living along the U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean should be prepared for a high average probability for major hurricanes making landfall near their homes.

Hurricane season begins officially in June and lasts through November.

The trend has been an increase in hurricane activity over the past several years. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was record-breaking, with 30 named storms and 13 hurricanes, including six major hurricanes and was only the second time the Greek alphabet was utilized to complete a season.

The 2023 season, which was forecasted to be a milder season, there were 20 named storms, which is 6 more than normal and the fourth-most named storms on record.

According to the forecast, everything is leaning toward an extremely active season: still record warm Atlantic water temperatures and a pretty rapid transition over to La Niña, the report said. The team cites record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 11 hurricanes this year.

Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and a likely developing La Niña, the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence for an April outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.

This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook. The prior highest April forecast was for nine hurricanes, which has been called for several times since the university began issuing April forecasts in 1995.

However, the team stresses that the April outlook historically has the lowest level of skill of CSU’s operational seasonal hurricane forecasts, given the considerable changes that can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between April and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October.

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, the researchers said. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their forecast in May.