Luka Doncic has always put up MVP-level numbers, but for one reason or another, the award has slipped through his fingers. Now, after leading the Mavericks to the NBA Finals in 2024 and with the addition of sharpshooter Klay Thompson in a blockbuster six-team deal, Luka heads into the 2024-25 season as a strong MVP favorite . With K lay spacing the floor alongside Kyrie Irving , the Mavericks are poised for another deep run.
1. Team Record
Winning the MVP is heavily tied to how well your team performs. Last season, Nikola Jokic took home his third MVP award, leading the Nuggets to a 57-25 record and the second seed in the West. That kind of success is usually a key factor for voters. Luka Doncic, on the other hand, has never finished a season with the Mavericks in the top three in the conference. The best record the Mavericks have posted with Luka leading them was 52-30, which didn’t push him over the edge in previous MVP races, as last season they ended up in fifth place with a 50-32 record.
To really make his case this season, Luka will need to hit at least 55 wins with the Mavericks. Historically, most MVPs come from teams with one of the top records in the league, and this should be Luka’s target. Last season’s success in the playoffs, where the Mavericks made the NBA Finals, proved that they’re capable of making a deep run. Now, it’s about carrying that momentum into the regular season and locking in a top-three seed.
What makes this season different is the roster around Luka. With Klay Thompson joining the team, alongside Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks finally have a core that complements Luka’s playmaking and scoring ability. Thompson’s shooting will help open up the floor, and a healthy Kyrie adds another dynamic offensive weapon. This might just be Luka’s best chance to not only push the Mavericks to the top of the standings but also secure his long-awaited MVP trophy.
2. Availability Is The Best Ability
The NBA’s new 65-game rule is a big factor in the MVP race this season. Since last season, any player hoping to qualify for major awards like MVP must play at least 65 games. This means Luka Doncic has to stay healthy throughout most of the season to remain in the conversation. In 2023-24, Luka played 70 games, which kept him eligible and earned him another All-NBA First Team nod. His availability will be crucial again this season if he wants to seriously contend for the MVP.
Luka consistently puts up MVP-worthy numbers. In the 2023-24 season, he averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game, which are stats that could win the MVP in any given year. Yet, staying healthy is becoming just as important as producing on the court. If Luka can play at least 65 games again, he’s already got the numbers to make a strong case for the award. Availability will be key, especially considering that in past seasons, injuries have held him back from being a top candidate.
What makes this rule even more important is how competitive the MVP race has become. Players like Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are constantly putting up ridiculous stats and playing a high number of games. Missing a handful of games could be the difference between winning or falling short. Luka has shown he can stay on the court, but with the new rule in place, even minor injuries could derail his MVP hopes.
Ultimately, the Mavericks will need Luka to be present for most of the season to secure a high seed in the playoffs, and Luka will need to be available for at least 65 games to remain in MVP contention. With his talent and leadership, if he stays healthy, there's no doubt he’ll be one of the frontrunners for the award.
Related: 2024-25 Early NBA Award Predictions
3. Show Effort On Defense
Defense is often overlooked when discussing MVP candidates, but it’s becoming increasingly important for players to show effort on both ends of the floor to win the award. Luka Doncic’s offensive game is undeniable—he’s one of the best scorers and playmakers in the league. But his defense has been the subject of criticism, with some questioning his intensity and consistency on that side of the ball. For Luka to truly stand out and make his MVP case airtight, improving his defensive impact will be crucial.
Luka has the size and basketball IQ to be a better defender, but the effort and focus need to be there game in and game out, not just in the postseason (108.9 rating), where he’s been more than decent. In the playoffs, he’s had moments where he’s shown he can be disruptive on defense, but maintaining that level across an entire regular season is what’s been missing. According to advanced metrics, Luka ranked near the bottom in defensive efficiency among star players (115.6 rating) in 2023-24, which has held him back in the MVP race.
This season, with a stronger supporting cast including Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving, Luka won’t need to carry the entire offensive load. That could allow him to conserve energy and focus more on being a solid defender. It doesn’t mean Luka needs to be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but even a slight improvement in his defensive stats—like steals and defensive win shares—could help elevate his overall MVP case.
Voters are paying more attention to two-way players in the MVP race, and Luka’s ability to show effort on defense, combined with his offensive brilliance, could be the final piece to securing his first MVP trophy.
4. Win Key Matchups Against Other Candidates
Winning individual matchups against other MVP candidates can be a game-changer in the race for the trophy. For Luka Doncic, taking down teams like the Nuggets with reigning MVP Nikola Jokic, and the Thunder led by runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, will be critical. These head-to-head battles often grab the attention of voters, especially when they occur on the big stage or have playoff implications. With the Mavericks, Nuggets, and Thunder all competing in the same conference, Luka will get multiple chances to prove he’s the best player in the West.
One of the biggest opportunities for Luka to make his case will be against Jokic and the Nuggets. Jokic has been the standard for MVPs in recent years, and winning key games against him, especially in nationally televised matchups, will make a strong impression. The Mavericks will face the Nuggets several times during the season, and if Luka can outshine Jokic in those games, it will add weight to his MVP campaign.
Equally important will be his battles against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder. Shai led Oklahoma City to the top seed last season and was a serious MVP contender himself. These games will be pivotal for Luka, as the Thunder are direct competition in the Western Conference standings. Winning these matchups could solidify the Mavericks' spot near the top of the standings while giving Luka a head-to-head edge over another MVP candidate.
By dominating in these marquee matchups, Luka can build momentum for his MVP candidacy. Beating other top players when it matters most, and in the same conference, will only strengthen his case.
5. Be Clutch When It Matters The Most
To win the MVP award, Luka Doncic will need to show that he can be clutch when it matters most—during the regular season. While his performances in the playoffs have proven he’s got the ability to come through in the clutch, MVP voters are looking for that same energy when the pressure is on in key regular-season games. Luka has already delivered some iconic game-winners and buzzer-beaters throughout his career, but this season, he'll need more of those moments to elevate his status and gain recognition as the guy who delivers in the biggest moments. Last season he shot 45.7% in the clutch—great numbers, but needs to have more iconic game winners and buzzer beaters like in previous seasons.
MVP candidates are often remembered for their clutch performances in close games, especially in prime-time matchups. Last season, Luka had multiple game-winners and clutch moments, but turning up the heat this year in those pressure-packed moments will give him that extra aura of greatness. He doesn’t need to win Clutch Player of the Year, but hitting buzzer-beaters or taking over late in games when his team needs him will solidify his MVP resume.
Clutch play is often what separates good players from great players in the eyes of voters. Luka already has the stats and the skills, but the more iconic, game-winning plays he makes, the stronger his MVP case becomes. Whether it’s against top teams like the Nuggets or Thunder, or in crucial divisional matchups, Luka needs to step up in crunch time and prove he’s not only the best player on the court but also the most reliable when the game is on the line.
These big moments leave a lasting impression, and if Luka can repeatedly deliver when the pressure is at its highest, he'll cement himself as the front-runner for the MVP award.
Related: Ranking The MVP Candidates By Tiers For The 2024-25 NBA Season
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