From Whale Blubber to Oil: A New Era of Energy Transition Begins

Photo byPhoto by Chris Liverani on Unsplash

The transition from oil as a primary energy source is likened to the historical shift from whale blubber, which once powered society until overuse led to its decline. This change will involve intricate geopolitical, technological, and economic shifts as reliance on oil diminishes.

Historically, whale blubber was used for oil, contributing to the near-extinction of many whale species. Similarly, petroleum, derived from ancient biological materials, has been crucial since the mid-19th century, revolutionizing industries and daily life. However, with advancements in renewable energy and the pressing need to combat climate change, oil is expected to phase out over the next few decades.

Current trends indicate a decline in oil use for home energy, with electric vehicles (EVs) anticipated to reduce oil consumption in transportation significantly. EVs are projected to dominate the global market by 2030, potentially diminishing car-driven oil demand within 50 years. In aviation, which heavily relies on oil, efforts are underway to develop more fuel-efficient aircraft and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) from waste materials. SAFs, compatible with existing engines, are expected to constitute a significant portion of aviation fuel by 2050.

With its high dependence on oil and the high costs and longevity of ships, the shipping industry faces challenges. Hydrogen fuel cells are a possible alternative, but they face storage and energy density issues. Additionally, the petrochemical industry, which produces plastics and other essential materials, relies heavily on oil. Although there is progress in developing bioplastics, their adoption is complicated by economic and environmental factors.

The decline of oil will be gradual, influenced by the increasing cost-effectiveness of clean energy technologies. Risky and costly oil extraction methods will be phased out first, but established oil wells, particularly in regions like Saudi Arabia and the U.S., will continue to operate for decades. The timeline for reducing global oil use varies, with predictions ranging from significant reductions by 2065 to a slower decline by 2050. Ultimately, oil is expected to become a relic like abandoned mines and ghost towns as society transitions to a more sustainable and diverse energy future.