How secretary of state elections became the new battleground for election deniers

Kari Estes made a 25-minute journey from her home in Festus, Missouri, to the suburbs of St. Louis County on a hot summer evening to mingle with Democratic Secretary of State candidate Barbara Phifer.

Estes was among a few dozen voters who gathered for an ice cream social to hear Phifer less than a week from the state’s primary election on Aug. 6. It was her first time seeing Phifer in person – and she said she felt an air of “hopefulness” in the room that day.

“What she said when she addressed all of us is that the secretary of state position should be boring … (and) nonpartisan,” she said. "Since the 'big lie' and steal the election and all of that, people now are more aware of the importance of the secretary of state to be nonpartisan and neutral on the subject of certifying elections."

For Estes and many voters paying close attention to secretary of state races around the country, the stakes couldn't be higher.

Secretary of state races have become more competitive this year as former President Donald Trump runs at the top of the Republican ticket in the presidential race. He was indicted twice over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election and has repeatedly made false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

And most of the seven states where elections are held this year – Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia – feature prominent Trump supporters questioning the validity of the 2020 election and vowing to reform the elections process in a way that some experts say could keep voters from the polls.

Anita Manion, an assistant professor in political science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, said that in 2020, secretaries of state stood by the results of their elections "in the face of great pressure."

“If those officials are replaced with election deniers, the administration and certification of elections could be negatively impacted," she said. "While it is unlikely that the secretary of state acting alone could overturn the results of their state’s election, they can influence the processes of election administration and help to combat or amplify false narratives about elections."

Secretary of state role under increased scrutiny in recent years

Though the secretary of state role varies in each state, most officials typically oversee the administration of elections, including setting up guidelines and rules for local officials to follow in running elections, said Peverill Squire, a professor in the department of political science at the University of Missouri. They also often have a role in how ballot initiatives, referendums and recall elections are administered.

But “as questions have been raised about voter registration, election mechanics, and ballot measures, greater public attention is now given to the office's agenda,” he said.

These questions stem from false allegations of rigged elections, widespread voter fraud and manipulated voting machines that have been espoused by political leaders on the right and others in recent years, Manion said.

She pointed to the infamous phone call between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger on Jan. 2, 2021, days before the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, in which the former president allegedly pressured Raffensperger to find “11,780 votes” and alter the election's outcome in the Peach State.

Raffensperger pushed back on Trump's claims and testified before the U.S. House in 2022 when Trump was under investigation for the Capitol attack. This year, he's taken efforts he says will bolster election security , such as allowing voters to cancel their voter registration online through a web portal.

“This is an example of the important role that secretaries of state can play in these times of heightened scrutiny on election administration,” Manion said.

Election deniers aim for victories

In the 2022 midterm elections, Trump endorsed four candidates in crucial battleground states running for secretary of state: Jim Marchant in Nevada, Kristina Karamo in Michigan, Mark Finchem in Arizona, and Kim Crockett in Minnesota. All four of them lost the election to Democratic incumbents Jocelyn Benson in Michigan, Steve Simon in Minnesota, Cisco Aguilar in Nevada and Adrian Fontes in Arizona.

This year, Trump supporters are hoping to reverse that loss, with some boosted by the former president running on a national ticket. In deep-red Missouri, Republican candidates already have a long list of initiatives they will pursue if elected to the position.

Denny Hoskins, for one, said he believes “the most secure elections are in person on Election Day with a voter ID and a paper ballot.”

As Missouri state senator, he supported a bill signed by Gov. Mike Parson in 2022 that banned ballot drop boxes and certain electronic voting machines, required every resident to have photo ID and banned what Republicans call “Zuckerbucks ,” private grants given to understaffed and underfunded election offices. Hoskins was endorsed by Mike Lindell, the founder and CEO of My Pillow and prominent election denier.

Republican candidate Valentina Gomez said that she’s made the secretary of state race the most “coveted one” after Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.

“I look forward to accepting President Trump's endorsement so that nobody can ever cheat again, because Joe Biden definitely did not get 81 million votes,” she claimed in an emailed statement to USA TODAY.

She said if she’s elected, she would get rid of mail in ballots, implement same day voting, hand count paper ballots and deploy the National Guard to “secure the chain of custody.”

Experts previously told USA TODAY that mail-in-voting and drop boxes are safe, and Manion said there's evidence both can increase voter turnout. She also pointed to research that's shown ballots counted by hand are less accurate than those conducted by machine.

Hoskins and Gomez are running against six other Republican candidates: Mike Carter, Mary Elizabeth Coleman, Jamie Corley, Shane Schoeller, Adam Schwadron and Dean Plocher.

Other Republican secretary of state candidates have also cast doubt on the 2020 election results in interviews with USA TODAY, including West Virginian Kris Warner and Vermont's H. Brooke Paige – both of whom are lone GOP candidates in their state's race. Paige is facing off against Democrat incumbent Sarah Copeland Hanzas while Warner is going head to head with Democrat Thornton Cooper.

Democrats say 'democracy' is on the ballot

Democratic candidates, on the other hand, have provided counter-messaging on the campaign trail.

Phifer argued that her Republican opponents are “creating chaos that is a fundamental risk to democracy.” Besides the election integrity issue, she’s also campaigning for abortion and against banning books. She is running against two lesser known candidates, Monique Williams and Haley Jacobsen, in the Aug. 6 primary.

In Oregon, Democratic candidate Tobias Read said he wants to make sure people have “little to no barrier” to voting. He pointed to how his opponent, Republican Dennis Linthicum, filed a lawsuit in 2022 along with other plaintiffs that sought to end Oregon’s vote-by-mail system. It was dismissed.

“We want to make sure that people … have the confidence that the results will stand up to scrutiny," he said. "We want someone to say, ‘I didn't like that outcome. But I have confidence that that's an accurate count.'"

The current Democratic secretary of state in Oregon, LaVonne Griffin-Valade, is not running for reelection.

Jesse James Mullen, a former journalist and Democratic candidate in Montana, knocked Republican incumbent Christi Jacobson for sending out voter pamphlets that contained inaccurate information during the 2022 midterm elections.

“You don't have to send out blatantly false information,” he said. “But they wanted to dissuade people on the reservations from voting. They wanted to dissuade people in university towns from voting because they knew that it would not work in their best interest. Misinformation when it comes to our elections isn't something that you can fix overnight.”

USA TODAY reached out to Jacobsen’s office for comment.

Will voters reject election deniers in 2024?

Numerous polls indicate that voters will likely be casting their ballots along party lines.

An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll from January found that 62% of those supporting Trump said they didn't believe Biden had been legitimately elected in 2020. Fifty-two percent of Trump supporters said they had no confidence that the results of the 2024 election would be accurately counted and reported.

A Pew Research Center survey also found that only 6% of voters crossed party lines in the 2022 midterm elections. With most states that candidates are running in this year being reliably red or blue, some parties already have a built-in advantage over others.

Nevertheless, organizing efforts on the ground are underway to boost voter turnout, especially in Missouri which has the most crowded primary this year on both sides.

Susan Marner Sides, a retired United Methodist Church pastor in Bernie, Missouri, hosted a meet-and-greet for Phifer in June, inviting mostly local residents.

“I've known her for many, many years, about as long as I've been in ministry – nearly 40 years, I think. And so I know her character, and I know her well. I also know that she stands for free and open elections,” Sides, 68, said.

About a dozen people came to the event, she said, who have like-minded interests to hers.

Travis Brimm, the executive director for the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State, said in an interview that the Missouri race is different this year because there is an open seat.

“That doesn't even take into account how great our candidate is, Barbara Phifer. I mean, she is Missouri in a nutshell. Her family's been there since the 1820s. … It's just a really, really great opportunity for us," he said.

Republicans, on the other hand, have been holding competing events. Karson Weymuth, 20, and a volunteer on Hoskins' campaign, said he’s spoken on the candidate’s behalf at least 15 or 20 times at this point. “We've seen record high turnouts at these events,” he said.

Edward Ray Hylton, 63 and a retiree, said he’ll be voting for Hoskins because “he is for election integrity and making sure that the votes count.”

“It’s more just a visceral feel,” he said. “I've never missed voting in any election I was eligible to vote in. And sometimes you just get a feel for a candidate.”

In other states, candidates from both parties have also taken grand efforts to reach out to voters, such as Washington Republican candidate Dale Whitaker who has appeared on podcasts and spoken at meet and greets.

“There's no evidence for wide scale fraud in Washington state in 2020. The issue isn't an issue of evidentiary findings. It's that the electorate have a distrust towards the process, and when you have a secretary of state who is not being transparent with the electorate, isn't conducting town halls, isn't speaking to people. … These things continue to build distrust in the electoral process," Whitaker said.

Mullen said he has campaigned almost “exclusively” in rural communities. "They (voters) understand that when somebody truly cares about their community and is willing to sit and listen and engage with them, they will vote across party lines," he said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How secretary of state elections became the new battleground for election deniers