Drenching tropical wave has sights on Florida

A surge in downpours and gusty thunderstorms that could disrupt outdoor plans and travel in Florida is forecast to begin later this weekend and may persist into next week.

In the wake of mighty Hurricane Beryl, the Atlantic has returned to a quiet state. However, waves of moisture and energy continue to lurk about, and one such tropical system will affect Florida from Sunday to Tuesday, AccuWeather meteorologists say.

A vast amount of dry air and dust is present over the unusually warm waters of the tropical Atlantic this week, and it will remain a deterring factor for tropical development in the short term.

Meanwhile, batches of showers and thunderstorms associated with weak areas of low pressure, known as tropical waves, continue to roll westward from Africa.

One such tropical wave was located over the middle of the Atlantic on Wednesday and will cross the Leeward Islands on Thursday. It will then progress westward from the British and U.S. Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico on Friday and west-northwestward near Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas this weekend.

As this system moves along, it will bring an uptick in downpours and squally thunderstorms. Localized torrential downpours on some of the islands can lead to flash flooding.

Later on Sunday, the system will approach the Florida Peninsula from the southeast, resulting in a similar uptick in downpours and gusty thunderstorms. A couple of waterspouts can also occur.

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"While we do not expect this system to organize and strengthen, it will bring locally heavy rain to Florida from as early as Sunday to perhaps as long as Tuesday in some areas," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

As the system pushes northwestward across the Florida Peninsula early next week, more numerous showers and thunderstorms will break out. This can lead to localized urban flooding and gusty thunderstorms, perhaps capable of triggering sporadic power outages.

On a positive note, the tropical wave may bring beneficial rain to needy areas in central and northern Florida, as well as the mainland of the Southeastern states.

Beyond Florida, some tropical moisture may be injected into the developing wet pattern for the Southeastern states next week. This enhancement can lead to an increase in the amount of flash flooding incidents and drought relief in some areas.

The current midsummer lull in Atlantic tropical activity is typical, but as Beryl demonstrated, the situation can turn around in a hurry should the right conditions arise. This past winter, AccuWeather meteorologists warned of super-charged hurricane season for 2024, and the team remains firm on their beliefs for what is coming, including the potential for many more systems to intensify rapidly as Beryl did.

The historical peak of hurricane season does not occur until mid-September.

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