State officials predict Florida K-12 enrollment will continue to grow

(The Center Square) — Florida economists have suggested that full-time enrollment in Florida's schools has increased over recent years but still remains below pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

The Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research held a two-part education estimating conference in late June and July for Florida's Public Schools Capital Outlay Full Time Equivalent Membership - and forecasts show a small but steady increase in enrollments.

During the pandemic, enrollments in Florida schools decreased by 6% in the fall of 2020. While they have begun to increase, they remain 3% below their prior level. Economists noted that this is due to more school options being presented to parents, including homeschooling options and access to scholarships.

According to state data , full-time equivalent enrollment from pre-K through 12th grade had a total of 2.37 million students in 2022-2023, an increase of over 32,000 or 1.4% over the previous year.

This was, however, less than anticipated from the 2023 forecast, and EDR economists pointed out more parents are choosing a different setting for kindergarten.

"The take-home point here is that kindergarten came in less than anticipated, which is a reflection of families choosing a non-COFTE setting for their kindergartener," Elizabeth Goodman from EDR said during the conference.

The conference projected in 2023-2024, student numbers will again increase by 0.2% or 3,774 full time students. Into the future, enrollment is forecast to continue growth trends, projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024-2025, and 0.7% in 2025-2026.

State Pre-K numbers only include preschool-aged children with disabilities and children whose parents are in the Teenage Parent Program. Estimates also do not include children participating exclusively in the Voluntary Prekindergarten Program who receive services through the public school system.

School districts were invited to submit comments on the June forecast between July 2 and July 12. Five school districts — Hernando, Brevard, Flagler, Osceola and St. Lucie — requested workbooks.

Flagler requested a change to the conference's forecast model, asking to use the two most recent years. Flagler's preliminary forecast was 12,112.39 membership. The district's new forecast for the projected 2024-2025 is now 12,242.64 membership, and the conference adopted it.