Hurricane forecasters expect Tropical Storm Debby to form, drench Florida

Tropical storm watches and warnings were hoisted Friday morning for the west coast of Florida as a developing system threatens to drench much of the state with heavy rain over the weekend.

The main impact from the storm – which would be named Tropical Storm Debby – will likely be heavy rainfall. That "may result in flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday morning," the National Hurricane Center said. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

Other impacts include tropical-storm-force winds and a 1-3 foot storm surge in some areas, the NHC warned.

What is the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?

The tropical wave in question, which the NHC has dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day Friday and emerge over the Straits of Florida (the J-shaped channel located between the Florida Keys and Cuba) on Friday night or Saturday, the NHC said Friday morning.

It will become a tropical depression overnight tonight, then Tropical Storm Debby on Saturday, the NHC said. A system transitions from a depression to a named tropical storm when its sustained winds reach 39 mph. If winds reach 74 mph, it becomes a hurricane.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later Friday, if necessary, the agency said.

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?

• Location : 90 miles east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba; 420 miles southeast of Key West
• Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
• Movement : west-northwest at 16 mph

State of emergency in Florida

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 of the state's 67 counties in anticipation of what could be the first major storm of the hurricane season, with the potential to cause weekslong river flooding, the Pensacola News Journal reported .

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In a post on X Thursday afternoon , DeSantis said "Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by @FLSERT and local emergency management officials."

Could the storm rapidly intensify?

As the system moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it has the potential to evolve quickly, AccuWeather said. "While moving over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf, the tropical rainstorm could gain strength quickly since the atmosphere will be more moist and disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be low," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, in an online post.

Another meteorologist, the University of Miami's Brian McNoldy, said on his blog that "Due to extremely warm water temperatures in the northeast Gulf, the possibility of rapid intensification can't be ignored."

Rapid intensification is a process in which a storm undergoes accelerated growth: The phenomenon is typically defined to be a tropical cyclone (whether a tropical storm or hurricane) intensifying by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.

"Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely conducive environment," Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said last year. "Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear and high levels of midlevel moisture."

As of Friday afternoon, according to the NHC, the highest wind speed that Debby is forecast to attain is 65 mph, still below the 74 mph needed to achieve hurricane status.

Bottom line: Be prepared

Although an organized storm has not formed yet, forecasters still advised folks to be prepared: "Residents from Louisiana to Florida's west coast have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies," Pastelok said.

The National Weather Service in Tampa said, "for now, the bottom line is monitor the progress of this system, and check your hurricane preparedness plan."

With heavy rain in the forecast, "consider your vulnerability to flooding," the NWS said.

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Atlantic storm tracker

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Atlantic storm spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

What is a tropical wave?

A tropical wave is a meteorological term, referring to an elongated area of low pressure, or cyclonic curvature maximum moving east to west across the tropics, according to the National Weather Service. They are also known as an easterly wave, and can lead to the formation of a tropical storm.

What needs to happen for Tropical Storm Debby to form?

If the storm brewing over the Caribbean, dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Four , has winds reach 39 mph, the system would receive the name Tropical Storm Debby, and it would be the fourth named storm of what's predicted to be an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season .

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Contributing: Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters expect Tropical Storm Debby to form, drench Florida