Tropical rainstorm in Caribbean to impact Florida, to strengthen

While strengthening of a tropical rainstorm may be slow initially, it is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches Florida this weekend with an uptick in downpours, thunderstorms and surf.

A tropical rainstorm will impact the northern islands of the Caribbean through the end of the week before approaching Florida this weekend when AccuWeather meteorologists believe the storm may further organize and strengthen. The scope of rain, wind and sea impacts will depend on the track and strength of the storm.

AccuWeather meteorologists began referring to the tropical wave as a tropical rainstorm Monday to raise public awareness of the situation, including its potential to strengthen into a tropical storm. The feature began producing rain and impacting the northern islands of the Caribbean on Tuesday.

No other systems in the Atlantic are competing for a name at this time. The next name on the list of tropical storms in the Atlantic is Debby. Interests from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Gulf and Atlantic coast of the United States should monitor the rainstorm's progress.

Latest updates on the tropics

On satellite images, the tropical rainstorm, currently just west of the large island of Hispaniola, was more organized than at the start of the week but was far from being a tropical depression or tropical storm.

On Wednesday, the tropical rainstorm stretched across a few hundred miles and was lacking a well-defined center that all tropical depressions and tropical storms have.

By Thursday, there were notable signs that a center of circulation was beginning to form along the northern coast of Hispaniola, but thus far there is a lack of strong winds.

On Friday morning, the feature was bringing pockets of rain and thunderstorms to eastern and central Cuba.

"A storm center that remains over or close to the large, mountainous islands of the northern Caribbean from Hispaniola to Cuba will tend to keep strengthening at bay," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Since the feature will tend to pass over or hug the coast of Cuba for a time, strengthening is unlikely into Friday night. However, that will change once it begins to push on farther to the north this weekend.

Impacts in the Caribbean to continue

In the short term, the tropical rainstorm will hug the islands and bring locally torrential downpours that can lead to flash flooding and mudslides, as well as gusty thunderstorms that can trigger sporadic power outages.

Enough circulation of the tropical rainstorm may develop to create rough seas and dangerous surf around the islands of the northern Caribbean, the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas as the storm pushes westward.

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As the system approaches then moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the chance of a tropical depression and full-fledged tropical storm forming will increase substantially.

Risk of strengthening to a tropical depression, tropical storm

How quickly the tropical rainstorm strengthens will likely determine its track relative to Florida and the rest of the southern and eastern U.S. A strengthening storm would bring an increase in wind and rain near the core. At the same time, the overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms may consolidate.

As the tropical rainstorm moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend into early next week, it has the potential to evolve quickly. While moving over the warm waters of the eastern Gulf, the tropical rainstorm could gain strength quickly since the atmosphere will be more moist and disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will be low.

At this time, it appears the feature will make landfall along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula as a tropical storm or perhaps a hurricane sometime Sunday evening or night. How far to the north or south along the Florida west coast will depend on how quickly it strengthens and how steady steering breezes remain.

Florida impacts

Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.

A swath of rainfall will be along the track of the rainstorm from the Caribbean through the Carolinas. Rain of varying intensity will occur over much of Florida with the likelihood of urban and low-lying area flooding in some locations.

As the rainstorm approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend. Rip currents will not be the only beach and boating hazards to be on alert for, as there will be a risk for waterspouts.

Ahead of the tropical feature, a swath of intense heat with high humidity will build over the Southeastern states.

The heat and humidity will be above what is typical for the region in early August and will make any preparatory work in advance of the tropical feature difficult.

What could happen next week

“Steering breezes that are guiding the tropical rainstorm to the west-northwest this week and a more northerly path this weekend are likely to weaken next week,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “And that could create a problem for the forward speed of the tropical feature.”

This potential stalling scenario could bring days of downpours to parts of the Southeast, especially in coastal areas, instead of a focus of rain in parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England next week. However, that is subject to the intensity and track of the tropical rainstorm after it passes near Florida this weekend.

In a worst-case scenario, the tropical rainstorm could stall over northern Florida or move very slowly along the Georgia and Carolina coast and produce feet rather than inches of rain in some areas, which would result in major flooding.

Should steering breezes remain steady, the system would tend to hook back out into the Atlantic and move along or offshore of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts next week.

Super-charged hurricane season anticipated

AccuWeather has not wavered from its prediction of a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

Record-setting Category 5 Hurricane Beryl demonstrated the concern AccuWeather's team of experts had about the potential energy available to the extremely warm Atlantic waters.

As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, great numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast, along with the likelihood of additional storms that intensify rapidly as Beryl did.

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