Hurricane watch issued for parts of Florida as Gulf Coast braces for Tropical Storm Debby

A tropical depression advancing into the Gulf of Mexico is becoming more organized, forecasters announced on Saturday, and it's set to bring soaking rain and coastal flooding to a large portion of Florida's Gulf Coast.

The weather system intensified into a tropical depression late Friday and is predicted to escalate into a tropical storm by Saturday night, once it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or more. If the depression upgrades to tropical storm status, it will be christened Debby, marking the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The storm's circulation was pinpointed about 15 miles (25 kilometers) west of Havana on Saturday afternoon, but the associated wind and thunderstorms were dispersed over a wide area, encompassing southern and central Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas.

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The National Hurricane Center in Miami anticipates that the depression will gain strength as it veers northward off the southwest Florida coast, where the water has been exceptionally warm, with temperatures nearing 92 degrees Fahrenheit (33 Celsius) this week.

Projections indicate the system could make landfall as a potent tropical storm or hurricane on Monday and traverse northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean, where it's likely to persist as a tropical storm posing a threat to Georgia and the Carolinas early next week. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for most of Florida's West Coast and the Dry Tortugas.

A hurricane watch has been issued for parts of the Big Bend and Florida Panhandle, indicating that Debby could potentially escalate to a hurricane before making landfall. A warning signifies that storm conditions are anticipated within 36 hours, while a watch suggests that storm effects could occur within 48 hours.

Tropical storms and hurricanes have the potential to cause river flooding and overwhelm drainage systems and regional canals. Forecasters are cautioning about 5 to 10 inches (125 mm to 250 mm) of rainfall, which could result in "locally considerable" flash and urban flooding.

Moderate flooding warnings have already been issued for some rivers along Florida's West Coast. The heaviest rains might actually occur next week in an area along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, north through coastal regions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The storm is predicted to slow down after hitting land.

National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan stated in a Saturday briefing, "We could see a stall or a meandering motion around coastal portions of the southeastern United States," adding, "So that's going to exacerbate not just the rainfall risk, but also the potential for storm surge and some strong winds."

Flat Florida is susceptible to flooding even on clear days due to the so-called king tides that surge in coastal areas. The storm is expected to cause storm tides of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters) along most of Florida's Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay.

A higher tide of 3 to 5 feet is predicted further north in Florida's sparsely populated Big Bend region. On Saturday, forecasters issued a storm surge warning, stating there's "a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation" in areas including Hernando Beach, Crystal River, Steinhatchee, and Cedar Key. Officials in Citrus County ordered a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas.

A tropical storm warning was issued for the southern end of the Florida Keys, where multiple wind gusts above 45 mph (72 kph) were recorded. On Saturday morning, conditions on Long Key were windy and squally, but Scott Battle, operator of Florida Boy Bar and Grill, described the situation as "fine."

"It's spitting off and on and blowing a little, but not too bad," he said. Preparations are underway in Florida to guard against flooding.

On Friday, residents in some Florida cities filled sandbags to protect against potential flooding. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for most Florida counties, extending from the Florida Keys up through Central Florida and the Tampa Bay region and into the western Panhandle.

Christina Lothrop, the general manager at Blue Pelican Marina in Hernando Beach, a barrier island approximately 50 miles north of St. Petersburg, noted that Saturday still felt like a typical summer day with the public ramp across the street bustling with people launching boats.

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"Today it's kind of normal, which is kind of weird," Lothrop shared. However, she mentioned that her marina staff have been preparing for the storm since Tuesday. They've been securing boats stored on racks, putting away tool boxes, and tying everything down.

"Right now what we're doing is mostly tying up boats," she explained, adding that no boats would be left in the water to avoid them coming untied and drifting away or causing damage. Before closing the marina store on Saturday, Lothrop plans to elevate computers off the floor and sandbag and tape doors. She recalled how last year's Hurricane Idalia pushed about a foot of water into the store.

On Friday, crews moved floating cranes away from a bridge construction project across Tampa Bay, securing together 74 barges and 24 floating cranes and anchoring them until the storm passes, according to project engineer Marianne Brinson as reported by the Tampa Bay Times. Land-based cranes were also laid down on their sides.

Floridians still feel the chill when they hear the name Debby, recalling the 2012 tropical storm that left a trail of destruction amounting to $250 million and claimed eight lives, seven from Florida itself. The storm unleashed its fury along Florida's Gulf Coast up to the north, with a mind-blowing 29 inches of rain measured just south of Tallahassee.

Local business owner Rick Falkenstein vividly remembers "the high tides, the flooding" caused by the historic storm. Erosion from past tempests has necessitated a halt in a significant beach replenishment effort in Pinellas County, costing around $5 million.

In another corner of the weather map, Hurricane Carlotta, far off Mexico's western seaboard, continued its journey into the Pacific on Saturday, boasting winds at a robust 90 mph. Though it might gain some strength, the hurricane center predicts Carlotta will start to weaken by Sunday as it encounters less favorable conditions and should fade into a cluster of thunderstorms within days, lifting all watches and warnings.