Drenching Debby now inland over southeastern US as a tropical storm

Tropical storm warnings are in place along the Florida coast as Debby moves across the state with flooding rain, damaging winds and storm surge.

Hurricane Debby made landfall as a category 1 hurricane with winds of 80 mph just before 7:00 a.m. EDT Monday morning near Steinhatchee along Florida's Big Bend. At least 300,000 homes and businesses are without power across Florida as Debby’s hurricane-force winds batter the state, according to PowerOutage.com. Torrential rain and life-threatening flooding will be Debby's main legacy moving forward, even though it has been officially downgraded to a tropical storm.

The storm will continue to spread rain, gusty winds, and severe thunderstorms as it moves toward the Florida Peninsula's Gulf coast. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that Debby could stall along the Carolina coast this week, which may significantly exacerbate the life-threatening conditions.

AccuWeather dubbed the wave of low pressure a tropical rainstorm on Monday, July 29, to raise public awareness as it approached the Leeward Islands with drenching showers and thunderstorms. During the rest of the week, the tropical rainstorm pushed slowly but steadily west across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Debby at 5 p.m. EDT on Saturday, becoming a hurricane at 11 p.m. EDT on Sunday. Debby was downgraded to a 70-mph tropical storm at 11 a.m. EDT on Monday.

Debby will track northeastward across the northern part of Florida on Monday and will reach southern Georgia later in the day.

The latest on Tropical Storm Debby

Storm surge flooding, up to a few feet, occurred on Sunday in Fort Myers Beach, Florida. Significant overwash occurred in St. Petersburg, Florida. Water levels rose significantly in Tampa Bay, Florida, Sunday night. Rainfall since Friday has topped 12 inches in Sarasota, Florida, with more than 6 inches falling in Tampa and at least 4 inches falling on Fort Myers. Conditions will deteriorate from Monday to Tuesday in northern Florida as torrential rain leads to rapid rises on area streams and rivers.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Big Bend area of the Florida Gulf coast from Yankeetown to Indian Pass. A tropical storm warning was also in effect for part of the Atlantic coast from St. Augustine to the South Santee River in South Carolina.

A state of emergency was declared in Florida on Thursday evening, a move that opened up additional resources to the state to prepare for the approaching storm. On Saturday, a state of emergency was declared for Georgia. Evacuation orders were issued for some low-lying areas of the Florida coastline on Saturday. On Sunday, South Carolina joined the growing list of states with a state of emergency in effect.

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Debby may bring impacts similar to a Category 3 hurricane

Debby is rated a 3 for the U.S. on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes due to dangerous storm surge, life-threatening flooding from torrential rain and strong winds.

“Debby will produce a variety of life-threatening and significant impacts for days to come," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "This storm is going to make for a dangerous and long week for people in parts of the southeastern U.S."

The AccuWeather scale is not based on wind intensity alone, like the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, but rather takes into consideration all weather factors, from wind to rain, storm surge, and severe thunderstorms, as well as impacts on the population and economy.

Porter urged people to not be lulled into any false sense of security because Debby is presently rated as a low-end hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

"Tragically, we have seen many situations in the past where people have not prepared to the level that matched the dangerous threats that exist from such a storm due to the limitations of the Saffir-Simpson scale, used by most meteorologists and the National Hurricane Center for decades, which only categorizes a tropical storm or hurricane by its wind intensity," Porter said.

Such storms have included Florence in the Carolinas in 2018, which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale but would have been a 4 on AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes as a result of the catastrophic flooding it produced.”

As Debby spins northward into Tuesday, much of the Florida Peninsula, southeastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina will be on the storm's eastern flank, which can be a trouble spot for tornadoes.

Waterspouts will be spawned in coastal areas. Bands of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms will increase over the peninsula and the northern part of the Florida mainland, regardless of the number of tornadoes and waterspouts.

Surf will build northward over Florida and along its northern Gulf coast, then later along the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. Swimmers will need to exercise extreme caution and obey local restrictions, as rip currents will increase in strength and number.

Enough rain will fall on Florida due to Debby to trigger slow travel with areas of urban and low-lying area flooding. Rainfall rates of several inches per hour can occur in extreme cases.

The intensity and track of Debby will determine the storm surge along the Florida Gulf coast. At this time, a water rise of up to 10-12 feet is projected along part of Apalachee Bay. A storm surge of 3-6 feet will be more common with locally higher levels to 10 feet along the balance of the Florida Peninsula's west coast.

Meanwhile, the storm surge along the upper Atlantic coast of Florida will generally be 1-3 feet with locally higher amounts.

Into much of the balance of this week, heavy rain, windy conditions and locally severe thunderstorms will slowly spread north along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern U.S.

Debby to re-emerge in Atlantic, possibly strengthen 2nd time

The slow movement of the storm will result in considerable time over land, which will cause Debby to lose wind intensity later Monday and Monday night. Debby will likely emerge over the Atlantic somewhere along the Georgia coast on Tuesday.

Widespread wind gusts of strong tropical storm force with some gusts to hurricane force will occur from northern Florida to the Carolina coast. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Debby is 120 mph along the shores of the Big Bend of Florida, near where the eye of the storm first arrives on the coast.

The strain on trees in the region will be significant, especially in areas where the soil was saturated prior to Debby's arrival. With this in mind, regional power outages are likely.

In some areas where the power is out, there may be no means of keeping cool and refrigerating food during cleanup operations for days in the wake of the storm.

"Steering breezes, which will guide Debby slowly but steadily along through the weekend, are forecast to weaken early this week, and that will create a big problem along the southern Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "Should Debby stall along the Carolina coast early week, there is the potential for excess rainfall that can lead to major flooding."

The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for the Carolina and Georgia coast is 32 inches. This rainfall estimate is based on slow movement. Should Debby completely stall or loop over the region, rainfall amounts may be significantly higher, and much heavier rain may also fall farther inland over Georgia and the Carolinas.

On the Atlantic coast, because of Debby's anticipated slow forward speed, coastal cities such as Charleston, South Carolina, and part of the Savannah, Georgia, area may face significant flooding from the combination of torrential rain and storm surge. A coastal water level rise of 6-10 feet is forecast along portions of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

"While the wind impact of this storm will be significant and dangerous, especially near the area where Debby makes its first U.S. landfall in Florida, this storm may end up being remembered for water dangers, especially in the Carolinas, due to significant storm surge and major flooding, which can even become a catastrophic flooding disaster in some places, if heavy rain bands persist over the same places for days in a row," Porter said. "Tragically, 85% or more of the direct fatalities from tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in recent years as a result of these water dangers – being prepared and taking action, not underestimating all of the storm’s impacts, truly can save lives.”

Wind, rain and surf conditions will increase along the Carolinas to southeastern Virginia beginning on Monday or Tuesday with dangerous rip currents, storm surge flooding and beach erosion that may last for two to four days, depending on Debby's forward speed and intensity.

Should steering breezes remain steady due to a dip in the jet stream in the Northeast, the system may be pushed enough to be drawn north along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts or possibly farther offshore over the Atlantic.

"Either way, there is the potential for the system to regain strength over the Atlantic early this week after its land interaction with Florida," DaSilva said.

From mid- to late week, tropical moisture may interact with a non-tropical storm in the Northeast. That interaction may result in excessive rainfall and flooding well north and west, away from or removed from the tropical feature itself.

Even if Debby stays to the south, seas and surf will build along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts this week.

Super-charged hurricane season anticipated

AccuWeather has not wavered from its prediction of a super-charged hurricane season for 2024 since this past winter.

Record-setting Category 5 Hurricane Beryl demonstrated the concern that AccuWeather's team of experts has about the potential energy available to the extremely warm Atlantic waters.

As dry air diminishes and the effects of La Niña unfold late this summer and fall, great numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are forecast, along with the likelihood of additional storms that intensify rapidly like Beryl did.

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