What are the odds?

With gambling at an all-time high around the country, this is a good time to check the odds on some things we’ll be facing in 2024. (The odds are mine. Mea culpa.)

2 to 1 it won’t be Biden vs Trump in November. With a nod to Maxwell Anderson’s lyrics, “It’s a long, long while from February to November.” Lot’s of things can happen between now and then.

First off, 62% of voters in the country don’t want either Biden or Trump, two feckless and very unpopular old men. A guy accosted me at a party last week: “You mean to tell me in a country of over 330 million people, we can’t find better candidates than those two clowns. It’s a travesty.”

But not to worry. The smart money says at least one, maybe both will fall by the wayside. Conspiracy theories abound. Trump will be waylaid by the courts or left off state ballots or both. Nikki Haley and third-party candidates are waiting in the wings. Biden will delay until late summer, then turn things over to a prominent state governor — say Gavin Newsom (California) or Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan).

TRECKER

I have a whole file full of “what ifs.” And it’s only February.

Better than even money Republicans will hold serve in Florida. It’s almost, but not quite, a sure thing. Gov. DeSantis is back on the job full time, irritated with his failure to dethrone Trump and more determined than ever to drive home his conservative policies. He will succeed.

How about the locals? Love it or hate it, the GOP will remain in full control. I’m talking about city councils and county commissions, particularly those in Southwest Florida. Alfie Oakes? Will he continue to call the shots? It’s a coin toss.

5 to 1 against any improvement in climate control. The odds are very long. Globally, petroleum production is hitting all-time highs and coal usage continues to grow in China, India and most Third World countries with no end in sight. EV sales are tanking in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Climate conferences produce non-binding promises that are never kept, as nations struggle to gain some semblance of wellbeing. Cutting greenhouse emissions is low on almost everyone’s priority list. Avoiding nuclear war is crucial; cutting CO2 emissions is not.

8 to 1 against a resolution of the border crisis. Illegal migrants continue to pour in — up to 10,000 a day — sucking up taxpayer dollars to house and feed them. So-called bipartisan agreements won’t even begin to stop the flow.

Expect a huge expansion of immigration courts in 2024. (Miami is said to have 261,000 cases pending, the largest docket in the country.) No one expects many migrants to be shipped home. Most will remain here, underwritten by federal taxes.

1 to 3 on local charity coming through again. If ever there was a sure thing in Southwest Florida, this is it. The Naples Winter Wine Festival leads the way, this year being no exception, and at least nine other major charities will follow in the months ahead. Much of the largesse will go to needy children. The generosity of the wealthy never ceases to amaze.

Super Bowl LVIII. More money will be wagered here than on any other sporting event in America. Everybody wants a piece of the action. Both the self-styled experts and the folks who know nothing about football are ready to plunk down their money. Me? I’m betting on San Francisco to cover the spread, and I’m going low on the over/under.

How about you? ¦

— Dave Trecker is a chemist and retired Pfizer executive living in Florida.

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