The Farm Bill Expired and It Could Cause Dairy Prices to Skyrocket

Here's what happens now.

On Sept. 30, the U.S. Farm Bill quietly expired, and it could place agricultural, environmental, and nutrition programs in jeopardy.

Technically, the Farm Bill (a $1.5 trillion federal legislation package ) expired in 2018 but has been surviving thanks to a five-year legislative package to ensure farmers have access to everything from crop insurance to disaster relief, and so the general public continued to have access to food assistance programs like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

Now that there is no new bill in place, everyone who benefits from the bill faces an uncertain future. Here's what you need to know.

What is the Farm Bill and why does it matter?

The Farm Bill covers many programs that impact farmers, rural communities, and consumers across the nation. As the Congressional Research Service (CRS) explains, The Farm Bill is typically renewed about every five years. Since the 1930s, Congress has enacted 18 iterations of farm bills.

"Farm bills traditionally have focused on farm commodity program support for a handful of staple commodities — corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, peanuts, dairy, and sugar," the CRS shared. "Farm bills have become increasingly expansive in nature since 1973, when a nutrition title was first included. Other prominent additions since then include horticulture and bioenergy titles and expansion of conservation, research, and rural development titles."

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Importantly, it noted that "Without reauthorization, some farm bill programs expire, such as the nutrition assistance and farm commodity support programs." However, it noted that some programs have permanent layers of protection, including crop insurance.

The CRS added that the broad nature of the farm bill tends to bring together support from "sometimes conflicting interests for policies that individually might have greater difficulty achieving majority support in the legislative process." A wide array of groups are now involved in the bill, including "national farm groups, commodity associations, state organizations, nutrition and public health officials, and advocacy groups representing conservation, recreation, rural development, faith-based interests, local food systems, and organic production."

And, as Modern Farmer explained, the bill usually includes billions — with a B — in subsidies to farmers. And all of it is now in limbo.

The immediate impact on farmers

For farmers, the bill's expiration brings lots of uncertainty, particularly around disaster relief, which is of greater importance in the wake of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton. And, as Modern Farmer additionally pointed out, while elements like crop insurance are safeguarded, others that aren't will revert back to their original introduction to the farm bill — which means they may be severely outdated. That includes specific crop subsidies and dairy support programs, which will expire at the end of 2024. This, in turn, means dairy farmers will get far less support and could cause what the American Farm Bureau Federation called a "Dairy Cliff" that will see dairy prices skyrocket in 2025. As the federation explained, dairy producers can receive payments under the Dairy Margin Coverage program, which compensates them for keeping margins low.

The biggest issue may be the lack of clarity on what will happen in 2025. Sam Kieffer, the vice president of public policy for the American Farm Bureau Federation, stated, "Those businesses, those farms, are already talking about financing for the next year, and there's no certainty right now."

Where consumers will feel the pinch

For consumers, the biggest issue is the potential for higher food prices and reduced access to essential nutrition programs. While the dairy industry is particularly vulnerable, other agricultural sectors could see price increases if farmers are forced to scale back production due to uncertainty over subsidies. According to Modern Farmer , other USDA programs will cease to exist without reauthorization , including programs that support organic farmers , farm-to-food bank assistance , and certain agricultural research, including citrus disease research, which is increasingly important following a rash of citrus greening and pests in 2024 that caused orange juice prices to skyrocket in early 2024. The Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership also noted the bill's expiration could have serious consequences for hunters and anglers, noting that if the Farm Bill doesn't get extended, it could spell disaster for land conservation.

"Every day – or year – that goes by without a new Farm Bill, our nation’s ability to conserve habitat and increase sportsmen’s access through The Conservation Reserve Program and the Voluntary Public Access and Habitat Incentive Program will suffer," Andrew Schmidt, the director of government affairs for Pheasants Forever and Quail Forever, shared in a statement. "Right now, our opportunity to prioritize agriculture and conservation is greater than ever, as is the risk of letting partisan politics prevent us from supporting our farmers, ranchers, and private landowners with the tools and resources they need to put conservation on the ground."

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And though SNAP, a program that supports more than 40 million low-income people in the U.S., will continue as it's funded separately, cuts to the program are still on the table if the Farm Bill gets reauthorized. Part of the political stalemate that caused the bill to expire without reauthorization were Republican-proposed cuts to SNAP (which has been a part of the Farm Bill since 1973) that Democrats refused to sign off on.

“I’ve actually been involved in six farm bills and led on three of them, and this has been the most frustrating time,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Michigan), who also chairs the U.S. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, shared with the Michigan Advance . “Because it’s so much more partisan than usual and particularly around food assistance.”

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan) echoed this frustration, also telling the Michigan Advance , “This was the thing that was so hard about last week, is that the Farm Bill draft in the House had a bunch of bills that I care about, and I voted against it. Because they just slashed food assistance — they slashed SNAP, so food stamps, all kinds of agricultural programs for our farmers markets, school lunch programs, you name it … So I couldn’t vote for it. I think that it will not pass muster; those kinds of things will not make it into law — most importantly because we have Debbie Stabenow as the chairwoman of the Senate Ag Committee, and she’s absolutely not going to stand for that.”

So, what's next?

The upcoming presidential and general election is clearly a factor in many politicians' redicince to commit to any decision that could be viewed as controversial. However, Congress has until the end of the year to push through a bill or a short-term continuing resolution that will avoid that "Dairy Cliff."

In early September, more than 300 farm groups came together to co-sign a letter to House and Senate leaders, which reads in part, "Given the enormous challenges facing production agriculture — including a farm economy that has taken a downward spiral — it is imperative Congress act before year’s end to strengthen farm policy for America’s farmers." The group added, "Failing to reauthorize a Farm Bill without meaningful investments in commodity programs and crop insurance, or settling for a simple extension of current law, would leave thousands of family farms with no options to continue producing for this nation in 2025 and beyond."

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