Three Reasons Why: Arguments for and against TCU’s win over SMU in rivalry game

It’s time for the Battle of the Iron Skillet edition of Three Reasons Why as TCU prepares for its pivotal rivalry game with the SMU Mustangs.

This is one of the final battles between the two crosstown rivals for the foreseeable future as the rivalry will be indefinitely paused after next season’s matchup at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

That only increases the pressure on both teams to leave Saturday with a win. Both teams endured disappointing home losses with SMU (2-1) dropping an ugly game to BYU while the Horned Frogs (2-1) let UCF storm back from a 21-point deficit in TCU’s Big 12 opener last Saturday.

Here’s three reasons why TCU will bounce back in the rivalry game or fall to 2-2:

Three reasons why TCU will beat SMU

1. Sonny Dykes: The Battle for the Iron Skillet could simply be renamed the Sonny Dykes invitational due to the success Dykes has had in the rivalry. Dykes has won the last four rivalry games, two at SMU and two with TCU. He out-coached Gary Patterson when he was with the Mustangs and then when he arrived in Fort Worth, it was clear that the Horned Frogs were in a different league than SMU.

Even last year when TCU went a disappointing 5-7, one of those victories was a commanding 34-17 win over a SMU team that finally broke through and won a conference championship. Whichever team is coached by Dykes in the rivalry often has a great shot at winning.

2. Josh Hoover: It’s been overshadowed some by last week’s defeat, but TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is playing at an elite level right now. Hoover has thrown over 1,022 yards, eight touchdowns and most importantly no interceptions as he’s posted a quarterback rating of 83.1 according to ESPN. That ranks No. 15 in the nation and it’s not a stretch to say Hoover is playing like a top-20 quarterback nationally.

Meanwhile SMU’s two quarterbacks, Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings, have underwhelmed and SMU made a quarterback change to Jennings after the BYU game. Having the better quarterback always gives you a chance for victory.

3. The front seven: After being worn down by UCF in the second half, TCU’s front seven defenders on the defensive line and at linebacker will have a great opportunity to bounce back against SMU’s offensive line. While Dykes said that the Mustangs’ o-line is made up of former four-stars, SMU lost its two best offensive linemen to Oklahoma and Missouri. So far, SMU hasn’t been able to replace them and the unit has taken a step back.

Linebackers like Namdi Obiazor and Johnny Hodges have had a lot of success in this rivalry and they’ll need to have a big game against the Mustangs’ rushing attack. They’re more than capable of producing.

Three reasons why TCU will fall in the rivalry game

1. Lack of balance: The Horned Frogs are officially in the concerned stage when it comes to the running game. Aside from a good half against Stanford, TCU hasn’t been able to run the ball anywhere near its standards as the team currently ranks near the bottom of the Big 12 in rushing. It may be hard for TCU to get the run game going against SMU as the Mustangs are only allowing 105.3 yards per game and only three yards per carry.

As brilliant as Hoover is, the UCF game showed that an inability to run the ball could doom TCU no matter how well Hoover plays.

2. A running QB: So far the best way to exploit TCU’s defense is to have a mobile quarterback. Between KJ Jefferson and Stanford quarterback Ashton Daniels, TCU is allowing quarterbacks to rush for over 65 yards per game. That’s not a sustainable number if the defense wants to be successful going forward. Dual-threat quarterbacks are difficult to handle because they can make plays out of the pocket and also gain another blocker on a designed quarterback runs.

You can expect a heavy dose of that from Jennings Saturday and if TCU isn’t prepared, Jennings’ mobility could help SMU make enough plays to secure an upset.

3. Closing ability: It’s been awhile since we’ve seen TCU pull out a close game with an evenly matched opponent. The Horned Frogs won by seven against the Cardinal, but Stanford hit a late field goal with 37 seconds left to make the score closer than indicated and it was evident that TCU was the better team. We know TCU can win games in a blowout fashion, but the Horned Frogs are still learning how to win these close battles after the 2022 team excelled in them.

TCU is 0-4 in the last four games decided by six points or less dating back to last season. Maybe the Horned Frogs will win this one going away, but if it’s a close game in the fourth quarter TCU still hasn’t shown an an ability to finish those games over the last 15 games. If it’s close late, that may be an advantage for SMU.