After an emotional win over Texas Tech on Saturday, there’s no lull in TCU’s schedule as the Horned Frogs hit the road to face Baylor in Waco.
A few weeks ago, things looked bleak for both programs, but with the Bears and Horned Frogs both winning two straight games, there’s more intrigue in this rivalry matchup. TCU can lock up a bowl bid with a win while the Bears (4-4, 2-3) would be one win away from qualifying for the postseason with a win.
There are also bigger stakes at play for both teams. The Horned Frogs could still find a way to sneak into the Big 12 title game as TCU currently sits at fifth place in the standing behind two undefeated teams (BYU, Iowa State) and two teams with one league loss (Colorado, Kansas State). The Horned Frogs would need some help, but the possibility is still there.
Meanwhile for Baylor, many assumed that the Bears would part ways with Dave Aranda, but if Aranda can pick up a third straight win it could be enough to buy him another year or two in Waco. Here’s four things to know about Aranda and the Bears:
A breakout QB
The Bears were expecting Toledo transfer DeQuann Finn to provide a boost to a mediocre off-season, but Finn’s only played in three games this season which opened the door for Sawyer Robertson. Robertson, a Mississippi State transfer that arrived in Waco last season, might be the most improved player in the Big 12.
Last season while backing up Blake Shapen, Robertson didn’t look like a Power 4 starter. He only completed 56.4% of his 117 passing attempts and threw four interceptions and just two touchdowns. Fast forward a year later and Robertson looks like a different player, as he’s completing 60% of his passes while throwing for 1,541 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. Robertson is also effective as a scrambler as he’s rushed for over 200 yards and four touchdowns.
Robertson will enter Saturday’s game with a lot of confidence as he’s had a quarterback rating of at least 80 in three straight games thanks in large part to his 11 touchdown passes during that stretch. It’ll be another test for the TCU secondary.
Running back committee
The Bears don’t have a star running back like some of the Big 12 teams TCU has faced this season, but Baylor does have plenty of options it can lean on. Bryce Washington leads the pack in carries and yards with 380 yards on 70 carries. The freshman averages a respectable 5.4 yards per attempt and looks like a promising building block for Baylor’s future offense.
Dawson Pendergrass is a bigger back at 6-foot-2, 218 pounds, but he can create chunk plays at any time like he did against Oklahoma State. He out-rushed Ollie Gordon with 142 yards on just six carries and it was his 55-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter that iced the game.
Finally, there’s Richard Reese, a name TCU fans should be familiar with as this will be Reese’ third time facing TCU. Reese hasn’t been able to live up to his freshman season where he rushed for 962 yards in 2022, but as a third running back he’s still a quality option. Thanks to the depth in the backfield the Bears have improved their rushing yards per game average by nearly 60 yards and Baylor is averaging five yards per carry compared to just 3.3 last season.
Balance at receiver
Similar to the running backs, Baylor doesn’t have a standout receiver, but it does have a plethora of reliable pass catchers for Robertson to rely on. Six Bears have at least 12 catches on the season led by Josh Cameron. Cameron leads the Bears in receptions, (25), yards (365) and touchdowns (seven). Ashtyn Hawkins is right behind him with 346 yards and three touchdowns on the season.
Hal Presley is another receiver with at least 300 yards on the year. Outside of wide receiver the Bears also landed Ole Miss transfer Michael Trigg to replace current TCU tight end Drake Dabney. After playing sparingly at USC and Ole Miss, Trigg has finally found the role he’s desired as he’s set a career-high in yards with 227.
Surprisingly, veteran receiver Monaray Baldwin has seen his role diminish greatly this season. Baldwin had at least 550 yards in back-to-back seasons, but only has 12 catches for 158 yards despite appearing in eight games this season. Baldwin has game-breaking speed and could be an X-factor on Saturday.
Small defensive improvement?
Baylor had one of the worst defenses in the country last season as the Bears allowed over 33 points a game last season. In the second season under Matt Powledge, Baylor has shown modest improvement as the Bears have gone from having the 116th scoring defense to 79th. Far from great, but the Bears are allowing one less touchdown a game and progress is progress.
The Bears took the biggest stride as a defense against the run. Opponents averaged close to 185 yards on the ground and five yards per carry, but those numbers have dropped to 149 and 3.7. It’s not great, but the Bears are now making opposing running backs work harder for their yards.
With all that being said, Baylor has allowed at least 28 points in five of its six Big 12 games including 43 points to Iowa State. The Bears have some talent on defense led by linebackers Matt Jones and Keaton Thomas, but this is still a defense TCU should be able to score points on.
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