It’s impressive how quickly TCU has been blown off, underestimated, and while not totally forgotten, ignored.
Including the two defectors to the SEC, TCU is still the only Big 12 school to play for a College Football Playoff national title, and it still holds the distinction of being the last program to beat Michigan.
But this year, the new parts from the Pac-12 are fun and shiny.
Everyone’s picking Utah and Arizona to be players in the Big 12 title chase, Arizona State has the big city market to generate interest, and Colorado under Coach Prime is certainly a thing.
Oklahoma State is supposed to be a favorite, as is Kansas State, and Kansas is supposed to be fun, and UCF, BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati are all improved and have some interest and momentum, and …
TCU should be strong enough to send a polite reminder to everyone that it’s still in the Big 12, and it’s still dangerous.
On an even-odd year kick, the Horned Frogs finished 5-7 in 2019, 2021, and then 2023. It had a winning season in 2018, 2020, and again, TCU played for the national championship in 2022.
The program has 13 seasons of ten or more wins since 2000, that’s more than Texas. Sonny Dykes and his staff haven’t forgotten how to coach, there’s a ton coming in from the transfer portal, and remember, this year the Big 12 champion is almost a lock to be in the new College Football Playoff no matter what.
TCU is the only current Big 12 team to make the CFP. Don’t be totally stunned if it doubles up that total after this year.
TCU Football Preview 2024: Offense
- The offense was still interesting. It wasn’t nearly as wonderful as the 2022 version - at least the passing game didn’t click quite as well - but it moved fast, was great on third downs, and averaging 31 points per game wasn’t bad.
Now the coaching staff will try piecing it all together with a ton of new transfers, but the backfield should still be in place from last year.
- Leading rusher Emani Bailey is gone after running for over 1,200 yards last season, but there’s a strong 1-2 punch that should be able to handle the work. Cam Cook is a quick back who got in plenty of work, and former Alabama transfer Trey Sanders came up with six scores.
The quarterback situation should be set - maybe. Vanderbilt transfer Ken Seals is a decent passer who can run the attack, but with Chandler Morris - who was second on the team in rushing - gone to North Texas, sophomore Josh Hoover should get the first look after leading the way with over 2,200 yards and 15 scores. He has to cut down on the picks, but he can throw.
- The offensive line is loaded with transfers. Horned Frog veteran Mike Nichols is back and now likely in a starting role at right tackle. The other four likely starters are new, and they’re really, really good.
Bless Harris is an NFL-caliber talent from Florida State at left tackle, and Cade Bennett is a smashing run blocker from San Diego State at guard. Alabama’s James Brockermeyer should be a factor at center, and Louisiana Tech’s Carson Bruno and Texas A&M’s Remington Strickland will push for another guard spot.
Another transfer will be a very, very big deal for the receiving corps. Eric McAlister averaged 19.5 yards per catch for Boise State over the last two seasons, and he’ll fit with TCU’s leading receiver Savion Williams and slot man JP Richardson filling out a terrific group.
Baylor transfer tight end Drake Dabney will come up with a whole lot of grabs.
TCU Football Preview 2024: Defense
- The defense is still a work in progress. There was just enough of a pass rush to be disruptive, but there weren’t enough takeaways and stopping the run was a problem. There aren’t as many transfers are there are for the offensive side, but the ones coming in will matter.
- The two new linebackers will tackle everything. This might be one of the team’s bigger strengths with Kaleb Elarms-Orr (Cal) in the middle and Devean Deal (Tulane) working with all-around defensive star Namdi Obiozor to make a ton of of big things happen.
Bud Clark is a good-tackling safety who can attack the ball when it’s in the air, and Nevada’s Richard Toney is coming in for another safety job after making 67 tackles with two pick-sixes last year.
The corner combination of Avery Helm and Utah’s JaTravis Broughton should win its share of battles, but the secondary gets roasted in this D.
- Outside of Notre Dame end Nana Osafo-Mensah, the TCU defensive front is all from last year’s front three. Losing NT Damonic Williams to the transfer portal is a killer, but there’s size with 310-pound Tymon Mitchell taking over on the inside along with 315-pound Caleb Fox. 275-pound Paul Oyewale is a veteran end who needs to get int he backfield even more.
Key To The TCU Football Season
Take back the turnover margin. The magic of the 2022 season had a whole lot to do with forcing breaks. The offense turned it over 16 times in the 15 games, and eight of them came in the CFP and Big 12 Championship - so there were just eight turnovers in 12 regular season games. Meanwhile, the defense took it away 22 times.
Last year the 19 turnovers in 12 games were a problem. Even bigger, TCU 4-1 when coming up with multiple takeaways, and 1-6 when it didn’t.
TCU Key Player
Bless Harris, OT Sr. A star transfer for Florida State, Harris came in from Lamar and was supposed to be a star for the good Seminole line. He got hurt, he missed almost all of the the season, and now he’s TCU’s new left tackle.
If he’s right and plays up to his upside, the 6-5, 326-pounder will be the key man on what should be a stronger offensive front.
TCU Football Top Transfer, Biggest Transfer Loss
Top Transfer In: Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB Jr. You’ve got to be doing something right if you’re producing 92 tackles as a top linebacker under that defensive-minded Cal coaching staff. Elams-Orr can move, and he’ll fit nicely in the middle of the Horned Frog linebacking corps.
Top Transfer Out: Damonic Williams, DT Jr. TCU did a great job overall in the transfer portal, but this one stings. The Horned Frogs lost a 320-pound defensive tackle who can move. Williams made 60 tackles with 4.5 sacks in his first two years in Fort Worth, and now he’ll be applying his trade at Oklahoma.
TCU Key Game
at Utah, Oct. 19 Forget about trying to get the groove back after a dud of a 2023 - go be good enough to make a run at the Big 12 title, TCU. To do that, beating Utah after getting a week off to prepare would be everything.
If the Horned Frogs are good enough to win in Salt Lake City against their former Mountain West and WAC brother, they’ll be good enough to beat anyone else on the slate - most of the tough games are at home.
10 Best TCU Football Players
1. Namdi Obiazo, LB Sr. 2. Kaleb Elarms-Orr, LB Sr. 3. Bless Harris, OT Sr. 4. Eric McAlister, WR Jr. 5. Cade Bennett, OG Jr. 6. Caleb Fox, DT Sr. 7. Savion Williams, WR Sr. 8. Josh Hoover, QB Soph. 9. JP Richardson, WR Sr. 10. Bud Clark, S Jr.
- Penalties: TCU 74 for 643 yards, Opponents 59 for 466 yards
TCU Football 2024 Win Total Prediction: What to Expect This Season
If 2022 was crazy one way, and 2023 was underwhelming the other way, 2024 should be somewhere in between.
The tone was set early last year by giving away the Colorado game, it had the Texas win and lost it, and in all, there were four very, very close losses that could’ve gone the other way.
This time around, the Horned Frogs get a little bit of a break with the road games.
Starting at Stanford won’t be easy, and playing at SMU might be way more dangerous than anyone would like, but Kansas is sort of a neutral site game - it’s being played in Kansas City.
There’s a week off before going to Utah, and the last two road dates at Baylor and Cincinnati are against teams that didn’t go bowling last year.
There’s no Kansas State on the slate, and missing Iowa State and West Virginia isn’t bad. Even better, the showdowns against Oklahoma State and Arizona are in Amon G.
Here’s the problem - LIU is the only sure-thing win.
Of course, TCU will win its share of games, but it would’ve been nice to have a few breather wins to build off of, and those aren’t there.
Set The TCU Win Total At … 6.5
Likely Wins: LIU
50/50 Games: Arizona, at Baylor, at Cincinnati, Houston, at Kansas, Oklahoma State, at SMU, at Stanford, Texas Tech, UCF, at Utah
Likely Losses: There aren’t any apparent sure-thing losses
2024 TCU Football Schedule
Aug 30 at Stanford Sept 7 LIU Sept 14 UCF Sept 21 at SMU Sept 28 at Kansas Oct 4 Houston Oct 12 OPEN DATE Oct 19 at Utah Oct 26 Texas Tech Nov 2 at Baylor Nov 9 Oklahoma State Nov 16 OPEN DATE Nov 23 Arizona Nov 30 at Cincinnati
Missing: Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, West Virginia
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