Warren Buffett has yet to weigh in on the 2024 campaign, even as an electoral battle rages in the Oracle of Omaha’s backyard that could put either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump over the top. Buffett’s silence is unusual, though, since he has been a vocal supporter of Democrats in previous contests—and so, too, is the set of circumstances that have made Omaha the potential deciding factor in choosing the next U.S. president.
While Omaha is located in Nebraska, a deeply red state that is not considered a battleground in the same way as Pennsylvania or Georgia, one pocket of it is very much in play. That’s because of a political quirk that means the Cornhusker State does not follow the vast majority of other states (Maine is the only other exception) in awarding all of its electoral college votes with a winner-take-all approach.
Instead, since 1992, two of Nebraska’s five electoral votes have gone to the winner of the popular vote, with an additional vote assigned to the winner in each of the state’s three congressional districts.
While the first and third districts lean heavily Republican, the state’s second district —which consists of Omaha and its surroundings—is up for grabs. The district voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Barack Obama in 2008, which didn’t gain much attention when both Democratic candidates won the electoral college handily.
This year, however, there’s a plausible scenario in which the single electoral vote tips the balance. If Harris carries the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin but loses to Trump in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and a Republican-leaning Maine district, the race could be tied 269-269 and head to the House of Representatives. That’s unless Harris wins Nebraska’s second district, which would get her to the magical number of 270.
That permutation hasn’t been lost on either party . Trump allies have tried to change Nebraska law to implement winner-take-all rules. Democratic voters in the area, meanwhile, are putting up signs that simply feature blue dots to underline how a single electoral vote could be the difference.
So far, though, Omaha’s most famous resident has yet to weigh in on the 2024 election, despite becoming involved in previous contests.
The Oracle goes silent
The 94-year-old Buffett’s silence this election season is a relatively new development for a business leader with a history of backing Democrats.
The son of a four-term Republican congressman, Buffett began to support liberal causes dating back to the civil rights movement. He’s donated millions in support of abortion rights and has helped raise money for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, appearing onstage with the latter multiple times during her 2016 presidential campaign.
In 2011, the Berkshire Hathaway chairman famously wrote a New York Times op-ed titled “Stop Coddling the Superrich.” He lambasted America’s tax code for making his secretary pay more on a percentage basis than ultrawealthy individuals, like himself, whose fortune is largely tied up in stock.
Buffett has opposed other progressive movements, however. In 2015, he wrote in the Wall Street Journal that ideas like expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit were better solutions to income inequality than raising the federal minimum wage. Last year, his annual letter to shareholders appeared to take aim at President Joe Biden and other Democratic lawmakers for attacking share buybacks, warning investors that a complete opponent of such repurchases was either an “economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue.”
“I’m a Democrat, but I’m not a card-carrying Democrat,” Buffett told CNBC in 2020, saying he had sometimes voted for Republicans.
According to Federal Election Commission data , Buffett last made a political donation in November 2019, when he gave $106,500 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. He also contributed $2,800 to Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly’s successful Senate campaign that year.
This time around, however, don’t expect Buffett to shell out cash for Harris—or put a “blue dot” in his front yard.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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