Last week's NFL slate gave us a few exciting matchups.
Kirk Cousins had an unbelievable performance against Tampa Bay , the Vikings beat the Jets in London — handing New York a loss that led to Robert Saleh's firing — and Baltimore - Cincinnati went into a thrilling overtime.
Week 6 could shape up to be just as interesting — especially with the Ravens coming off that emotional win and then with the Cowboys trying to get their third W in a row.
Let's dive into what I'm wagering on for NFL Week 6.
(All times ET)
SUNDAY, OCT. 13
COMMANDERS @ RAVENS (1 p.m., CBS)
Sometimes, the oddsmakers will give the public a clear sign that one team is better than the other. The Ravens -6.5 is a number that jumped out to me as that message.
The Commanders are 4-1 with one of the best offenses in the NFL, and they’ve rightfully been given their flowers for their fast start. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is leading that offense to an efficiency ranking that sits at No. 3 after five weeks. They are balanced as a squad, ranking fourth in passing and fourth in rushing.
But it's also worth noting that the defenses they've faced during the win streak rank in the bottom half of the NFL. Nonetheless, Washington is the talk of the NFL after five weeks.
While the Commanders have the better record in this matchup, the Ravens have the better team. Baltimore is 3-2 but has played the Chiefs , Cowboys, Bills and Bengals. That's a legit schedule against some of the heavy hitters in the sport.
The Ravens rank second in overall team DVOA, with the top offense in the league. They are balanced, with Derrick Henry rushing the ball and Lamar Jackson using his legs and arm to generate offense. This Baltimore offense is facing a Commanders defense that’s ranked 24th in DVOA.
The Ravens will have a clear advantage with their ability to move the ball.
Again, Baltimore is just the better team and has been playing good football. And the oddsmakers are telling you clearly with this number that they believe the Ravens are going to win this game by a touchdown or more.
When a number is set differently than the public perception of a matchup, I feel inclined to side with oddsmakers. Give me the Ravens to cover.
PICK: Ravens (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points
CHARGERS @ BRONCOS (4:05 p.m., CBS)
The Broncos are quietly above .500 after five games, with quarterback Bo Nix improving each week.
The Chargers are off a bye and getting healthy … I think. We will see who’s active for them when Sunday rolls around.
While this total is low, I’m going with the Under in this AFC West matchup.
Yes, Denver's offense has improved with Nix, but overall, it’s still struggling to move the ball. Only 6% of Broncos' drives end in touchdowns. Then, only 53% of their drives result in first-down gains, which is the second-worst in the league. They punt on 24% of their drives; again, second-worst in the league.
Guess who is worse than the Broncos? Yep, the Chargers.
The Bolts only generate a first down on 52% of drives and punt on 26% of them. Now, it might be fair to blame those stats on Justin Herbert being injured and on both tackles being down. But they do not have explosive options at receiver and that does hurt the offense.
On the flip side, both of these defenses are fantastic.
L.A. is second in DVOA and Denver is fourth. Both teams are first and second in defensive points allowed, both allowing under 15 points a game. With how both of these offenses operate, combined with the strength of their defenses, taking the Under here is the right call.
PICK: Under 35.5 points scored by both teams combined
LIONS @ COWBOYS (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App )
The Lions are off a bye and I expect them to light up the scoreboard this weekend in Dallas.
The Cowboys defense ranks 23rd in efficiency this season, and they will be without both of their All-Pro defensive pass rushers. They are also down their two backup edge rushers, with rookie Marshawn Kneeland injuring his knee in the win over the Steelers.
Pittsburgh was incapable of taking advantage of the defensive injuries on the Dallas side. However, and to the dismay of the Cowboys, the Lions are ready to do just that.
Detroit's offensive line is legit, and the Lions have tons of weapons that will get open if given time. Also, I expect the Lions to have some things rolling after the bye.
PICK: Lions team total Over 27.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @ GeoffSchwartz .
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