Why the northern lights were visible in Colorado despite forecast

DENVER ( KDVR ) — The aurora borealis was seen across the country in October, but if you were tracking where you could view the northern lights, much of the prediction didn’t include states below Wyoming.

According to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration space weather forecaster, there’s a reason for that.

NOAA tracks space weather systems. One system the administration specifically tracks is the projected location and intensity of the aurora borealis and where people may be able to see it, which is shown above the red view line.

Here’s an example of one of the forecasts from Oct. 3:

During this system, many of NOAA’s models showed the view line of the aurora borealis ending halfway through Wyoming. Nebraska was the furthest state that might see the northern lights.

On Oct. 9, NOAA provided an update and said the aurora borealis could be seen in the northern part of Colorado near the Wyoming border. However, after reports of the northern lights being spotted all over Colorado , including some of the most southern parts, the view line evidently didn’t show the whole picture.

According to Shawn Dahl with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, that’s because of the way NOAA tracks the aurora borealis.

Why northern lights were seen past NOAA’s view line

While strong solar storms triggered auroras farther south, these systems weren’t in NOAA’s view line because, according to Dahl, the view line estimates the “mainstream” aurora.

Dahl said NOAA’s prediction was “spot on” but that view line mainly tracks the green colors lower in the atmosphere, which is why the aurora borealis view line didn’t include other areas across the country, like Colorado, that saw pink and red lights.

While the forecast didn’t show the entirety of the aurora, Dahl said changing the view line to track the pink and red colors is something NOAA is considering moving forward.

“That’s something that we’ll be discussing over time. It always takes time to change certain things, science that goes into that,” said Dahl.

While Dahl said changing the line is under consideration, auroras around the country aren’t necessarily a new sight.

“It’s nothing new. I think the green shimmering curtain of the aurora is mostly what people have seen in the past. So, many more people are seeing that red now because they’re out looking,” said Dahl. “I don’t know that people were looking because they didn’t know anything was going on in the past. I mean, these are the kinds of things we’re trying to figure out, and with the help of social scientists, maybe we’ll ration some of that out before we run off and try to change a model.”

Dahl said that before NOAA changes the view line, they need to do more research.

As for the time being, if you’re hoping to catch the next Aurora, Dahl said that if the G-scale shows a G3, viewers should expect the aurora to be significantly further south than the view line.

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