ST. LOUIS – A majority of “very likely” Missouri voters say they support ballot measures on sports betting and abortion access in the November general election.
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll used results from 850 “very likely” voters: 262 Democrats, 356 Republicans, and 232 independents or those affiliated with another political party. The survey was conducted on September 12-13.
Based on 2024 likely voter modeling, the pollsters weighted the data sets according to gender, education, age, race, party registration, and region. The poll’s margin of error (MOE) is +/- 3.3%.
Ten other states will have abortion on the ballot this November: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota.
Republican candidates lead Missouri races on November ballot: Poll Missouri Amendment 3: Abortion
Missouri outlaws almost all abortions. The proposed constitutional amendment would reinstate the constitutional right to abortion in Missouri, allowing the procedure up until the point of fetal viability, similar to the standards set under Roe v. Wade.
“Democrats support the abortion ballot measure, 90% to 7%, along with independents, 61% to 26%. Republicans oppose it, 50% to 32%,” Kimball said. “Women support the measure, 60% to 28%, while men support the measure, 54% to 33%.”
Younger voters support Amendment 3 in greater numbers, with over 60% of respondents ages 39 and under in favor of the bill.
The official ballot language is below.
Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference of that right presumed invalid;
- remove Missouri’s ban on abortion;
- allow regulation of reproductive health care to improve or maintain the health of the patient;
- require the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and
- allow abortion to be restricted or banned after Fetal Viability except to protect the life or health of the woman?
State governmental entities estimate no costs or savings, but unknown impact. Local governmental entities estimate costs of at least $51,000 annually in reduced tax revenues. Opponents estimate a potentially significant loss to state revenue.
Fair Ballot Language:
A “yes” vote establishes a constitutional right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortion and contraceptives, with any governmental interference of that right presumed invalid; removes Missouri’s ban on abortion; allows regulation of reproductive health care to improve or maintain the health of the patient; requires the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and allows abortion to be restricted or banned after Fetal Viability except to protect the life or health of the woman.
A “no” vote will continue the statutory prohibition of abortion in Missouri.
If passed, this measure may reduce local taxes while the impact to state taxes is unknown.
Office of the Missouri Secretary of State
Missouri Amendment 2: Sports betting
The amendment would establish a $500,000 license application and five-year renewal fees plus a 10% tax on the licensees adjusted gross gaming revenues.
Under the proposed initiative, at least $5 million annually in licensing fees and taxes would go toward problem gambling programs, with remaining tax revenues going toward elementary, secondary, and higher education.
Several neighboring states, including Illinois, Arkansas and Kansas, have already legalized sports betting. Without legalization, Missouri risks losing potential revenue from those who cross state borders to place bets.
“Men support the sports gambling measure at a higher rate than women: 59% to 46%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Support for the measure is at its biggest among the 30- to 39-year-old demographic, with 68.4% in favor. Support slowly drops by age group, eventually falling under 50% for the 60 to 69 and the over-70 demos.
The official ballot language is below.
Do you want to amend the Missouri Constitution to:
- allow the Missouri Gaming Commission to regulate licensed sports wagering including online sports betting, gambling boats, professional sports betting districts and mobile licenses to sports betting operators;
- restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21;
- allow license fees prescribed by the Commission and a 10% wagering tax on revenues received to be appropriated for education after expenses incurred by the Commission and required funding of the Compulsive Gambling Prevention Fund; and
- allow for the general assembly to enact laws consistent with this amendment?
State governmental entities estimate onetime costs of $660,000, ongoing annual costs of at least $5.2 million, and initial license fee revenue of $11.75 million. Because the proposal allows for deductions against sports gaming revenues, they estimate unknown tax revenue ranging from $0 to $28.9 million annually. Local governments estimate unknown revenue.
Fair Ballot Language:
A “yes” vote will amend the Missouri Constitution to permit licensed sports wagering regulated by the Missouri Gaming Commission and restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21. The amendment includes a 10% wagering tax on revenues received to be appropriated for educational institutions in Missouri.
A “no” vote will not amend the Missouri Constitution regarding licensed regulated sports wagering.
If passed, this measure will have no impact on taxes.
Office of the Missouri Secretary of State
Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Media conducted this poll. Review our methodology and data here . Nexstar Media provided the funding for this survey.
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