Watch to watch for in Colts at Packers

INDIANAPOLIS – Areas of interest in the Indianapolis Colts Sunday meeting with the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

*Kickoff: 1 p.m.

*Broadcast: FOX59.

*Spread: Colts by 3.

*History lesson, Part I: The Packers have won a club-record 11 straight home openers. That’s the NFL’s longest active streak. The next longest streak is three. Of course, Sunday is the first time during that stretch someone other than Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love will be Green Bay’s starting quarterback. Despite coach Matt LaFleur’s gamesmanship with Love and his sprained knee, Malik Willis is expected to make his fourth career start.

*History lesson, Part II: The Colts lead the overall series 23-21-1 and are 7-3 since their relocation in 1984. They exited with a 31-26 win in their most recent visit to Lambeau Field in 2016. Remember Jordan Todman’s game-opening 99-yard kickoff return?

Here’s a trivia nugget for you. Sunday marks the first time since 1997 a Colts vs. Packers game hasn’t involved Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers. The starting QBs in ’97: Brett Favre and Paul Justin. The 0-10 Colts whipped the 8-2 Packers 41-38 on Cary Blanchard’s 20-yard field goal as time expired.

*It’s about the QB: If you still need proof after all these years, consider the Packers were roughly a 4-point favorite when oddsmakers believed Love would start at quarterback and now are 3-point underdogs. At Lambeau Field. That touchdown-swing is massive.

And it’s all about Malik Willis in all likelihood making just the fourth start of his career. LaFleur has been coy by listing Love questionable even though he hasn’t practiced since spraining the MCL in his left knee in the opener in Brazil. Green Bay’s $220 million QB is expected to miss multiple games.

So, welcome to centerstage, Malik. He’s an absolute wild card.

Willis has started three games since the Tennessee Titans selected him in the third round of the 2022 draft and been ineffective. He’s completed 25-of-49 passes for 234 yards with no touchdowns, three interceptions and a 39.0 rating. He’s yet to throw for 100 yards in a game.

Further complicating matters for the Packers is that they acquired Willis on Aug. 26 when the Titans dumped him for a seventh-round pick.

While Willis shouldn’t threaten a depleted Colts secondary with his arm, he could do damage with his legs. In two seasons at Liberty, he rushed for 1,822 yards and 27 TDs.

*Secondary concerns: And about that depleted Colts secondary. Monday, Indy learned top outside corner JuJu Brents would miss extended time, perhaps the rest of the season, with a knee injury. Friday, strong safety Julian Blackmon was ruled out with a shoulder injury.

Just like that, two of the top three back-end players were out. It’s anybody’s guess how coordinator Gus Bradley will mix and match.

Our guess is top nickel corner Kenny Moore II slides outside and works opposite Jaylon Jones. In passing situations, Moore either stays outside with Chris Lammons or Samuel Womack III playing nickel, or Moore moves back to nickel with Womack or Dallis Flowers working outside.

None of the options are ideal, but that’s what happens when the depth is void of a legit veteran presence at corner or safety.

At safety, Nick Cross probably stays at free safety with either Rodney Thomas II or Ronnie Harrison Jr. replacing Blackmon at strong safety.

As we mentioned, the silver lining is Willis might not be capable of exploiting the patchwork secondary.

*Offensive consistency: The explosive plays generated by Anthony Richardson in the opener were impressive. He’s the first QB in the Indy era to deliver at least three completions of at least 50 yards. The 60-yarder to Alec Pierce was epic.

Now, Shane Steichen and coordinator Jim Bob Cooter need more consistency from Richardson and the rest of the offense. Richardson was an unacceptable 6-of-16 for 42 yards and one interception – that’s a 19.8 passer rating – excluding the shock plays. Too often he missed open receivers, including a pair to rookie AD Mitchell that might have been 29- and 70-yard TDs.

Also, the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor need to re-establish the run game. Taylor averaged just 3 yards with a long of 7 on his 16 carries against Houston. Richardson’s mobility is a strong threat (six carries, 56 yards, one TD), but Taylor has to be the catalyst.

One game isn’t a reliable barometer, so we’re withholding judgment. That also holds true for a Packer defense that yielded 144 rushing yards to Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley hit them with 109 yards and two TDs on 24 carries.

The lack of efficiency in the pass game and run game were major contributors to the Colts running just 43 offensive plays and having only 20 minutes of possession time. Yes, the quick-strike plays were factors, but so was the lack of rhythm.

The possible return of slot receiver Josh Downs should help in that area.

*Watch the film: While most of the attention will be on how Willis handles his fourth career start, it should be on Packers running back Josh Jacobs. He had a solid debut with Green Bay – 18 carries, 84 yards; two catches for 20 yards – and the best way to ease Willis’ burden is to lean on the run game. The Packers rushed for 163 total yards and averaged 7.8 per attempt, which was boosted by wideout Jayden Reed’s 33-yarder and Emanuel Wilson’s 46 yards on just four attempts.

“We’ve got to do a good job up front when we get the opportunity to rush (Willis), to really keep him in the pocket,’’ tackle DeForest Buckner said. “We’re expecting obviously a heavy run game, especially with what we put on film last week.

“They probably don’t want to put the game in Malik Willis’ hands.’’

In the opening loss to Houston, the Colts were committed to not allowing C.J. Stroud to go off. While the defense got to him for four sacks and “limited’’ his damage to 234 yards and two TDs, it was gashed for 213 rushing yards, including 159 from Joe Mixon.

Jacobs is a shade better than Mixon, and the league’s 2022 rushing champion (1,653 yards) and is capable of carrying a team. It’s worth noting the Raiders were 12-4 when Jacobs rushed for at least 100 yards and 13-2 when he had at least 25 carries.

Since the Raiders selected him with the 24 ^th overall pick in 2019, Jacobs ranks No. 2 in the league in rushing yards (5,629) and rushing first downs (290) and No. 3 in rushing TDs (46).

*And the winner is: Colts 24, Packers 17. We’ll keep this brief. The Colts still have tons of questions, but the Packers don’t have Jordan Love. If Indy can’t do enough to handle Malik Willis, this season can slip away rather quickly.

You can follow Mike Chappell on Twitter at @mchappell51.

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