GAME 1 PREVIEW: Florida Gators’ offense will pose challenge for Miami, but team has a lot of questions on other side of the ball

This month, CaneSport is taking a deeper dive inside Miami’s games this season, and today we have your breakdown of Game 1 at the University of Florida :

MIAMI AT FLORIDA GATORS, SAT. AUG. 31, GAINESVILLE, FLA. 3:30 PM, ABC TV

OVERVIEW

This will be the start of what, Miami fans hope, is a breakout year for the program with expectations set at right around 10 wins. And yes, the Hurricanes’ season opener against Florida will tell us a lot about this team’s strides. Both programs are seeking to reclaim their former glory after recent struggles – Miami hasn’t won more than eight games over the last six seasons, including two years with losing records, and the Gators are coming off three straight losing records including 5-7 last year. Also note that while the Canes have a wins over/under set at 9 or 9.5 this year depending on where you look, the Gators are set at 4.5 wins against a very difficult schedule . UF last had a 10-win season in 2019 (11-2), Miami has one 10-win season in the last 20 years (10-3 in 2017). So this is a very important game for both of these programs in a rivalry that dates back to 1938 and includes 56 games (Miami has a 29-27 record vs. UF all-time). The last time these teams met was in 2019 in Orlando, and Florida won that game, 24-20. With Mario Cristobal trying to get the Cane program back to double-digit wins, a loss in the opener would be viewed as a significant setback to UM’s 2024 aspirations. The early betting line from DraftKings has Miami favored by three points.

THE PERSONNEL

Miami’s top task will be having success on the defensive side of the ball. That’s because Florida’s strength is its offense, with a lot of weapons led by QB Graham Mertz (2,903 yards, 20 TDs, 3 INTs in 11 games, SEC-best 72.9 completion percentage). The former Wisconsin transfer is joined by RB Montrell Johnson, Jr., who had 817 yards and 5 TDs splitting time with Trevor Etienne (who transferred to Georgia). The Canes also will need to slow down WR Eugene Wilson III, a sophomore who had an outstanding freshman season with 61 catches for 538 yards and six TDs, and Mertz’s former Wisconsin teammate Chimere Dike, who is now at UF (he had 47 receptions and 689 yards the last time the two played together; he had 19 catches for 238 yards last year). Plus the team also added talented Arizona State WR Elijhah Badger, who had 866 yards in 2022 and 713 this past season. Then there’s also TE Arlis Boardingham, who had 26 catches for 289 yards and four TDs in 2023. Three starters return on the offensive line (LT Austin Barber coming off injury, C Jake Slaughter and RG Dameion George, Jr.) bolstered by San Diego State RT starter Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson. So this is a talented group. On the other side of the ball? That’s a different story. This is a team that really struggled on defense last year ( No. 69 in total defense, 75 in scoring defense, 108 in team passing efficiency defense, 102 in red zone defense ), and there aren’t a lot of signs that will change. The top returners are DT Cam Jackson (32 tackles), LBs Shemar James (55 tackles in eight games prior to injury) and Pup Howard (South Carolina transfer had 19 tackles and a TFL last year in 221 reps) along with CB Jason Marshall (26 tackles, 3 TFL, 10 PBU).

QUESTION MARK AREAS MIAMI CAN EXPLOIT

The Gators’ offense has a lot of firepower and potential, but on the other side of the ball there are issues that Miami can exploit. Last season the Gators ranked No. 79 in rush defense and No. 108 in team efficiency passing defense, so really there was no strong area. It won’t help that the team lost its top pass rusher to Ole Miss (Princely Umanmielen had 7 sacks). UF allowed 38.2 points over its final five games of 2023, and given the Canes’ anticipated explosive offense there’s the likelihood of a lot of points. The Gators hope that returners like DE Tyreak Sapp (2 sacks) and DT Caleb Banks (1 sack) can step up their games give them a solid front, but there really is no obvious significant area of strength at any level of this defense. Florida also only forced seven turnovers all of last season, fewest in the SEC. The Gators hope that some transfers will step up and help – among the additions were the aforementioned Howard along with DT Joey Slackman from Penn, CB Cormani McClain from Colorado and safeties DJ Douglas from Tulane and Asa Turner from Washington.

GAME DIFFICULTY RATING FOR MIAMI

Florida is not generally projected in the SEC’s top 10 out of the 16 teams, but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a very dangerous and talented opponent … it’s moreso a sign of how stacked the SEC is every year. If you want to see what a really difficult schedule looks like, UF faces Miami, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and FSU as 10 of its games. That’s exciting, but absolutely brutal. Even though Florida has the very real prospect of only winning four, five or six games this year, we’d rank this as Miami’s third- or fourth-toughest game behind Florida State and Louisville along with perhaps Virginia Tech. And you could argue that this is one of perhaps two of Miami’s most important games to win along with FSU considering you can’t come out of the gate with a loss to a team like the Gators that has been struggling. Our game difficulty rating, with 10 representing Miami’s most difficult game vs. FSU, would be a 7.5.

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