Sting Factor: Rating the Hylton Stubbs commitment to Miami

The commitment Thursday by 4-star safety Hylton Stubbs of Jacksonville (Ga.) Mandarin to Miami over Florida was big recruiting news on the Fourth of July. But how much did it truly sting Billy Napier’s program? Today, we take a closer look at this development and give it a “Sting Factor” grade.

We’ll do this by rating Stubbs’ value as a recruit to Florida in the overall big picture, from 1 to 5.  A 5 would be the highest impact possible, in terms of playing ability, long-term program impact, recruiting impact and perception. A 1 would mean that I believe this recruit to have a minimal impact both in the short term and long.

GRADE: 3.75

Stubbs, the No. 5 safety and No. 56 overall recruit in the country for the On3 Industry Rankings, has a chance to be an outstanding college player. In the longterm — but also in the short-term. I truly believe he’s a player who would make an early and immediate impact in Gainesville. Trikweze Bridges and Asa Turner are seniors and while there are some talented young players at safety, the chance to play at lot in 2025 probably would be there for Stubbs.

To me, he is more physically advanced as a high school senior than current Gators safety starter Jordan Castell was and Castell saw a ton of action in Year 1. Stubbs has an NFL frame and given some seasoning projects as an all-conference type of player by the time his college career ends. He moves well, is physical and is a ball hawk on the back end. Bottom line: He’s a high-level prospect with the potential to give any secondary a significant boost.

In terms of recruiting impact, missing on Stubbs is rather significant. There aren’t a ton of realistic options at the top of the board as far as we can tell at this moment. The Gators might be the favorite for 4-star safety Bryce Fitzgerald of Miami (Fla.) Columbus and he’s expected to have a July/August decision. But while he’s a talented player, he might not be as sound all around as Stubbs.

Meanwhile, Lagonza Hayward of Georgia and Jaylan Morgan of Tennessee are two other targets of note. Like Fitzgerald, they’re both high-level prospects. Of the two, Florida has a better shot with Hayward. The Gators are battling Tennessee and South Carolina for him. Morgan seems to be trending elsewhere.

Stubbs would have given the Gators an elite safety in the class. With him on board, they’d have been playing with house money. Instead, they’re still without a commit at that position. While we expect Florida to keep recruiting Stubbs, who now is on commitment No. 2, all eyes now turn to Fitzgerald and Hayward. Florida has to land one or both — and neither is a layup.

Perception wise, this one stings. Make no mistake. For starters, Miami is one of Florida’s biggest rivals on the recruiting trail. You expect to lose your share of south Florida prospects to the ‘Canes, but Jacksonville is supposed to be Gator Country.

But what also makes this one hurt is how much effort Florida has put into this recruitment. The Gators led for Stubbs for about a year before he committed to Southern California out of the blue this spring. But Florida continued to battle. After he officially visited the Gators in mid-June, there was a definite Florida vibe. A week later, however, he visited Miami and any and all Gators chatter stopped just like that.

What led Stubbs to Miami? Was it NIL? Was it relationships? Does he have more confidence in that program? Did he think he’d make a bigger impact early? It doesn’t really matter. A loss is a loss and this one stings.

So why isn’t the Sting Factor a little higher? Well, for one thing, given the instability in Stubbs’ recruitment over the past few months there’s always a chance this one isn’t over. A chance . But also, while Stubbs has the ability to contribute early in Gainesville, that young Gators talent we mentioned at the safety position is reason for optimism. Additionally, the last offseason showed they can fill in some of the gaps via the transfer portal. Finally, he’s a safety. Not a quarterback. Not a left tackle. Not a defensive tackle or corner. But a safety, which doesn’t have the same value as those spots.

To the sunshine pumpers, don’t kid yourself, this one stings. But to the doomsdayers, no the world isn’t crumbling.

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