SEC football predictions: Where we picked Florida, Georgia, Alabama

DALLAS — The Florida Gators will be better in Billy Napier’s third season. It just won’t show up much, if at all, in the standings.

That’s my official preseason stance, as reflected in the SEC predicted order of finish I submitted this week as part of the conference’s media days. I put the Gators 12th in the new-look 16-team SEC.

The Gators will benefit from Graham Mertz’s second year under Napier, a deeper roster with more experience and offseason staff changes that addressed every issue from last year’s 5-7 disappointment. But any hope of optimism requires a minimization of what looks like the toughest schedule in the nation (and maybe the hardest in program history). Nine opponents are in the top 25 in ESPN’s SP+ advanced metrics. Seven are conference foes, and the lone exception is at one of the most underrated road environments in the country (Mississippi State).

Another way to look at it is to compare Florida to teams in the same tier, like Kentucky. The Wildcats visit Florida on Oct. 19 the week after hosting Vanderbilt; Florida is Kentucky’s fifth Power Four opponent. Kentucky will be the Gators’ sixth opponent from a major conference, and their matchup comes a week after Florida’s trip to Tennessee. Those factors played a role in my ballot.

Why Georgia will win the SEC

The Bulldogs and Texas were the easy top two teams in the division-less league. Georgia earned the edge based on Kirby Smart’s track record and years of elite recruiting. The addition of Florida transfer Trevor Etienne to the backfield doesn’t hurt.

Georgia’s schedule is also tough without the help of a watered-down SEC East. The Bulldogs could lost to Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee and/or Alabama. But they have enough depth and talent to make it to the league title game and knock off the Longhorns there.

Team I’m slightly higher on: Kentucky

It’s mostly based on my belief in Mark Stoops’ stability. I expect his defense to be strong — lineman Deone Walker is a big-time player to watch — and the offensive line to improve. I don’t know how the Wildcats will do after losing offensive coordinator Liam Coen to the Bucs or with Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff at quarterback, but I think Kentucky can overachieve, as usual. Ninth feels right.

Team I’m slightly lower on: Oklahoma

The Sooners are in a similar position as Florida. Brent Venables is 16-10 entering his third season and faces a schedule that’s only slightly less daunting than the one Napier must confront. SEC games are decided on the line of scrimmage, and the fact that Oklahoma has zero returning starters on the offensive line is a concern. I question whether the Sooners can withstand the SEC grind in Year 1, which is why I put them 10th.

Quick hits

Vanderbilt is ahead of last-place Mississippi State based on the Commodores’ easier schedule and the fact that the Bulldogs have a first-time head coach, Jeff Lebby. … I’m expecting a regression for Alabama after Nick Saban’s retirement, but not a big one. Fourth (barely behind Mississippi) would put the Crimson Tide in contention for a spot in the expanded, 12-team playoff.

Matt Baker’s SEC predicted order of finish

1. Georgia

2. Texas

3. Mississippi

4. Alabama

5. Missouri

6. LSU

8. Texas A&M

9. Kentucky

10. Oklahoma

11. Auburn

12. Florida

13. South Carolina

14. Arkansas

15. Vanderbilt

16. Mississippi State

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