CHICAGO — While not an official event connected to the Democratic National Convention, an Illinois political forum Monday demonstrated that both Illinois and Wisconsin will play prominent roles in the November election.
Organized by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University and WisPolitics.com, the forum featured a well know Wisconsin political analyst, Jeff Mayers, the founder of WisPolitics.com.
“There are basically two things to watch if the energy around (Democratic candidate for president) Kamala Harris will result in her taking Wisconsin’s electoral votes,” Mayers said. “Will the Milwaukee voters turn out in large numbers, and will the young voters return to the polls? Those are the two things I’ll be watching to try to determine the election results.”
Other members of the forum included, Ray LaHood, a former Republican congressman from Illinois and secretary of the Transportation Department in the Barack Obama administration, former Illinois Democratic congresswoman Cheri Bustos, John Shaw, the director of the Simon Institute and Carl Hulse, the chief correspondent for the New York Times Washington Bureau.
“Wisconsin has a solid red area and a solid blue area,” Mayers said. “There’s a small sliver of purple — only 5% of the vote, but in close elections we’ve seen in Wisconsin, that small sliver can make the difference.”
Of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, six are Republican, but that could change due to new congressional district boundaries and the Harris/Walz campaign, Mayers said.
“Only two Wisconsin congressional districts are competitive — the third and the first,” Mayers said. “Both are now held by Republicans, but both are now in play.”
The 1st Congressional District includes Rock County and the cities of Janesville and Beloit. Republican incumbent Bryan Steil is up against Democrat Peter Barca, a former congressman in the 1st district.
All forum members agreed that the November election will be close. But, the new map in Wisconsin and the Harris energy could make a difference.
“Wisconsin is now a large piece of the puzzle. We’ll see how it plays out in the chase for 270 electoral votes,” Mayers said. “I think the changes in Wisconsin has put more pressure on Republicans.”
LaHood remains a strong-willed Republican, but he has joined the Republicans for Harris movement.
“The Republican Party as I’ve known it — the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, George H.W Bush and George W. Bush — no longer exists,” LaHood said. “It’s now the Donald Trump Party.
“The only way to restore our party is to defeat Trump,” LaHood said. “To defeat Trump, you vote for Harris.”
Bustos served in Congress from 2013 to 2023.
“I was in the Capitol on Jan. 6,” Bustos said. “My family said that was the last straw.”
Bustos represented a western Illinois district that went from Springfield to the Wisconsin state line. She said she was well aware of gerrymandering.
“At one time, my district looked as if a rabbit on a skate board drew it,” she said.
Hulse said he’s looking closely at House and Senate races.
“With Montana and Ohio up for grabs, the Democrats could lose the Senate,” Hulse said. “In the House, whichever party wins will have a very slim majority.”
Shaw pointed out that Democrats nationwide are looking to Illinois in efforts to take over the House.
“The Illinois congressional delegation is now 14 to 3 in favor of Democrats,” Shaw said. “Those are seats Democrats want to keep and possibly pick one or two Republican seats off.”
LaHood said if Illinois would go to an Iowa-style redistricting model or a commission, Republicans could pick up congressional seats with a more balanced map. But, he said, that’s unlikely with Democrats holding a supermajority in Springfield.
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