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2024 NFC North race: How Lions, Packers, Vikings or Bears can capture the division crown
By Garrett Podell,
18 hours ago
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The Detroit Lions pounced on the power vacuum left in the NFC North by four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers ' departure from the Green Bay Packers to the New York Jets in 2023 and roared their way to a 12-5 record and a division title, their first since the 1993 season when it was the NFC Central, not the NFC North.
However, the Packers appeared to have found the quarterback they were hoping for in Jordan Love after he threw 18 touchdowns to only one interception in the final seven games of the regular season, which allowed Green Bay to sneak into the postseason as the NFC's No. 7 seed. Once in, they demolished the second-seeded Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in the NFC wild-card round, a game in which they led 27-0. Love finished the regular season with 32 touchdowns passes, the second-most in the entire NFL behind only Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott's 36. The Packers are hoping to lock Love into a long-term extension prior to training camp.
The Chicago Bears appear to have bright future and a dynamic offense after drafting 2022 Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Caleb Williams first overall out of USC and taking college football's 2023 receiving yards leader, Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze , ninth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft on top of trading a fourth-round pick to acquire six-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen from the Los Angeles Chargers . Those new acquisitions join incumbent wideout DJ Moore , whose 1,364 receiving yards in 2023 were the sixth-most in the entire NFL.
A case could be made for any of the four to contend for the 2024 NFC North crown, so let's break down the path for how each team could be atop the division standings after Week 18.
The Lions had a top-five scoring offense (27.1 points per game, fifth-best in the NFL) in 2023, and Detroit did what it had to do to keep that band together this offseason. First, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson remained in place after being a finalist for the Washington Commanders head coaching vacancy that was eventually filled by Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
Then, general manager Brad Holmes went to working re-signing quarterback Jared Goff (four years, $212 million -- third-highest-paid QB in average per year), wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (four years, $120.01 million -- third-highest-paid WR in average per year), and right tackle Penei Sewell (four years, $112 million -- highest-paid OL in average per year) to top of the market extensions.
All three deserved the pay days. Sewell earned the highest Pro Football Focus offensive grade (91.3) out of all the offensive tackles in the NFL last season, St. Brown hauled in 119 passes -- tied for the second-most in the NFL in 2023 and the third-most in a single season in Lions history, just three away from Pro Football Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson's single-season career-high of 122 set back in 2012 -- and Goff threw for the second-most passing yards (4,575) and fourth-most passing touchdowns (30) in the entire league last season.
The 2023 Lions also became the second team in NFL history to have four players total 10 or more touchdowns from scrimmage along with the record-setting 2013 Denver Broncos offense led by Hall of Famer Peyton Manning . St. Brown (10), second-round rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (10), 12th overall pick rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (11) and veteran running back David Montgomery (13) comprise Goff's loaded cast of playmakers.
Defensively, the Lions poured resources into shoring up the interior of their defensive line and the back end of their 23rd-ranked scoring defense (23.2 points per game allowed). Detroit signed defensive tackle D.J. Reader , whose 11.5% quarterback pressure rate was the third-highest in the NFL among players weighing 320 or more pounds last season (minimum 100 pass rushes), to a two-year, $22 million contract in free agency, and they traded a third-round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to acquire former Super Bowl starting cornerback Carlton Davis .
In the draft, they used their first two picks on cornerbacks -- Alabama All-American Terrion Arnold (24th overall pick) and Missouri's Ennis Rakestraw Jr . (61st overall pick). Detroit's retooled defense, plus its top-tier offensive continuity, provides a simple blueprint back to the top of the NFC North in 2024.
Green Bay was thought to be in rebuilding mode after the departure of Aaron Rodgers and a number of other veterans.
Well that rebuild turned into a quick retooling once Jordan Love hit his stride the second half of the 2023 season. After the Packers started the year 3-6, and he threw 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, Love found his groove and powered Green Bay to a 5-2 mark down the stretch while throwing 18 touchdowns to only one interception from Weeks 11-18. That was the best touchdown to interception ratio in the NFL among the 27 passers to throw at least 150 passes in that span.
The Packers then earned the distinction of being the youngest team to win a postseason game since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger (average age of 25 years and 214 days) following their 48-32 demolition of the NFC's No. 2 seed, the Dallas Cowboys, in the wild-card round. They led that game 27-0, and Love set the Packers' single game playoff records for passer rating (157.2) and yards per pass attempt (13) after carving up Dallas' top-five defense for 272 passing yards and three touchdowns while completing 16 of his 21 passes.
An impressive turnaround considering essentially all of Love's pass-catchers were in their first or second season with Christian Watson standing as the old guy of the bunch at age 24. Green Bay nearly toppled the San Francisco 49ers , the No. 1 seed and eventual NFC champs, at Levi's Stadium in a 24-21 loss -- a game in which they led for most of the night.
Since, they have bolstered their roster with the signings of two-time Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs (four years, $48 million) and Pro Football Focus' best safety in coverage (91.2 coverage grade) in Xavier McKinney (four years, $67 million). They also filled key positions of need by firing defensive coordinator Joe Barry and hiring a more aggressive, man coverage based DC in Jeff Hafley on top of drafting well to plug spots at offensive line, linebacker and safety. The Packers came away with USC running back Marshawn Lloyd in the third round, a player some viewed as the draft's top running back.
Another year of Green Bay's youth rounding into form could easily result in an NFC North championship.
The Vikings' path to win the NFC North is incredibly narrow. It hinges on the aforementioned offensive core of Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Jones and O'Connell allowing either Darnold and/or McCarthy to be a game manager and not have to create as much on their own.
Big-time quarterback coach Jordan Palmer , a former NFL QB himself and the younger brother of Carson Palmer , has trained a number of NFL stars over the years: Patrick Mahomes , Josh Allen , Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow . Darnold is another one of his clients. Palmer told CBS Sports in a 2022 phone interview that he believed Darnold still had the talent and the tools to be an NFL starter despite failing to launch with the Jets after being taken third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has since bounced around the league to the Carolina Panthers (2021-2022) and the San Francisco 49ers (2023).
O'Connell said Darnold will enter training camp as the team's QB1 based off of his NFL experience, making this season his last shot to prove he has what it takes. Should he falter, McCarthy, a rookie whose NFL evaluation is more projection than anything less with how little responsibility he carried in Michigan's run-centered offense, would be up next. The playmakers around their quarterback spot are some of the best at their respective positions, so there is a world in which it's possible Minnesota gets league average play out of their quarterback spot.
On the other side of the ball, blitz-happy defensive coordinator Brian Flores has two new edge rushers to work with: Jonathan Greenard , who led the Houston Texans with 12.5 sacks in 2023, and Dallas Turner , the All-American out of Alabama that the team chose 17th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. They should help increase the Vikings' quarterback pressure rate of 32.1% from a year ago, a figure that was the sixth-worst in the NFL despite Flores blitzing an NFL-most 50.7% on quarterback dropbacks.
Minnesota had the league's 13th-best scoring defense (21.3 points per game allowed) despite the pass-rush issue, so if they can affect opposing quarterbacks at a higher rate and their own quarterback plays up to an average level, they could maybe win the NFC North in 2024.
How special is Caleb Williams? Well, he is the only college quarterback in the 21st Century to throw for 30 or more touchdowns, run for 10 or more touchdowns and have five or fewer interceptions in multiple collegiate seasons. He is also inheriting one of the best wide receiver trios in the NFL today and one of the best wide receiver rooms a rookie quarterback has ever had.
Williams is the first top-five pick quarterback to enter the NFL with two wide receivers coming off of seasons in which they both had 1,200 or more receiving yards with Moore and Allen. He and Odunze are also the first quarterback-wide receiver duo to be selection in the top 10 by the same team in the same draft. The Bears also signed 25-year-old running back D'Andre Swift , who ran for a career-high 1,049 yards in 2023 (the fifth-most in the NFL), to a three-year, $24 million contract in free agency. If anyone can succeed right away, it's Williams.
Down the stretch of the season after acquiring edge rusher Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, Chicago's defense allowed 17.2 points per game -- the fewest in the NFL -- which resulted in five wins across the last eight games of the year. The Bears defense having a full year of Sweat plus all the additions on offense does create a conceivable route from worst to first in the NFC North. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud , the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, pulled off this feat -- leading his squad from worst to first -- in the AFC South last season after being selected second overall. It's definitely possible for Chicago in 2024.
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