Economist: It’s not just you; Multnomah County’s workforce is aging

Each month, Jake Procino, workforce analyst and economist from the Oregon Employment Department, releases the most recent economic indicators for the Portland region. And at the Tribune, we try to break the stats down for you.

For much of today’s story, we’ll focus on Multnomah County. But when Procino talks about the “Portland region,” he means a bigger map than many readers realize: Economists use the Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties in Oregon, and Clark and Skamania counties in Washington. That’s the area we’ll refer to in the fifth item below, also known as the Portland MSA.

Here are some takeaways from Procino’s analysis of August’s numbers .

1. Multnomah County is aging

The number of Multnomah workers age 55 and older more than tripled in the 30 years from 1993 to 2022, increasing from 37,000 to more than 110,000, Procino writes.

The share of the workforce 55 and older — which is to say, the percentage of all workers — more than doubled in the same time period from 10% to 22%.

Driving this trend is that the youngest of the large Baby Boomer generation turns 60 in 2024, and they’re more likely to be in the labor force than previous generations were at ages 55 and beyond, Procino says. Many of these workers may plan to retire in the next 10 years, taking their skills and experience with them.

2 Well, the boomers will be replaced by younger workers, right?

Not quite.

That’s because more of us are checking out retirement accounts than are typing up our résumés for the first time.

With the relatively smaller Gen Z generation — roughly, that’s people born between 1997 and 2012 — entering the job market, Procino says he expects workforce aging to continue in the coming years.

And that impact will be felt across industries, as there are fewer laborers available to replace retiring workers.

This is the kind of thing that employers should be keeping track of, Procino writes. “Employers should know the age profile of their own workforce so they can plan accordingly for increased turnover and recruitment efforts due to retirements,” he says. “At a broader level, workforce planners need to know the demographic profiles of entire industries and regions to help gauge the need for future replacement workers.”

3. Which industry has the oldest workforce in Multnomah County?

If you said “print journalism,” well, that’s just snarky.

The health care and social assistance industry has the most workers age 55 and older, with about 16,500. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines “social assistance” as such jobs as community food and housing, vocational rehabilitation services, child day care and the like.

But while health care and social assistance have the oldest workers hereabouts, these sectors account for only a middling 23% of the workforce. Educational services — with 9,988 workers — and professional, scientific and technical services — with 8,730 workers — have the second and third most workers 55 and older in Multnomah County.

4. So Multnomah County’s workforce must be the oldest in Oregon?

Oddly enough, no.

Multnomah’s workforce is aging, but so is everyone else’s. In fact, Procino tells us, Multnomah’s workforce tends to be younger than in Oregon as a whole. Here, the share of workers 55 and older sits at 22%. But for Oregon, it’s 24%.

Compared with other Oregon counties, Multnomah is tied with Washington County for the smallest share of workers 55, which also sits at 22%.

And our county’s workforce also tends to be younger than the United States as a whole, where 24% of the private workforce is 55 or older.

5. Where is the Portland Metropolitan Statistical Area in comparison with other large cities?

Glad you asked.

The oldest population by metro area is for New York, Newark and Jersey City, where a whopping 28% of the combined workforce is 55 or older.

That’s followed by the areas represented by Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Hartford, Connecticut, and Pittsburg. They’re all at 27% of workers 55 or older.

The Portland area sits in the lower third of the top 50 metro areas in the nation.

The smallest percent of workforce 55 and older? That’s shared by three places: the Salt Lake City area, the San Juan, Puerto Rico area, and the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos area of Texas.