The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Gordon , a disturbance northeast of Florida and three tropical waves, according to the center's latest advisory Saturday.
Some weakening of Tropical Storm Gordon is anticipated over the next day or so and the storm is forecast to become a depression by early Sunday. Gradual restrengthening is possible by the middle part of next week, according to the NHC.
Gordon is expected to stay over the open waters of the Atlantic.
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The system off the southeastern coast could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
The disturbance could cause seas and surf to build in from northeastern Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula into next week, according to AccuWeather forecasters. Strong rip currents are also expected.
The NHC puts the chance of formation of this system at 40 percent over the next 48 hours and 50 percent over the next seven days.
The hurricane center is also monitoring three tropical waves.
- An eastern Atlantic tropical wave
- A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles
- A central Caribbean tropical wave near western Venezuela
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 14:
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Gordon
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline.
The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: medium, 50 percent.
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 03N to 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 11N between 18W and 24W.
Tropical wave 2 : A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis along 63W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 14N to 21N between the wave axis and 67W.
Tropical wave 3 : A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W extending from 20N to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 16N to 19N between 71W and 75W.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
The disturbance off the Southeast U.S. coast could cause seas and surf to build in the stretch of the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula into next week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
The system does have the potential to become a named storm. It would be named Helene.
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Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane Center tracking Tropical Storm Gordon, system off Florida, 3 tropical waves
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